2013 Free Agency: The Should Packers Just Avoid It

I'm not predicting, and I haven't read that anyone is predicting, the Green Bay Packers to be players in the 2013 free agent market. That's probably a very good thing because there are teams with a lot of salary cap room and at least some of them seem willing to spend:

Buccaneers Could Once Again Be Active In Free Agency tinyurl.com/amxt7nx
— NFL Trade Rumors (@nfltrade_rumors) February 12, 2013

I'm not entirely confident in the accuracy of this list of the top 2013 free agents, but I wouldn't be want to make any of them one of the highest paid players at their respective positions. Except I think there might be a team or two willing to do it.

As usual, it's probably for the best if GM Ted Thompson stays away from the free agent market. Even the late signings, like re-signing LB Erik Walden last April for $725,000, might have hurt more than it helped because Walden graded out by Pro Football Focus as one of the worst pass rushers in the league. While signing C Jeff Saturday wasn't a success, they made the right decision by deciding C Scott Wells wasn't worth the risk. He was their biggest free agent loss last year but he just underwent another surgery after an injury filled 2012 season.

The brilliant signing of CB Charles Woodson back in 2006 is the free agent exception to the rule. Once every several years, a player like Woodson is available, but in general, if an unrestricted free agent's current team decides he isn't worth the cost, then he probably isn't worth it to the Packers either.

Ted Thompson Talks About Free Agency

This isn't anything new, at least to me, but Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson spoke to reporters at the recent owners' meeting, and he does a good job of explaining exactly how the Packers proceed in free agency. From JS Online.com:

"I know (people) don't believe me, but we're always active in free agency," Thompson said during a break in the owners meetings Monday. "There have been a couple years here in a row that we haven't actually signed anybody.
"It doesn't mean we weren't active pursuing leads, trying to understand the market, doing all that. In the case of Jeff Saturday we were able to address a specific need that we felt like we needed to address because we were unable to sign Scott ( Wells)."

It's hard to notice because they don't (usually) end up signing anyone, but free agency is still part of their annual process. However, they've done such a good job of building the team (primarily through the draft) over the past few years that they don't have a big need to sign a particular free agent. The annual March free agent frenzy has been a sucker's game, and they've done well to avoid the high priced troubles.

Thinking more about Jeff Saturday, his signing had a perfect alignment of events to make it happen. The Packers had an immediate need to fill after Scott Wells left. Nick McDonald might have been the future, but he was bad last preseason, I understand why he was released, and it left them with no young successor waiting in the wings. Saturday still wanted to play, but he wanted a two-year deal when most teams probably viewed him as a one-year solution. And he's still good enough to start, so the Packers offered him starter's dollars when apparently no other team would. I can understand why no other team offered him a competitive contract, why shake up their center position for a one-year solution, but if there was another team seriously interested in him, it's likely the Packers would have been outbid.

Now the Packers can draft Saturday's replacement, give the rookie a year or two to develop (as they did recently with T.J. Lang), and give Saturday the opportunity to start for a couple more years. It's not what I was expecting a month ago, but it's seemed to work out for both sides.

Packers 2012 Free Agency: Wells Leaves, Then Flynn. Who Will The Packers Sign?

Scott Wells to the Rams. Here's my previous post. I expect the Packers will look for his replacement in the draft, and they'll only with a veteran if they can find someone who's good and won't cost a lot. The last time the center position was unsettled, after Wells struggled with injuries in 2008 and Jason Spitz appeared to be ready to take over, they signed Duke Preston from the Bills. Preston was released before the 2009 preseason ended.

Matt Flynn to the Seahawks. Everyone knew he was gone, and the Seahawks had long been rumored as a possible destination, but the Dolphins didn't really put up a fight with a low ball offer. It looks like their owner still believes he's in the hunt for Peyton Manning, and he doesn't want to settle for Flynn. And Flynn picked up on that. Now the Dolphins will end up missing out on Manning, and maybe they'll get desperate and sign Alex Smith. I guess they'll always have Matt Moore. And there's no way the Seahawks should be choosing Tarvaris Jackson over Flynn.



DE Kendall Langford to the Rams for way too much money. $12 million guaranteed? I'm not even sure why the Packers showed interest in a guy with no sacks and 1 QB hit in 2011. He reminds me of another player the Packers showed some interest in back when they were made the switch to a 3-4 defense and needed a DE: Igor Olskansky. For $8 million guaranteed, he lasted two seasons with the Cowboys and gave them 1.5 sacks.

The Packers show some faint interest in Kamerion Wimbley. He'd be a slight upgrade at outside LB, but he's not that much better then Erik Walden. And I'm not a big fan of Walden. The Packers probably made contact with his agent so he knew about their interest, just in case the free agent market turns out to be tepid. However, Wimbley should have no problem finding someone to pay him $10 million per season. It just won't be the Packers.

It's no surprise to see the Packers lose their players who were unsigned at the start of free agency, and then only show mild interest in a couple of other free agents who were/are certain to sign with other teams. To have done otherwise might have messed up their long-term salary cap and ability to re-sign their best young players, so while it's disappointing now, their patience should be rewarded.

Scott Wells Signs With The Rams

RT @jthom1: Scott Wells' contract with the Rams: 4 years, $24 million, $13 million guaranteed. W/incentives it can max out to $25.5 million.
— tom silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 17, 2012

Back in 2005, after Green Bay Packers Marco Rivera was named to his third consecutive Pro Bowl, GM Ted Thompson didn't re-sign the 33 year old right guard. Instead, Rivera signed a five-year, $20 million contract ($9 million guaranteed) that turned out to be an injury riddled disaster for the Cowboys.

Fast forward to 2012 when, once again, Thompson allowed a Pro Bowl offensive lineman, this time Scott Wells, to sign a big free agent contract with another NFC team. Though Wells has been healthy for the past three seasons, he's had some back troubles in the past. And just like Rivera, he's on the wrong side of 30.

Maybe Rivera's story guided Thompson's decision with Wells, but the driving factor may have been that the Packers have too many good players to re-sign. Could they afford to pay Wells $6 million per season, and re-sign T.J. Lang after next season?

Unfortunately, what's done is done, and it's time to look ahead. Tom Silverstein thinks their next starting center will not be a player currently on the roster. Unless the Packers find a low cost veteran free agent to their liking, it probably means they'll be looking at the draft.