Five Key Things To Watch In Camp: Number 2 - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

Every year, the rookie first round selection is a player to watch in training camp, and this year is no exception. Not only was FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix generally viewed as the best free safety available in the 2014 draft, but he replaces their worst starter from 2013 (M.D. Jennings).

Hunch is they just want to get Hyde as much S work as possible, and it's still HHCD's to lose. RT @JVince11 How is Hyde vs Clinton-Dix?
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) June 18, 2014

When camp opens, it'll probably be Micah Hyde working with the first team defense, though the reality is that both players will line up a lot next season. The Packers spend a lot of time with five or six defensive backs on the field, and the opportunity will be there for both players. If there was a knock on Clinton-Dix out of college, it was that he isn't a physical tackler, which makes his ball skills and speed better suited in a deep zone. On the other hand, Hyde is great against the run, which would make him a better choice in the slot and playing closer to the line of scrimmage. They need both players at safety for depth, no other safety except those two and Morgan Burnett should feel secure about their roster spots, but they both have different strengths that might be best suited for a particular role.

Because of the high expectations that come from being a first round draft choice, and their need for improvement at the position, everyone will be watching Clinton-Dix.

Reaction: "Fail Mary" Safety Jennings signs with Bears

According to The Chicago Tribune's Dan Wiederer, Free Agent Safety M.D. Jennings, who has played each of his first three NFL years with the Packers (making headlines during 2012's "Fail Mary" game against the Seahawks), has signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Bears. Last season, Jennings collected a solid 74 tackles for Green Bay, yet did not manage to intercept a single pass. 

So yea, while those 74 tackles are alright, I don't think this guy leaving will really end up mattering that much. I mean let's be honest, he was never a superstar, so why would it?

Packers 2014 Free Agents: The Class of 19

The Packers have 19 free agents of their own to address this offseason, although many of them will be an easy decision. The three players who are either restricted or exclusive rights free agents (which really means they aren't free agents at all) will certainly be back at a small price, and several unrestricted free agents should be considered questionable to return under any circumstances.

M.D. Jennings constantly reminded of Seattle: http://t.co/0gnxfIm7ud pic.twitter.com/11WwdvSzqN
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 21, 2013

Exclusive rights: S Chris Banjo. He was a pleasant surprise in training camp, but he didn't show much on defense when he was given the chance to replace S Jerron McMillian. He'll probably be re-signed because of his play on special teams but he's not a legitimate option on defense.

Restricted: S M.D. Jennings. If Jennings is the starter in 2014, then I'll feel like the offseason was a failure. He didn't make any big plays last season and he had the lowest grade in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus of any defender who was with the team at the end of last season. However, he's certain to return because no team should offer him a contract and the Packers might as well bring him back to push his replacement. He'll receive the minimum tender and provide some depth, at least during the preseason.

LB Jamari Lattimore. He was their best middle linebacker last season, but that was a low bar for him to clear because of down years by A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. However, Pro Football Focus didn't give him a positive grade in either run defense or pass coverage, so it's not obvious he's the answer to their defensive problems either. He might receive a higher tender offer because he was an undrafted player. If they offered the minimum tender then there would be no draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. But contracts are very rarely even offered to restricted free agents, so the chances are low that he'll receive one of any sort from another team.

Unrestricted: TE Jermichael Finley, LB Robert Francois, and DE Johnny Jolly. With all three coming off serious season ending injuries, I'm not expecting these players to receive much interest from any team. Finley's recovering from recent spinal fusion surgery, Francois tore his achilles back in October, and Jolly might need neck surgery. I know Finley was very optimistic in recent radio interviews, but that doesn't mean much. They'll either be let go because of their injury concerns or they'll be re-signed for a low amount.

QB Seneca Wallace. He was only signed because of the disastrous Battle of the Backups last preseason, and he was awful himself when he replaced Aaron Rodgers. He's a good guy but I can't imagine he'll be brought back.

