2013 Free Agency: The Should Packers Just Avoid It

I'm not predicting, and I haven't read that anyone is predicting, the Green Bay Packers to be players in the 2013 free agent market. That's probably a very good thing because there are teams with a lot of salary cap room and at least some of them seem willing to spend:

Buccaneers Could Once Again Be Active In Free Agency tinyurl.com/amxt7nx
— NFL Trade Rumors (@nfltrade_rumors) February 12, 2013

I'm not entirely confident in the accuracy of this list of the top 2013 free agents, but I wouldn't be want to make any of them one of the highest paid players at their respective positions. Except I think there might be a team or two willing to do it.

As usual, it's probably for the best if GM Ted Thompson stays away from the free agent market. Even the late signings, like re-signing LB Erik Walden last April for $725,000, might have hurt more than it helped because Walden graded out by Pro Football Focus as one of the worst pass rushers in the league. While signing C Jeff Saturday wasn't a success, they made the right decision by deciding C Scott Wells wasn't worth the risk. He was their biggest free agent loss last year but he just underwent another surgery after an injury filled 2012 season.

The brilliant signing of CB Charles Woodson back in 2006 is the free agent exception to the rule. Once every several years, a player like Woodson is available, but in general, if an unrestricted free agent's current team decides he isn't worth the cost, then he probably isn't worth it to the Packers either.

Packers Pro Bowl 2013: Did Anyone Watch It?

With QB Aaron Rodgers and LB Clay Matthews not playing in the Pro Bowl due to injuries, probably nothing that would have kept either of them out of a playoff game but serious enough to pass on an exhibition match, there wasn't much for a Green Bay Packers fan to watch. So I didn't watch it. I'm not sure who did watch it. I know all the Packers' coaches were on the sidelines, but that game has the least amount of coaching possible.

New Insiders blog:Pro Bowl switcheroo gives Saturday one last snap with Manning dlvr.it/2s5N8B #Packers
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) January 28, 2013

When the big story is that legacy selection C Jeff Saturday took a snap with the AFC team, and DE J.J. Watt had a bloody pinkie (he's fine), it doesn't look like I missed much. Except for a lot of scoring.

One good thing that came out of it was that RG Josh Sitton has finally made it to the Pro Bowl. He probably deserved to go after the 2010 season, but he would have skipped it because of his first Super Bowl appearance. He was the team's best offensive lineman last season and now becomes only the third guard to represent the Packers in a Pro Bowl in the last 40 years.

The One Year Tenure of Jeff Saturday

Yesterday I wrote about WR Donald Driver, who's probably played his last season with the Green Bay Packers and expected to retire. Another veteran player, C Jeff Saturday, is not expected back either and he will consider retirement:

Even if he decides to play another season, it won't be with the Packers, who are expected to release Saturday. He's scheduled to make $1.35 million in salary in 2013 and is due a $1.4 million roster bonus. Saturday also has a total of $1 million in per-game roster bonuses.

Like Driver's likely departure, this should come as no surprise after he was benched in favor of C Evan Dietrich-Smith. While it hasn't happened as a member of the Packers, Saturday's had a heck of a career with six trips to the Pro Bowl (even if number six is all due to name recognition) and he was twice named first team All-Pro.

I'm still not expecting Dietrich-Smith to become the new starting center, and they should look to the draft this time for their next starter.

Improving The Packers' Offensive Line

Overall, I was disappointed with the Green Bay Packers offensive line and thought they took a step back last season. However it's not obvious how they can improve either. While C Jeff Saturday didn't have as much left in the tank as the Packers expected and the team will again look for a new starting center, it was a step back for Lang and Bulaga too. Are they part of the problem or can we expect them to bounce back next season?

Here are the offensive line snaps from the Washington Post:

Lineman	Games Started	False Start	Holding	Sacks
Newhouse	16	1	2	10
Lang	15	1	2	11
Saturday	14	0	1	3.5
Dietrich-Smith	6	2	3	2
Sitton	16	1	3	2.5
Bulaga	9	2	3	5
Barclay	4	3	0	3.5

While LT Marshall Newhouse was second on the team with 10 sacks allowed, he actually improved last season. In 2011, he surrendered 11.5 sacks in 13 games starts and there were a couple games when he was just demolished by elite pass rushers (DE Jason Pierre-Paul is one example). He didn't have those awful games again in 2012; it was more of a slow trickle of sacks throughout the season and certainly some of those were due to the coverage. He's not an elite left tackle but he took a step forward last season.

Three Packers Named To The Pro Bowl: Rodgers, Matthews, and Jeff Saturday?

