Packers 2014 Free Agents: The Class of 19

The Packers have 19 free agents of their own to address this offseason, although many of them will be an easy decision. The three players who are either restricted or exclusive rights free agents (which really means they aren't free agents at all) will certainly be back at a small price, and several unrestricted free agents should be considered questionable to return under any circumstances.

M.D. Jennings constantly reminded of Seattle: http://t.co/0gnxfIm7ud pic.twitter.com/11WwdvSzqN
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 21, 2013

Exclusive rights: S Chris Banjo. He was a pleasant surprise in training camp, but he didn't show much on defense when he was given the chance to replace S Jerron McMillian. He'll probably be re-signed because of his play on special teams but he's not a legitimate option on defense.

Restricted: S M.D. Jennings. If Jennings is the starter in 2014, then I'll feel like the offseason was a failure. He didn't make any big plays last season and he had the lowest grade in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus of any defender who was with the team at the end of last season. However, he's certain to return because no team should offer him a contract and the Packers might as well bring him back to push his replacement. He'll receive the minimum tender and provide some depth, at least during the preseason.

LB Jamari Lattimore. He was their best middle linebacker last season, but that was a low bar for him to clear because of down years by A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. However, Pro Football Focus didn't give him a positive grade in either run defense or pass coverage, so it's not obvious he's the answer to their defensive problems either. He might receive a higher tender offer because he was an undrafted player. If they offered the minimum tender then there would be no draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. But contracts are very rarely even offered to restricted free agents, so the chances are low that he'll receive one of any sort from another team.

Unrestricted: TE Jermichael Finley, LB Robert Francois, and DE Johnny Jolly. With all three coming off serious season ending injuries, I'm not expecting these players to receive much interest from any team. Finley's recovering from recent spinal fusion surgery, Francois tore his achilles back in October, and Jolly might need neck surgery. I know Finley was very optimistic in recent radio interviews, but that doesn't mean much. They'll either be let go because of their injury concerns or they'll be re-signed for a low amount.

QB Seneca Wallace. He was only signed because of the disastrous Battle of the Backups last preseason, and he was awful himself when he replaced Aaron Rodgers. He's a good guy but I can't imagine he'll be brought back.

QB Matt Flynn. I'm sure most fans would like to see him re-signed, but the Packers don't have to make a big push for him. He's been on the roster of four different NFL teams in the past 12 months and fallen into the journeyman portion of his career. While he's valuable to the Packers, every other NFL team has probably figured out that he's not the answer to their problems. Hopefully he's re-signed in late March, early April, at the veteran's minimum.

DE C.J. Wilson. He didn't have a terrible season, but it's a very bad sign that he couldn't get any playing time (only 108 snaps last season) when the defensive line was a train wreck. He fell on the depth chart behind the equally unimpressive Josh Boyd, so I don't see why the Packers would want him back in 2014. There's plenty of similar players in the undrafted free agent pool, so I'd expect them to add depth through the rookie class instead of re-signing him.

Those six unrestricted free agents are the easy choices. If they return, and it's questionable whether they should even be brought back in the first place, it'll only be for the veteran's minimum or something loaded with playing time incentives. That leaves ten other unrestricted free agents who could or should be brought back and I'll write about them over the next couple weeks.

Packers Sign Backup QB Matt Flynn

I guess his elbow is OK. Per Chris Mortensen, the Packers are going to sign QB Matt Flynn:

Matt Flynn is signing with the Packers, per sources.
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) November 12, 2013

I'm glad to see Flynn get another chance, even if he isn't the same player he was back in 2011. But he's not the answer at quarterback either. Here is how each of the three backup QBs have played in their past three games when they were the primary QB:

Player	Pass Attempts	ESPN's QBR
Tolzien	39	26.4
Wallace	19	7.7
Flynn	32	2.9

According to ESPN, a QBR of 50 is an average quarterback (think Sam Bradford) while 25 is really bad (think Brandon Weeden). Tolzien's clearly the best of the bunch, even if the results were awful last week.

