How The Packers Defensive Line Will Look Next Season Without Mike Pennel

It was announced last week that the Green Bay Packers will be without DT Mike Pennel for at least the first four games of the 2016 season because he violated the NFL's substance abuse program.

What does Mike Pennel's suspension mean for the Packers' off-season decisions, such as resigning B.J. Raji? https://t.co/4VxYqLZ4Q9

— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) February 20, 2016

After the defense put together a terrible 2013 season, Mike McCarthy made some changes that brought more versatility to the group. One change was the departure of NT Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji was switched from end to NT. They also brought in free agents Letroy Guion and Julius Peppers, and Peppers in particular brought a lot more versatility with him. Often during that 2013 season, the Packers looked slow up front when Raji and Pickett were lined up together, and those changes gave the defense more options.

In 2015, Raji and Pennel played on 444 and 287 snaps, respectively, and they rarely lined up together, so the defense only had one tackle at least 30% of the time. While the NT isn't very important to their defense, they still need a couple of big bodies for the goal line.

With Datone Jones likely moving to outside linebacker next season, it seems like the Packers have abandoned the idea of having any defensive ends at all. Apparently it's all tackles and outside linebackers going forward. That would fit with their goal of versatility because their linebackers can be defensive ends on passing downs, effectively using a 4-3 defensive scheme.

They probably need only four defensive tackles next season. Daniels and Guion have already been re-signed, and Pennel should return after his suspension (assuming he makes the team). DT Josh Boyd should be healthy after a season ending ankle injury, though he's never been very good, and rookie DT Christian Ringo made a "big-time" jump last season. Re-signing Raji might push Boyd or Ringo out of their plans, or maybe Guion will replace Raji since Guion's legal problems appear to be over. In any case, it doesn't look like they have a need for an outside free agent or high draft choice. Maybe a late draft choice like USC's Antwaun Woods could provide some depth. Woods might be a good fit because he doesn't have a history of injuries and he hustles, and he could play the same role that Ringo did last season on the practice squad.

While Pennel's suspension doesn't help them next season, it doesn't look like they'll have to adjust their offseason plans in free agency or the draft to make up for his absence either.

The Packers Shouldn't Be Tripping Over Themselves To Re-Sign Their Defensive Free Agents, Except...

The Packers have already re-signed and extended two potential free agent defensive lineman, but there are other defenders who played significant roles in 2015 that could become unrestricted free agents next month.

Player	Position	Age	PFF Grade	2015 Snaps
Casey Hayward	CB	26	5.2	1020
Mike Neal	LB	28	-12.7	822
Nick Perry	LB	25	3.1	365
B.J. Raji	NT	29	-4.6	472
Sean Richardson	S	26	-0.8	98

And of those players, there's only one that'll draw significant attention in free agency.

#Packers Hayward Earning Big Payday, Too - Even without an interception, Casey Hayward has been productive for ... https://t.co/BY7sVtyXYP

— Packers on Scout (@PackersOnScout) December 14, 2015

I'm a fan of CB Casey Hayward. Looking only at conventional stats, he underwhelmed with no interceptions and only 7 pass defenses in 2015. But that's a sign that teams don't throw at him despite him being on the field all the time (see 1020 snaps in 2015 above), and the advance stats like him, having earned a grade of 5.2 from Pro Football Focus last season. Maybe he wasn't targeted because the Packers relied heavily on two rookie cornerbacks last season, and most teams went after the rookies instead, but this wasn't Hayward's first good season. He's been a reliable player ever since he was drafted in 2012, and other teams are going to notice. While teams are burned badly by free agent cornerbacks every year, they always seem to spend irrationally every March. I'm sure GM Ted Thompson will make Hayward an offer but I think Hayward will get more from another cornerback desperate team.

This is LB Mike Neal's second run through unrestricted free agency. He drew little interest back in 2014 and he hasn't done anything to improve his worth since then. But he shouldn't cost too much and the Packers might prefer the limited player they know (see Guion, Letroy) rather than the unknown player they'd have to find to replace him. It's not important to re-sign him but I won't be upset if they do.