QB Aaron Rodgers' 2012 season isn't as good as was when he won the MVP, and LB Clay Matthews isn't playing as well as he did in 2010 when he finished second in the voting for defensive player of the year, but both of them are playing great and deserve to be named to the Pro Bowl.

QB Aaron Rodgers, LB Clay Matthews and C Jeff Saturday were named to the Pro Bowl by @nfl: pckrs.com/9np7
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 27, 2012

Last week, Bill Barnwell wrote an article at Grantland about who should make the Pro Bowl. What he said about the selection last year of Broncos LT Ryan Clady sums up why C Jeff Saturday was named to the team:

He made the Pro Bowl last year because nobody who votes on the Pro Bowl actually watches offensive linemen.

Saturday didn't deserve to make the Pro Bowl, but name recognition is just as important as anything else, so his selection is business as usual when it comes to the NFL's annual beauty pageant.

For the purests out there, who'd like to see the voters actually select the best player at each position, take heart in the fact that Saturday was voted in as a backup. The starter is Seattle's center Max Unger, who actually deserves a trip to Hawaii and might have played his best game of the season last week when the Seahawks' offensive line demolished the 49ers' defense.

The backup nod probably should have gone to Vikings C John Sullivan, who's great at attacking the second level, which is what I look for in a standout center.

Packers Bench Starting Center Jeff Saturday

Last offseason, the Green Bay Packers made veteran C Jeff Saturday their biggest free agent signing since the team signed CB Charles Woodson in 2006. Now, they've asked him to take a seat on the bench.

Jeff Saturday confirms he has been benched as the #Packers starting center in favor of Evan Dietrich-Smith. Calls it a passing of the torch,
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) December 21, 2012

I'm a little surprised at the timing. If anything, he seemed to have been playing better as the season progressed. While I don't believe he was a problem in pass protection, he did seem to be overruled by RG Josh Sitton at times on blocking assignments. The Packers probably weren't expecting perfection, but Saturday did seem to struggle more than they might have expected from a 13 year veteran. It probably didn't help that he was adjusting to his first non-Peyton Manning led offense in over a decade.

Saturday's weakness was in the running game. He didn't seem to provide any push or the ability to take a linebacker out at the second level. While pass protection is the offensive line's top priority, Mike McCarthy has always spoken about doing more on the ground and I would expect better run blocking from Dietrich-Smith.

Unfortunately, Dietrich-Smith hasn't done a lot earn a starting job this season. He was OK at left guard, but he's fallen behind rookie RT Don Barclay on the depth chart over the past few weeks. Blocking against a bull rush isn't the best part of his game because he's undersized, however, that concern will be lessened by playing at center. He should be more mobile, and better able to move off the line and block a linebacker. What he can add to the running game may be the reason this move was made.

Jennings Has Surgery, But I'm Writing About The Offensive Line

In previous years, losing WR Greg Jennings for an undisclosed amount of time due to surgery for a groin injury would be a big deal, but the Green Bay Packers have basically been without their top wide receiver already this season. He hasn't played at all in October, and over their last three games, QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 12 touchdowns and 1 INT. They'll be fine without him, which might be something to consider when Jennings becomes a free agent at the end of the year.

However the one area that has been a concern this season is the offensive line. While Rodgers had a great game against the Rams, the offensive line struggled to protect the QB and open running lanes for RB Alex Green. It seems like their problems every week can be traced to one player on the line, and against the Rams it was LG T.J. Lang.

His main problem was DT Michael Brockers, who despite having a quiet rookie season was great against the Packers. He had a sack in the first half when he shoved Lang into the backfield, and recorded two tackles for a loss on running plays (though one came when C Jeff Saturday couldn't block him). Overall, Lang appeared to allow two first half sacks, and missed on at least two blocks on second half running plays. Allowing that many plays in the backfield isn't good.

One strange thing was that they seemed to call for more runs to the left side although arguably their best lineman (RG Josh Sitton and RT Bryan Bulaga) play on the right. It was even more strange considering Lang's struggles, and some early game difficulties LT Marshall Newhouse, who had keeping up with DE Robert Quinn. At least Newhouse seemed to improve after the first quarter.

As long as I'm bringing up the bad, I should point out the good. The Rams's star DE Chris Long (13 sacks in 2011, 4 in 2012) was a non-factor and only recorded one tackle against the Packers. Mike McCarthy rarely gives his tackles any help in pass protection and Bulaga was great against the Rams' playmaker.

Packers Defeat Rams For Their Second In A Row, 30-20

It wasn't a dominant win, but I wasn't expecting one against an improved Rams team (who had previously been unbeaten at home and has more talent on defense this season). It was very good to see QB Aaron Rodgers have his second dominant game. Whatever rust he seemed to have at the start of the season is now gone.