QB Matt Flynn. I'm sure most fans would like to see him re-signed, but the Packers don't have to make a big push for him. He's been on the roster of four different NFL teams in the past 12 months and fallen into the journeyman portion of his career. While he's valuable to the Packers, every other NFL team has probably figured out that he's not the answer to their problems. Hopefully he's re-signed in late March, early April, at the veteran's minimum.

DE C.J. Wilson. He didn't have a terrible season, but it's a very bad sign that he couldn't get any playing time (only 108 snaps last season) when the defensive line was a train wreck. He fell on the depth chart behind the equally unimpressive Josh Boyd, so I don't see why the Packers would want him back in 2014. There's plenty of similar players in the undrafted free agent pool, so I'd expect them to add depth through the rookie class instead of re-signing him.

Those six unrestricted free agents are the easy choices. If they return, and it's questionable whether they should even be brought back in the first place, it'll only be for the veteran's minimum or something loaded with playing time incentives. That leaves ten other unrestricted free agents who could or should be brought back and I'll write about them over the next couple weeks.

On Whether The Packers Should Bench McMillian and Start Banjo

His game against the 49ers was bad, awful, and he has to improve. It might mean that the Green Bay Packers will bench rookie safety Jerron McMillian.

Forgot to tweet this link earlier... Might be time for Banjo to play on defense? http://t.co/zwTrVqwBUC
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) September 12, 2013

This discussion might be irrelevant because S Morgan Burnett was limited in practice on Wednesday and he might be able to play on Sunday. His return would mean a change in McMillian's role anyway. However, the 49ers game might have been a long-term sign that McMillian isn't meant to play deep safety and he's better off as a nickel/slot defender.

If Burnett isn't ready to go, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers bench McMillian, though it wouldn't mean the Packers are giving up on him. In 2011, M.D. Jennings had a lousy game against the 49ers at Lambeau in week 1, he lost track of WR Randy Moss who was wide open for a touchdown, and he didn't play a lot over the following couple of weeks. But then Charles Woodson broke his collerbone and Jennings finished up the regular season as the starter.

The concern is that S Chris Banjo isn't any better. He was recently released by the Jaguars which is not a good sign. While he had a strong preseason, it came against backups. His promotion would be a roll of the dice and it might work out, but I expect the coaches are considering everything they've seen from both players over the past several weeks without focusing exclusively on just one game.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep McMillian ahead of him either. That's not a helpful conclusion, but I don't know what the coaching staff thinks about each player and I wouldn't be disappointed to see them go with either player.

Position Review: Safety

This position has been constantly changing since Nick Collins and Atari Bigby were the starters from 2007 through 2009. Even then, there was a parade of different strong safeties (Aaron Rouse, Derrick Martin, Jarrett Bush) who filled in for all the times that Bigby was injured. Collins's 2011 career ending neck injury forced another change, but now the position seems settled for the near future.

Position Reviews (Defense): Inside Linebacker, Defensive Line, Outside Linebacker
Position Reviews: Offense

Morgan Burnett. He's still got some room to grow, but at age 24 he's just entering his prime and it can take safeties a little longer to develop. Collins didn't become a Pro Bowl performer until his fourth season, which is the same point that Burnett will be at in 2013. A break out season won't cause any salary cap troubles either because he just signed a five-year extension.

M.D. Jennings. The Packers employ an unusual safety rotation in which he's the starter but he's not always on the field (unlike Burnett). He'll be the deep coverage safety, and while it would seem that he should be in a battle for the starting job, he's not because McMillian plays a different role on defense.

Jerron McMillian. The unknown college safety from Maine did so well as Charles Woodson's replacement that Woodson was released. He might never be as good as Woodson, but he should be better than him over the next few years (assuming Woodson keeps playing that long). He'll be asked to play like a pseudo linebacker, looking to help out in run support and in coverage against the slot receiver.

While Burnett will never leave the field, both Jennings and McMillian will come off at times, and sometimes they'll play together. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers isn't afraid to shake up the rotation depending on the opponent. I'm not sure I'm expecting great things from them, but they're going to be a solid unit.