Signing another quarterback was an absolute must because it's not clear that Seneca Wallace will be able to play next week. Even if he is damaged, he's a better option than John Skelton.

So, Why Seneca Wallace?

Usually GM Ted Thompson has nothing to say but when a reporter like Tom Pelissero gets him to open up he has some interesting things to say. He doesn't say anything bad about anybody, in this interview he takes the blame for when talking about things (like the backup QB position) that haven't worked out. Most of the interview is about where he's been and where he's going in the future, but one question was about why QB Seneca Wallace is the backup before his first start of the season:

Q. So, why Seneca Wallace?

A. I had a pretty good comfort level with him. I was in Seattle when we drafted him out there. I know the kind of person and I know his football intelligence. I know he's got good mobility, has confidence as a player.

My sitdown with #Packers GM Ted Thompson: jinxes, backup QBs, Favre, his future, the evolution of scouting and more. http://t.co/boOl3N0wWX
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) November 9, 2013

Packers listed as just 2.5 point favorites for this Sunday's Eagles game

No surprise here as the Packers, now without star QB Aaron Rodgers, have been listed as just 2.5 point favorites for their game this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are just 4-5, but beat up the Raiders pretty good last week, 49-20, behind 7 TD passes from Nick Foles. So if you think this game's gonna be an easy win, you're wrong. 

In my opinion, the Pack will be able to pull this one out as long as they play well on defense. For the past few years, Green Bay just never tried on D. So far this season, that's kinda changed, but in Monday's game against the Bears, everything that's been going right lately started going wrong again. They left receivers open, they didn't rush the QB enough, and most importantly, they couldn't get themselves off the field. Maybe it's just me, but the Bears picked up a lot of first downs Monday night by just throwing to open guys. That can't happen on Sunday. They gotta come in with a better game plan and maybe, just maybe, they'll be able to win. 

Looking ahead in the Packers schedule

As you all know, last night's Packers game could not have gone worse. Not only did the Pack lose a game on national TV to the Bears, but they lost their star QB, Aaron Rodgers, for around 3 weeks. Before last night's MNF appearance, I thought Green Bay would finish 14-2. But now, I'm not even sure they'll go 10-6. 

Luckily, the Packers next three games are all pretty easy, as they'll host the Eagles, visit the Giants, and then host the Vikings. Now, in my opinion, they'll win those two home games. They won't win them by much, but they'll still win them. As for the game in New Jersey, that one will be a loss. The Giants are getting better, the Packers are getting worse, and it's at MetLife Stadium. That's just a recipe for disaster. 

After those three games, which will likely be started by Seneca Wallace, Aaron Rodgers could return for the Thanksgiving game in Detroit. If Wallace plays on that Thursday, I see a blowout loss. But if Rodgers is healthy by then, I predict a pretty solid victory. 

The Pack's post-Thanksgiving schedule, with the exception of the Bears game, is very easy. By then, #12 will definitely be back, so them losing more than 1 of their final 4 contests is very unlikely. But still, it could happen. I'm not gonna guarantee them any late-season wins. 

 

Offensive Review: Packers Lose To Bears, 27-20

This game didn't hurt as bad a loss as either of their last two playoff losses, but otherwise it was their worst regular season loss in the last four years. Losing to the Bears was bad enough but it was the way they lost it.

More definitive scans today but initial tests showed small fracture in Aaron Rodgers' collarbone that could sideline him about three weeks.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 5, 2013

I'm a little surprised it's a collarbone injury. When CB Charles Woodson broke his collarbone, he stood on the sidelines with a sling and his shoulder was sore to the touch. Rodgers didn't look in that much pain on the sidelines and he wasn't wearing a sling. So now we know and it's time to look at what's going to happen over the next couple weeks.

QB Seneca Wallace. I've watched him a decent amount over the years so I think what we saw on Monday night is pretty much what he is. He's not very accurate (career completion percentage under 60 percent) and he can't throw it deep. In that regard, he's exactly the worst fit at quarterback for their current team. They need a deep threat to keep the safety out of the box against RB Eddie Lacy and Wallace doesn't provide that sort of threat. As an added negative, Wallace seemed to have zero pocket awareness. The Bears didn't provide that much of a pass rush, but he kept running into the oncoming defenders and he didn't step up to avoid the rush. He'll get a little better after a week of reps with the first team offense, but not by much.