Another week, another failure by the offensive line. It's hard to place blame because a new problem seems to develop every week. I want to re-watch the game on the coaches film before I really assign blame. LG T.J. Lang looked like an obvious suspect, but I'm a suspicious of C Jeff Saturday.

The defense gave me 2011 flashbacks as they struggled to tackle and were killed in the middle of the field (that huge catch-and-run on a crossing route sticks out). I'd like to see improvement in both areas next week, but it might not be a big test when they face the Jaguars.

I watched the second-half of the Jaguars game against the Raiders, after QB Blaine Gabbert was injured and QB Chad Henne replaced him, and that is one bad Jaguars offense with Henne. It wasn't all Henne's fault because he didn't practice with the first team offense all week, his offensive line completely vanished from time-to-time, and their most productive receiver (Cecil Shorts) fumbled away the game in OT. They also lost RB Maurice Jones-Drew early in this game and he was standing around on crutches in the second half. It was a bad offense before with Gabbert and MJD, and they might be limping into Lambeau next week in even worse shape.

The Packers 90-man Roster: Center

Last week, the Green Bay Packers hosted their rookie camp in Green Bay, and signed five players out of the 20+ undrafted rookies who attended it on a tryout basis. With the release of practice squad OL Chris Campbell, who was always a bit of a project, their roster is set at 90 players.

At first I was thinking about the expected 53-man roster. But Mike McCarthy has said that he doesn't "concern myself" with roster spots in May. "Create the competition and your roster will come to you." So instead of looking at the players who should make the roster, this is a look at the competition for each position. I'll start with the center position.

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Draheim, Tommie	6-4	309	23	Rookie
Genus, Sampson	6-1	315	24	1
Saturday, Jeff	6-2	295	36	14
Dietrich-Smith, Evan	6-2	308	25	3

With the departure of long time starter Scott Wells in free agency, veteran Jeff Saturday was signed after spending his first 13 seasons with the Colts. He'll be a good fit with their blocking scheme. Mike McCarthy even went as far as to have dinner with Saturday before he signed, something the coach hadn't done in years, which shows how highly they think of him. He may only play for two more seasons, and he was probably going to retire if the Packers hadn't signed him, so he's a short-term solution. But he should be a good one. He'll obviously be on the roster in September.

The big surprise in last April's draft was that the Packers didn't draft a center for the future. The only player they did add was undrafted rookie Tommie Draheim. He had a good college career at San Diego State, and he's the tallest center on the roster with almost ideal height for the position. But he's making the transition from college tackle, and expecting anything from him next season is speculative.

The Press-Gazette ran a nice story on Sampson Genus, who admitted that he wasn't ready to play last season, though he should benefit a lot from the offseason programs. His listed height of 6-1 is very generous but whether it's truly a detriment is yet to be seen. I think the coaches have to like his potential otherwise they would have brought in someone more likely to contribute in 2012 than Draheim.

Evan Dietrich-Smith was a surprise to make the roster in 2009 as an undrafted free agent, he was released in 2010 after a poor preseason, and he was a surprise returning player in 2011. That said, the Packers have little experienced backups to compete with him, and no other player has been given the opportunity to play multiple interior line positions. With the signing of Saturday, he appears to have no shot to become a starter, but they probably want to keep him around for depth. And he'll always have his highlight with Ndamukong Suh.

Overall competition level: weak. Saturday's the starter, Dietrich-Smith is probably not in a real competition since he'll back up three positions, and Genus should have the inside track for a return trip to the practice squad, if he isn't one of the last players to make the 53-man roster. Unless the offseason program really transforms Draheim into a legitimate option, he should be one of the early cuts this preseason.

Ted Thompson Talks About Free Agency

This isn't anything new, at least to me, but Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson spoke to reporters at the recent owners' meeting, and he does a good job of explaining exactly how the Packers proceed in free agency. From JS Online.com:

"I know (people) don't believe me, but we're always active in free agency," Thompson said during a break in the owners meetings Monday. "There have been a couple years here in a row that we haven't actually signed anybody.
"It doesn't mean we weren't active pursuing leads, trying to understand the market, doing all that. In the case of Jeff Saturday we were able to address a specific need that we felt like we needed to address because we were unable to sign Scott ( Wells)."

It's hard to notice because they don't (usually) end up signing anyone, but free agency is still part of their annual process. However, they've done such a good job of building the team (primarily through the draft) over the past few years that they don't have a big need to sign a particular free agent. The annual March free agent frenzy has been a sucker's game, and they've done well to avoid the high priced troubles.