While LB Nick Perry is the only defender other than Hayward listed here with a positive PFF grade, his positive grade was from his run support, not his pass rush. The irony is that Perry entered the NFL with a reputation as a great pass rusher at USC and a complete unknown as a run defender. He's obviously worked hard to improve the weakest part of his game. Unfortunately his best skill (pass rush) has either stalled or vanished last season. The Packers declined his fifth-year option last year and he didn't do much to prove them wrong. Whether it was due to injuries or a lack of trust, the former 1st round pick only logged 365 snaps at outside linebacker when there wasn't any serious competition blocking his path to more playing time. I would guess that the Packers might be willing to give him a one-year contract to provide depth, but maybe another team will be more aggressive on giving him a fresh start and seeing if they can find the talent that made him a top prospect.

Like Neal, this is not NT B.J. Raji's first go around as an unrestricted free agent, and he's drawn little interest from other teams in the past. He didn't do much to stand out last season, but if they don't re-sign him then they'll absolutely have to find someone else like him. With $23 million of room available under the cap, there's no reason to go cheap on the defensive line. While Raji could be replaced, his position needs to be filled, and only the Jets's NT Damon Harrison is clearly a better free agent who might be available. GM Ted Thompson will spend for a star player but Harrison doesn't look like that type of player. The Packers know what they've got with Raji as a run stuffer (even if he's becoming a bit injury prone) and that's probably better than spinning the draft roulette wheel.

Unfortunately this is probably the end of DB Sean Richardson's career.

In the end, other than Hayward (the Packers have depth at CB if he leaves) they should probably push to re-sign Neal, Perry and Raji because they should be affordable and they'd leave holes on the roster if they departed. And the Packers already need to add another inside linebacker (or two) and need more depth at every offensive skill position. This team is good enough now to win a championship and they should try and keep it all together, as best as they can.

The Packers Re-Signed Letroy Guion For Reasons...

UPDATE: The contract only has $500K in guaranteed money, which was probably something Guion had to do because of his past history of arrest and suspension. It still doesn't change the fact that the Packers are counting on him in 2016 because they have few in-house options. But at least if he is a bust next season, then they can move on from him at little cost.

This free agent period has already been a success for the Green Bay Packers because they re-signed DT Mike Daniels back in December. His possible departure was the only move that would make or break them. He has been one of their best draft picks, but overall the Packers have done a terrible job of drafting defensive tackles in recent years.

This seems to be a blind spot for GM Ted Thompson, who got off to a bad start by selecting Justin Harrell in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, and followed that up with some other notably misses; such as Jerel Worthy in 2012 and Khyri Thornton in 2014. His only other success was B.J. Raji, who's had an up-and-down career and might be leaving in free agency this offseason.

That lack of depth at defensive tackle explains why Letroy Guion was one of the few outside free agents they've signed in recent years, and explains why he'd get a three-year, $4 million per season contract.

ICYMI: The #Packers re-signed DT Letroy Guion on Friday: https://t.co/zC6Ml3cyde pic.twitter.com/OVtFchqEDU

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) February 13, 2016

In a bubble, there's no great reason to re-sign Guion. He was arrested for felony possession this time last year and was suspended for three games. While he wasn't bad in 2015, he wasn't great either, and Walter Football gave this signing a C grade (a lot of money for an OK rotational lineman). But he's a run stuffer, and GM Ted Thompson has placed somewhat of a premium on veteran run stuffers (he paid NT Ryan Pickett a lot of money over his Packer career).

But it also goes to show that the Packers don't have a lot of depth at DT. Mike Pennel has been a pleasant surprise as an undrafted free agent, and Josh Boyd should return from his broken ankle, but that's all they currently have to play alongside Daniels next season. The Packers rotate their defensive lineman a lot and don't always have a defensive tackle on the field, but they do need more players than just those four. Even if B.J. Raji is also re-signed, they'll still probably draft a defensive tackle at some point next April (though it might turn out to be another bust).

So keeping the player you know, who can do what you need him to do, even if the price is a little steep, makes sense. The unfortunate bit is that the Packers haven't done well drafting defensive tackles in the past, which is why they needed him in the first place. And overpaying Guion now might explain why they aren't as aggressive later in free agency.

Will Julius Peppers Play For The Packers In 2016?

The Green Bay Packers should be very happy to have LB Julius Peppers back in 2016. Despite his recent Pro Bowl appearance, Peppers didn't have as much impact in 2015 as he did in 2014 but it's hard to see that as the sign of his imminent decline.

While his sack total was up (10.5 in 2015 from 7 in 2014) several other stats were down, but his 2014 and 2015 seasons are both comparable to past seasons stretching back to his time with the Panthers and Bears. His career stats are about as consistent from season-to-season as any player you're likely to find, and he's only missed 2 games since 2002! Though he just turned 36 years old, an age that should place major question marks on any non-QB/non-kicker, Peppers is an amazing, consistent star who is an exception to those rules.