The Packers should expect to keep at least one more safety on the roster but there isn't an obvious candidate. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the cornerbacks was asked to play at both positions this season.

Sean Richardson. The formerly undrafted free agent was a surprise addition to the 2012 roster, but his NFL future is in doubt after offseason neck surgery. I expect he'll be released soon.

David Fulton, Chaz Powell, Chris Banjo. A collection of undrafted players; Fulton in 2013, Powell and Banjo in 2012. Banjo was signed this week after Richardson's prognostic looked bleak. Which one of the three players might emerge as a keeper is anyone's guess. Powell probably has a slight lead because he was actually invited to the NFL combine after finishing college at Penn State and he ended last season on the Packers's practice squad.

Depth at safety has been a concern of mine for the past few years, especially with all the injuries, but the top three safeties appear set for the first time in years. The depth behind them is still an issue, but they should find someone worthy among the collection of young players at corner and safety.

Packers vs. Vikings: The Return of Charles Woodson

When QB Aaron Rodgers was asked about the importance of the bye week, his first comment was that it would give more time for CB Charles Woodson and WR Randall Cobb to get healthy. Luckily, it's worked out for both players and they've been cleared to play on Saturday.

My first thought was that I didn't know how they were going to use Woodson. I don't think he'll take playing time away from any of the cornerbacks. He should replace rookie S Jerron McMillian, who's been taking over Woodson's duties as the hybrid defensive back/linebacker that Woodson has been lining up as on passing downs, and replace S M.D. Jennings at starting safety on early downs.

Cobb was injured while returning a punt against the Titans, so maybe it's for the best if Cobb only plays on offense, where they might be without WR Jordy Nelson and WR Jeremy Ross returns kicks/punts. I wasn't expecting much from Ross when the Packers signed him off the practice squad in early December because there's usually something wrong with their undrafted receivers. They're either too slow, too small, or have bad hands, but Ross seems to be the exception. His 40 time was a little slow at 4.45 coming out of college, but Ross can accelerate through an opening like the best of them. And at 215 lbs., arm tackles aren't effective against him.

Fortunately, LB Clay Matthews is only a little stiff after taking one of the more violent non-injury hits I've seen in a while. While he was airborne, he took a shot and his spine was slung like a whip as he fell to the ground. But Matthews said his spine is fine and nothing was injured internally.

Recap: Packers Win In Detroit, 24-20

With the absence of LB Clay Matthews (and the ongoing absence of CB Charles Woodson) I was pessimistic about the Green Bay Packers' chances of defeating the Lions. Sure, the Lions have a lot of injury problems of their own, but the Packers usually lose games when Matthews is hurt. I expected an offensive shootout, but instead the defense led the way for both teams. It might have been an ugly win, but I'll take a win on the road any week, anyway they can get it.

So the answer to the question of where the Packers would find a pass rush without Matthews: they'd find it everywhere. A lot more blitzing by defensive backs (CB Davon House and S Morgan Burnett each recorded a sack) but also pursuit from LB Erik Walden and LB Dezman Moses. While they recorded the sacks (and Moses forced a fumble), it was the interior push by the tackles that usually forced the action. Rookie DT Mike Daniels was a factor, but all the big guys deserve credit: QB Matthew Stafford rarely had a pocket to step up into. And when they did get a pass off, the young defensive backs made plays, led by a huge game from CB Casey Hayward (5 pass defenses, 1 INT) and the INT returned for a touchdown by S M.D. Jennings. RB Mikel Leshoure had some success on the ground, but the Packers were letting the chance by rarely playing with more than two defensive linemen. Even with some running room available, the Lions preferred to throw the ball, calling 46 pass plays to only 22 carries.