QB Scott Tolzien and QB Matt Flynn. They just gave Tolzien a raise, so they obviously like him. However, he's not much of a deep passer either. There are no NFL highlights to watch, but here's Tolzien against Ohio State in 2010. The video doesn't have every pass attempt, but I only saw one pass attempt of greater than 20 yards. He's probably the same type of player as Wallace with the hope that he's actually better, but I doubt he'll be named the starter.

Signing Flynn seems like an obvious move; he was great in 2010-2011 and he knows the offense. But that might as well have been a life time ago. Since then he's been battling injuries and now he's been released by two NFL teams (Buffalo and Oakland) this season after getting beaten out by undrafted rookies. The Packers could sign Flynn to provide them with three weeks of depth. Still, the current competition at quarterback is so weak that I wouldn't rule anything out.

The saving grace is that the next three games, assuming Rodgers is out for only three games, are all winnable without him. If QB Nick Foles brings his record setting day from Oakland to Green Bay, they'd have a tough game anyway, but the Eagles have been all over the place (they have the highest variance from week-to-week of any NFL team on offense) so it's just as likely they'll tank next week. Then they have two games against two of the worst teams in the NFL (at Giants, home for Vikings). There's so little margin for error now that they could lose all three of those games, but it's definitely the easy part of their schedule.

Packers Sign QB Seneca Wallace and Practice Squad

At least the Green Bay Packers didn't sign QB Tim Tebow as their backup quarterback.

Packers sign QB Seneca Wallace to active roster, begin building practice squad http://t.co/KuIAJ8oj7r
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 2, 2013

Wallace is not a good QB, he was released twice in August and he didn't step on the field in 2012, but he's probably the best veteran backup they could have found at this point. According to Football Outsiders, he had a positive ranking in 2010, and he was OK in 2011 which is something considering his completion percentage took a surprising double-digit dive from the previous two seasons. If he can show a better feel for the pass rush and complete over 60% of his passes, he'll be an improvement over Vince Young or Graham Harrell.

The bigger surprise is that B.J. Coleman lost his spot on the practice squad to Scott Tolzien. I'm not a fan of Coleman, who didn't show a lot of improvement from his rookie preseason, and I'm glad to see a former Badger QB signed by the Packers. But it's been a rough year for Tolzien. He was well liked by the Chargers and 49ers in his first two NFL stops, but the 49ers seemed to have lost interest even though their backup QBs have been far from impressive. Maybe he's failing to improve, just as Coleman, and he might not be long for the roster either.

As for the rest of the practice squad:

OG Bryan Collins. I don't know much about Collins, other than he was released early by the Texans. The Packers appeared to have wanted OG Patrick Lewis, but he was claimed by the Browns. I don't feel too bad about it; Lewis was unimpressive in their loss to the Chiefs. Collins's signing seems like an audition. He too might not stay long on the PS.

WR Charles Johnson. I'm glad to see him back. He didn't make any plays against the Chiefs but he's got great size (6-2) and he looked like a potential deep threat. He was held back by a broken offense and he didn't get onto the field in their first couple preseason games because of an injury. I hope he can take another shot at the 53-man roster later this season or in 2014.

CB James Nixon. Of the reserve CBs, he was the one who was burned the least. Since the defense plays with more five or more defensive backs so frequently, they probably need depth in the secondary more than at any other defensive position.

TE Jake Stoneburner. I don't think they really need another TE, but at 6-3 and 249 lbs. he's got the size to play on the scout team at a couple different positions, and he's probably valuable on special teams.

WR Myles White. I really liked him at times, but then he'd struggle hanging onto the ball. He seemed to be a good route runner. I don't expect him to be a long-term keeper but he could fill in as a slot receiver (if he'd stop fumbling).