So the fact that Adam Schefter wrote a line in his most recent column that Peppers may have already played his final NFL game is big concern.

NFL's five biggest off-season storylines:https://t.co/WkeAeqs0FF

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 4, 2016

It's a little surprising to read that from Schefter when there was a different report earlier this week suggesting that Peppers would play again in 2016 even if the Packers release him.

Just looking at Peppers by himself, he's a still a great player and worth the $8 million cap charge he'll cost next season. The lone advantage in releasing him now would be to use that cap space on a younger player in free agency, but I generally hate free agency and his release would also cost them a $2.5 million cap charge in dead money. The Packers currently have around $21 million in cap space so creating cap space is not a big need.

But when you look at the state of the roster without Peppers, his release would leave their roster without any quality linebackers other than Clay Matthews. Nick Perry and Mike Neal are both unrestricted free agents, and neither one is a priority to re-sign. Who knows how Sam Barrington will be after missing almost the entire 2015 season with injury. Some combination of Jake Ryan, Joe Thomas and Nate Palmer might be useful as a backup (maybe Ryan has potential next season as a starter) but that's a thin bench. Pro Football Focus listed linebacker as the Packers' number one need this offseason, and despite the recent report that coach Mike McCarthy is "fed-up" with the Packers' approach in free agency, it's unlikely that GM Ted Thompson will be aggressive in that area. It'll be important to keep valuable linebackers like Peppers, and draft a couple more options this April too.

T.J. Lang Had His Best Season While Playing With Two Bad Shoulders

This might not be the last story we read this offseason about a Green Bay Packer offensive lineman who is having surgery, every starting offensive lineman missed at least some time last season with an injury, but today's its about RG T.J. Lang.

Shoulder surgery finally a reality for Packers guard T.J. Lang https://t.co/A1xlwALJKd

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) February 2, 2016

The only criticism that can be leveled against Lang this season is that he missed one game because of injury. Otherwise he was one of the team's best players. This season, he received the highest grade of his career from Pro Football Focus, who also graded him as the 4th best guard overall last season (just behind Zack Martin of the Cowboys and just ahead of his teammate Josh Sitton).

He'll have a reasonable $6.1 million cap charge next season, his final one before he can become a free agent in 2017. Next season will be his eight NFL season and GM Ted Thompson isn't known for re-signing players into their 30s (Lang will turn 30 during the 2017 season), and the wear-and-tear is starting to show, though Lang has only missed two starts in the past five seasons. It'll be interesting to watch how he recovers and plays next season.

Aaron Rodgers Had Minor Knee Surgery

After the Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins in the playoff Wild Card game, I looked back through the injury report to see when QB Aaron Rodgers had last been listed because something was wrong with him. Yes, his receivers were playing poorly and his offensive line was a disaster (at times) but he was also missing throws that he previously didn't miss. Against the Redskins, after completing his first attempt to WR James Jones, he was incomplete on his next seven attempts. Missing seven straight pass attempts for an NFL QB is rare these days, and I can't ever remember Rodgers going through such a bad streak. I thought he must still be playing through that right shoulder injury, though it hadn't been listed in weeks.

Now all teams stink at disclosing injuries, Mike Florio's been on them about this for years, and it looks like the Packers were part of the club. Maybe it was the combination of a sore shoulder and knee that messed up his accuracy, but his injured knee had to be the main suspect if it required surgery shortly after the end of the season.

Wonder if this Week 10 hit (which was flagged) ultimately led to Aaron Rodgers knee surgery https://t.co/VWimaKdV6X pic.twitter.com/MGje35hC14

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) February 1, 2016

The good news is that this doesn't seem to be a big deal. He'll be fully recovered and participating in the team's offseason program when it starts in April. The bad news is that this is the third season in a row where a mid-season injury (2013-collarbone, 2014-calf, 2015-knee/shoulder) took away a lot of what makes Aaron Rodgers a great quarterback. And, unfortunately, this is something that should be expected to continue each season now that he's over age 30 (he turned 32 in December).

About Mike McCarthy Being "Fed Up" With GM Ted Thompson

There were a few times last season when I wondered if it would have helped if the Green Bay Packers had targeted a free agent or two, on a veteran's minimum contract, who might have helped out at some positions. Notably, the Arizona Cardinals had some success with low-priced veterans like RB Chris Johnson and DE Dwight Freeney in 2015. Apparently Bob McGinn has learned that coach Mike McCarthy was wondering the same thing.