My biggest complaint with the offense was the featured role for RB James Starks. With a make-shift offensive line, I'm sure Mike McCarthy wanted to keep the pressure down on QB Aaron Rodgers with a conservative game plan, but the result was a stalled offense. Starks had 26 touches while WR Jordy Nelson, WR James Jones, and WR Randall Cobb combined for only 23 carries and targets. While the Lions defense didn't have a huge statistical day, DT Nick Fairley was huge with 2 sacks and 2 tackles for a loss, and he probably disrupted at least a couple other plays. The overall conservative strategy was sound and they might not have had anymore success with a pass heavy attack, but a few more pass plays might have gotten the offense going, and Nelson, Jones and Cobb should combine for more plays than Starks.

Poor K Mason Crosby. I've been on his case all season, and he came close to hitting bottom in this game with two recorded misses (plus the other one he missed while he was being iced by the Lions). The coaches probably have more confidence in Crosby than any street free agent they could bring in at this point, so releasing him seems like an extreme reaction. His job security might be better addressed in the offseason. Instead, they should focus on restoring his confidence in the interim. Kicking is a pretty inconsistent business, and Crosby's gone through more good streaks than bad. The odds are more likely that he'll kick himself out of his slump instead of falling down further.

Woodson Out For A Month With A Broken Collerbone

I'm not sure how someone has a stealthy collarbone injury, but Green Bay Packers' CB Charles Woodson has managed it.

I talked to him after the game last night. He seemed fine. RT @jayglazer Big loss for packers. Charles Woodson broken collarbone out 6 weeks
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) October 22, 2012

Mike McCarthy said that this break isn't as serious as the one Woodson suffered during the Super Bowl. So, fortunately, the time table for his recovery isn't as long as it could have been.

While I'm not a fan of CB Jarrett Bush, his best role on defense is when he takes Woodson's place as the slot cornerback. He doesn't play as tight or take as many chances, but maybe that's not such a bad thing since he's not as good.

I expect M.D. Jennings will take over as the starting safety (maybe Jerron McMillian will officially be named the starter but it means more playing time for both of them), and Bush will take over when Woodson would have moved into the slot at cornerback.

Overall, it's a net loss for the Packers, but maybe not quite as big as it would have been in previous seasons. The stats show that Woodson isn't making as much of an impact (through 7 games in 2012, 1 INT and 5 pass defenses; compared to 2011 with 7 INTs and 17 pass defenses in 16 games). He isn't a cure-all to the Packers tackling problems either because in 2011 he was among the Bottom Three with 15 missed tackles.

However, their young secondary (Jennings, McMillian, Casey Heyward) might really miss the leadership that he brings to the field. One silver lining is that his injury comes at an opportune time. Their next two opponents before the bye week are among the worst offenses in the NFL (Jacksonville and Arizona). Unfortunately, his absence might really be noticed during road games at Detroit and the NY Giants.

If You Allow A Touchdown To Randy Moss, You Find A Seat On The Bench

At first, it was hard to tell which defensive player was supposed to be covering a wide open Randy Moss when he caught a touchdown last Sunday. S Morgan Burnett was the closest player, but he was jumping up-and-down angry and he seemed to be mad at someone else. LB D.J. Smith didn't drop back in coverage, but that might not have been his responsibility. Finally, S M.D. Jennings came into the screen right after the catch, and I did notice that rookie S Jerron McMillian played during the second half. Jennings has now confirmed it:

Packers S M.D. Jennings on getting pulled in favor of Jerron McMillian: "I blew my opportunity, so they put 'J' in and gave him his chance."
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) September 11, 2012

I've never been very impressed with M.D. Jennings, but he had never before seemed like an obvious liability. A blown coverage is the type of play that keeps a young defender glued to the bench. Back in 2009, the Packers released one safety, and benched another, after Aaron Rouse (Bengals in week 2) and Derrick Martin (Vikings in week 8) botched assignments in the secondary.

I don't think McMillian is ready, and neither do the coaches if he was a reserve to start the season, but I do like his potential. Maybe the solution is to let Charles Woodson spend more time at safety, but it's not like the situation at cornerback is really solid either. Bears QB Jay Cutler has noticed the Packers' problem.