Thinking more about Jeff Saturday, his signing had a perfect alignment of events to make it happen. The Packers had an immediate need to fill after Scott Wells left. Nick McDonald might have been the future, but he was bad last preseason, I understand why he was released, and it left them with no young successor waiting in the wings. Saturday still wanted to play, but he wanted a two-year deal when most teams probably viewed him as a one-year solution. And he's still good enough to start, so the Packers offered him starter's dollars when apparently no other team would. I can understand why no other team offered him a competitive contract, why shake up their center position for a one-year solution, but if there was another team seriously interested in him, it's likely the Packers would have been outbid.

Now the Packers can draft Saturday's replacement, give the rookie a year or two to develop (as they did recently with T.J. Lang), and give Saturday the opportunity to start for a couple more years. It's not what I was expecting a month ago, but it's seemed to work out for both sides.

Bring On The Colts: Packers Sign Jeff Saturday and Daniel Muir

I'm probably not as enthusiastic as most Green Bay Packers fans are about the signing of free agent center Jeff Saturday, who's spent the previous 13 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts. He was ranked as the 5th best center last year and the Packers need a center after Scott Wells signed with the Rams.

But many people expected him to retire. The Colts were willing to offer him another contract, but not as a player. They wanted him to work in their front-office. While he apparently wanted and received a two-year contract, this looks like a one-year stop gap. The Packers should still have a center on their wish list in the upcoming draft. At least now they have a veteran option if the rookie doesn't work out, or a rookie available in case Saturday decides to retire.

I'm really surprised Saturday didn't join Peyton Manning in Denver, but they must not have offered much money and/or showed any interest. GM Ted Thompson doesn't splurge in free agency and isn't known to outbid anyone. While the terms might not be rich, maybe two-years and $6 million, Mike McCarthy had dinner with Saturday, and it appears the team made an effort to show that he was wanted. That bit of respect can go a long way. [It ends up being two-years and $7.75 million, $4 million in 2012, which is richer than I expected. It's probably what they wanted to pay Scott Wells, but Wells was obviously able to find a more lucrative contract with the Rams.]

Another minor move was the signing of DT Daniel Muir. I don't want to make a big deal about it because I don't expect he'll even make the team next year. But with the recent suspension of Mike Neal, and no guarantees that they'll find a good defensive lineman or two in the draft, they could use some more bodies. Muir was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Packers in 2007, and he showed some promise as a pass rushing defensive tackle in his first season. After the Packers traded Corey Williams in 2008, I was expecting Muir to emerge to take Williams's place as a rotational tackle. Instead, he had a poor preseason, and he was released before the start of the 2008 season. He did land with the Colts, and he had a solid 2009 season (10 games started, 52 tackles) during their Super Bowl run. But he was really bad in 2010, He barely played at all last season before his release in November. He's got NFL size (6-2, 312 lbs.) but not NFL ability.

While Tim Tebow Rumors Dominate, Jeff Saturday Visits and Manny Lawson Is Mentioned

The Packers may have interest in trading a 7th round pick for Tim Tebow, if the former 1st round pick signs a new (i.e. cheap) contract. I've mentioned the idea of using a 7th round pick next April on a rookie quarterback, and that's effectively what the Packers are interested in doing here. Except Tebow has a couple years of NFL experience under his belt, which can only help the situation. I don't see why the Broncos would only accept a 7th round pick in return, Tebow has more value than that pick is worth and another team is sure to offer more. I'm not a fan of Tebow, I don't ever think he'd ever be an effective starter in Mike McCarthy's offense, but at that price (a 7th round pick with a cheap contract), he'd be worth it.

With Scott Wells in St. Louis, the Packers brought in former Colts center Jeff Saturday for a visit. I could see their interest in a one-year deal, but if the Broncos are truly interested, I can't imagine him signing anywhere else as the Broncos look to surround Peyton Manning with his former teammates. I still think their next starting center will be arriving in next April's draft, with veteran backup Evan Dietrich-Smith as a Plan B.

The Packers might have some interest in free agent Manny Lawson. At 6-5 and 240 lbs., he might be a better fit as an outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, but he's had a lot of experience as a 3-4 OLB with the 49ers. He's very good against the run, and he's better in coverage than expected, but he brings almost zero as a pass rusher. The former 1st round pick never developed as a pass rusher, and his 6.5 sacks in 2009 seems more like a fluke than a sign of hope. He would add depth to the position, and he might be a good fit in a rotation with Brad Jones, but a Jones/Lawson rotation would hardly be a major upgrade. But still, they might be better than Erik Walden was last season.