Report: Mike McCarthy is fed up with Packers management refusing to sign free agents https://t.co/KDYJ9mqf7k

— Deadspin (@Deadspin) January 24, 2016

It's hard to get too worked up over this report because in some ways it's old news. It reminds me of when almost everyone was upset that Thompson didn't pull the trigger in 2010 on a trade for RB Marshawn Lynch. Thompson turned out to be right in the sense that the Packers didn't need Lynch that season to win the Super Bowl, but Lynch would have still been worth whatever it would have taken to acquire him (the Bills gave up a 4th and a 5th round pick for him).

I wouldn't be surprised if McCarthy is looking for new answers after another playoff loss on the final play of the game. Having a veteran TE, a veteran DB, or a veteran ILB (instead of rotating Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas Jr.) might have made a small difference, but it could have turned one or two close losses this season into wins. Having no reliable inside LB other than Clay Matthews might have been his biggest regret because Bob McGinn specifically mentions the availability of ILB Mason Foster, who signed with the Redskins.

On the other hand, the NFL free agent market is a minefield. A healthy free agent who might be an average NFL player can command a bust-worthy multi-year contract while the true superstar who hits the market will get a cap crushing deal.

Typically the players who receiver one-year contracts aren't good or haven't been healthy for a while. Foster's a minor success story but other teams handed out one-year contracts to former Packer ILBs Desmond Bishop (released in early September) and Jamari Lattimore (played only on special teams for the Jets) without finding a starting caliber ILB. The Jets did well with ILB Erin Henderson, who could only get a one-year deal after a string of drinking and driving arrests ended his Vikings career, but obviously not every player with a checkered past is able to put it behind them. The Vikings signed Casey Matthews to compete at inside LB but he was hurt before the season even began. Signing a veteran on a one-year contract is much more likely to be a bust than even a mild success.

It's an odd time for this story to come out, on one hand, because this is the season that the Packers did sign WR James Jones to a one-year contract after his release from the Giants, and WR Jordy Nelson was lost for the year. I'm not sure any team in the NFL this season had a better one-year, unrestricted free agent signing than Jones. It's too bad he couldn't have played inside linebacker too.

McCarthy is used to having a deep bench to call on. The lack of depth at offensive tackle and inside linebacker were obvious, and the failure of WR Davante Adams to develop was disappointing, but these things don't always work out. The big takeaway for me in from Bob McGinn's article is that the Packers have really high standards, and if nothing less than a Super Bowl season is a disappointment, then you feel the same way as coach McCarthy.

Packers Disappoint At Running Back, Tight End, and Two Coaches Pay The Price

It's always hard to move onto the next offseason after the last game of the prior season, but Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy moved on quickly, at least as far as his coaching staff was concerned.

The Packers it official: they have fired RB coach Sam Gash and TE coach Jerry Fontenot. Or as the team said they have "parted ways."

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) January 19, 2016

The one thing both coaches had in common; the position players under their wings under-performed during 2015. McCarthy did confirm that he will call the plays next season (it's hard for any boss to give up control) and he said would change the structure of the coaching staff. Maybe there's more changes ahead or maybe the firing of Gash and Fontenot is it. I'm sure he had his reasons for the firings, he hasn't been one to make a lot of changes to his staff every year (and usually not this quickly after the season), but I'm not expecting it'll make a big difference in 2016.

The draft is coming up, in almost 100 days (a lot of draft talk lies ahead...) but first free agency is up next. Usually, if GM Ted Thompson has not re-signed an unrestricted free agents before the end of the season, he doesn't re-sign them. But there's always an exception or two. In the big picture, only four of their unrestricted free agents had a positive score according to Pro Football Focus in 2015 (K Mason Crosby, CB Casey Hayward, LB Nick Perry and WR James Jones) so there is no vital unrestricted free agent that must be re-signed for 2016.

Crosby should be expected back, but he might not be re-signed until March when it's seen what other kickers are earning. Hayward had the highest grade of the four, but he was the 4th highest rated defensive back in 2015, which is a sign that it's a strong unit and maybe not Hayward specifically. He should also be the free agent who attracts the most attention from other teams. Perry had a good grade too but primarily for his run defense (not his pass rushing) which makes him less appealing. They have a bigger need for edge pass rushers than they do for another run defender. Jones obviously had a lot of value in 2015 but he's exactly the type of player that GM Ted Thompson usually lets go in free agency (as he did after the 2013 season). Maybe Jones has so little value to every other team, and the Packers would like the insurance he provides, that a low cost, one-year contract can be worked out.