On a somewhat related note, the Packers have one less player in the defensive backfield with the release of CB Brandian Ross because they needed a roster spot for LB Erik Walden. Ross was a surprising addition to the 53-man roster, and with 11 defensive backs on the roster, I thought one of them would have to go to make room for Walden, once he was reinstated.

I expect the Packers will use Walden on special teams, and maybe even a few plays on defense. He will be good in that role; he's just not an every down starter. I wouldn't be surprised to see M.D. Jennings left inactive so that Walden can play on Thursday night.

While Charlie Peprah Was Released, The Packers Demoted Sam Shields

One thing I got wrong when I wrote about the new alignment of the Green Bay Packers's secondary was that Sam Shields would still be the nickel back. Instead, M.D. Jennings played in the nickel defense. From Tyler Dunne:

Charles Woodson lined up at safety in the team's base alignment, a defense used 25% of the time last season. But in the team's nickel package -- which Dom Capers used much more often -- Woodson slid down into the slot and M.D. Jennings was with the No. 1 defense at safety. For now, Jarrett Bush ran with the starters at right cornerback.

Dunne opened his article with an earlier quote from Mike McCarthy, who said he doesn't talk about his players as a "starter" because it's all about how often his players are on the field. Just because they don't start the game on the field doesn't mean they won't be playing a lot.

So Woodson is the "starter" at safety, but he'll probably spend more time at cornerback. The coaches now think Bush is their 4th best defensive back, and Jennings is their No. 5. The loser here is Shields, who seemed to hold onto his nickel spot during the OTAs (of course, it seemed like Charlie Peprah was going to be the starter too), but now he'll have to play his way back onto the first team nickel defense.

The rookies aren't playing a role in this discussion, yet, but a lot can change over the course of a training camp. However, I'm not expecting much from Casey Hayward or Jerron McMillian. Though Shields himself came out of nowhere as a rookie in 2010 to become the nickel back, the Football Outsiders 2012 Almanac has a great discussion about Cowboys rookie CB Morris Claiborne, and why no one should expect great things from rookie defensive backs.

In the end, I don't see a big mistake being made. I'm no fan of Jarrett Bush, but Sam Shields played poorly last season. It's hard to make a strong case that another season from Charlie Peprah is better than giving M.D. Jennings a chance at safety. These might be marginal improvements, but they don't look like a big step back either, and Shields will still be given an opportunity to turn himself around.

The entire situation reminds me a little bit of the Baltimore Ravens, who seemingly run out a new set of starting cornerbacks every season while still having a strong pass defense. The changes in personnel don't seem to make a huge difference because their pass defense is keyed by a strong pass rush, and it might actually struggle for the first time in many seasons because of the likely absence of Terrell Suggs. On the other hand, the Packers made a big push to improve their woeful pass rush by the addition of Nick Perry. The combination of Bush and Jennings might appear to be a big improvement in 2012, if the pass rush is a lot better.

The Charlie Peprah Era Comes To A Close

As the Journal-Sentinel noted, it was a little surprising that the Green Bay Packers chose to release Charlie Peprah. I'm surprised that they didn't release him sooner. His 2011 season was horrible, and he was one of the players responsible for the team's worst play of the season: the Hail Mary touchdown pass against the Giants. I don't know if they did him a favor by releasing him now, but at least he's got a month to try and catch on with another team.

Peprah was originally with the Packers as a special teams player for three seasons before he was released in 2009. He re-signed in early 2010, the Packers were really looking for some help on special teams, but he looked better on defense, and he was a solid replacement for the injured Morgan Burnett in 2010. Unfortunately, his 2011 season was a giant step back, despite the five interceptions he recorded, and he was rated by Football Outsiders as one of the worst players at his position.

Of course, the next question is who will replace him at safety? They drafted a safety in the 4th round (Jerron McMillian) and second year player M.D. Jennings is returning, but neither one was seriously considered as a starter during the offseason. There was some talk of moving Charles Woodson to safety, but no one from the Packers seemed in favor of that move. I didn't think much of it either: why move Woodson if he's so good defending receivers in the slot?

However, when the first practice began, it was Woodson on the field at safety and Jarrett Bush at cornerback (another player involved in the Hail Mary fiasco). I'm never in favor of more playing time for Bush, but it's hard to say that Peprah is a better player. Mike McCarthy did an interview a few months ago during which he regretted not giving more playing time to Bush last season, so he's a believer in his ability as a corner and the team did just re-sign him to a new contract. I wouldn't be surprised to see Woodson stay at safety this season.

Bush had been playing the understudy role to Woodson for at least the last couple seasons, so I expect he'll now take over his job in 2012, if Woodson stays at safety. Bush might technically start at corner ahead of Sam Shields, but when the defense goes into the nickel, Shields will be lining up against the outside receiver, and Bush will be covering the receiver in the slot.

I wouldn't think that choosing Bush over Peprah, which isn't a straight swap since it requires moving Woodson to safety, to be a big improvement, but obviously the coaches and GM Ted Thompson disagree. I'm not crazy about either option, but things couldn't get any worse than they were last season, so it doesn't hurt to try.

At Safety, The Packers At Least Have a Lot of Options

For whatever reason, under GM Ted Thompson, the Green Bay Packers haven't made a big effort to stock their safety position with depth. When S Atari Bigby struggled with injuries in 2008 and 2009, his absence exposed their lack of depth. It was so bad in 2008 that they switched Charles Woodson to safety for one game, and in 2009, they even gave LB Brandon Chillar some reps at the position.

Actually, at the start of the 2011 season, the Packers had as much depth at safety as they've had in recent years. Nick Collins hadn't missed a game since 2007 and Morgan Burnett had returned from an ACL injury. Charlie Peprah was held in reserve as the top backup after starting in place of Burnett for most of the 2010 season. Instead the position was blown open by the (probably) career ending neck injury to Collins and the collapse of Peprah, who was bad throughout the season, before getting embarrassed during the playoff loss to the Giants.


The Packers haven't uncovered every stone to upgrade at safety, but selecting Jerron McMillan in the 4th round and signing two undrafted rookies is a big haul for them. Obviously the release of Collins has made this more of a priority than it had been in recent years, but the 2012 draft class was weak at safety so it's understandable that they went with some high risk/high reward prospects, especially when they needed to use their high draft choices to bolster the pass rush and defensive line.

JSOnline.com takes a closer look at M.D. Jennings, who the Packers saw something in last year after signing him as an undrafted free agent. I'm not a believer in him yet, but I expect he'll get a much longer look this preseason with a full offseason to prepare, and with the expectation that he should be the top backup, or even the starter alongside Burnett.

He's probably a long-shot to make the roster, but they also signed Micah Pellerin, an undrafted rookie out of Hampton, to give them another option. According to NFL Draft Scout, he's undersized, but showed good coverage skills at the East-West Shrine Game. Right now they need as many options as they can get.

Will The Packers Draft A Defensive Back?

There were two different, but related, articles about the Green Bay Packers defensive backfield.

First, the Press-Gazette spoke with GM Ted Thompson about Nick Collins and he said he won't specifically target a safety in the draft. The Packers won't meet again with Collins until after the draft, and even then, they may not know when (or if) he'll ever play again. Thompson never talks much about his draft plans, but the team's immediate needs have to play some part in the decision process (despite his denial). They do have to manage the roster and make sure they have quality players at every position.

Second, the Packers are "looking at a lot of DBs." These guys look like potential undrafted free-agents, but they'll probably need a couple of those guys too. I wouldn't expect much from it, although that's how they acquired CB Tramon Williams.

Bottom line: they can't start Charlie Peprah next season at safety. After a solid 2010 season, he fell to earth last season with poor coverage and poor tackling. If Collins is out, then the list of candidates to even compete with Peprah is short. I'd rather they had a young veteran to challenge Peprah, but they need a more talented option than either M.D. Jennings or Davon House. They'll have to find that player in this draft. The safety class isn't great, and I'm no fan of moving Charles Woodson to safety, though there are a lot of talented prospects at corner. They should use a high draft choice to find a better option at safety.