Packers Playoff Loss: Still Taking It All In

[UPDATE: While I picked on Hayward below it appears that CB Damarious Randall was to blame for the blown coverage.] CB Casey Hayward is soon to become a free agent. While he's a good player, he seems to make mistakes that might give the front office pause on whether he's a keeper. DE Mike Daniels already got his mid-season extension but unless Hayward isn't in demand (which seems unlikely since CBs have been getting paid in free agency) I don't see the Packers re-signing him. It's plays like the opening one in OT, when WR Larry Fitzgerald deployed a cloaking device and ran right past him, that makes me wonder.

How did Larry Fitzgerald end up so wide open on the first play of overtime? "We blew a call," Packers cornerback... https://t.co/GcvUnVscYY

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) January 17, 2016

It's been a struggle on offense this season (QB Aaron Rodgers does need a healthy offensive line, which he finally got in the playoffs, and a deep roster of receivers) but these two Hail Mary plays, side-by-side show how he's made up for some of it. It's also interesting that both defenses played it completely different. The Lions took a lot of criticism for defending a series of laterals that never came, instead of the Hail Mary, and they didn't bring much pressure because they were expecting the short pass. The Cardinals, instead, brought the house and got into Rodgers's face immediately, and they only dropped four into coverage. Rodgers spun away from the rush and still managed to throw the pass he needed anyway. Two different defensive schemes to the same scenario, but Rodgers made the result the same.

I'm all for taking risks, and understood why Bruce Arians passed late in the game when he could have run out the clock. If the Cardinals had completed that fade pass to Fitzgerald, then the game was over. But the Cardinals were the favorites and they've been the better team all season, so they could have taken the lower percentage path to victory (and probably won in regulation, if they'd wiped out another 35 seconds). The Packers, on the other hand, could have gone for the two point conversion to end the game before OT. I understand the math and the Packers probably had a better chance of converting then rather than winning in OT, but it's a one-and-done scenario. Instead of giving his team a few chances to make a big play in OT, Mike McCarthy would have gave them just one. Unfortunately, the secondary blew the coverage in their first opportunity to make a play in OT, but McCarthy made the right call for the extra point. He should give his team more than one chance to win, though Bill Barnwell below explains why he thinks McCarthy should have gone for two.

Ultra-rare (first?) Sunday morning column today on why Bruce Arians was right and Mike McCarthy was wrong yesterday https://t.co/iIIIvf019R

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 17, 2016

The Packers' 2015 Season Ends Like The 2014 Season, With An Overtime Loss At An NFC North Opponent, Cardinals Win 26-20

The Green Bay Packers defense gave them a chance in this game, and they didn't let the team down until they allowed two late TD drives which gave the Cardinals the lead in the 4th quarter and then gave them the win in OT. It was better than the offense could do. Outside of a long run by RB Eddie Lacy, the Packers' rushing attack wasn't much of a help. With WR Randall Cobb injured early, and WR James Jones shut out by CB Patrick Peterson, their top two receivers caught zero passes. But three big completions to WR Jeff Janis for two touchdowns gave them just enough offense to force OT. It was a wild ride, starting with a dumb luck, ricochet TD pass to WR Michael Floyd.

WATCH: Michael Floyd's tipped-pass catch gives Cardinals late lead on Packers https://t.co/XdbQUbwO5w pic.twitter.com/r5l0vEMnSI

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 17, 2016

Then QB Aaron Rodgers answered with an amazing Hail Mary pass to WR Jeff Janis for the tie.

Hail Mary 2.0! #GBvsAZ #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/6NvBoD1x7p

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 17, 2016

But a 75 yard pass play to start OT, when the Packers' pass rush doesn't quite get to QB Carson Palmer, ends their season.

This is the play before The Play after The Other Play: Larry Fitzgerald starts OT with a 75-yard catch #BeRedSeeRed https://t.co/PQIxOy1FMX

— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2016

It was a great season, and an amazing run considering QB Aaron Rodgers played this game without his expected top 3 receivers (Nelson, Cobb, Adams) and had no passing yards to his best remaining receiver (Jones), but they were so close, just like last season, and you never know when the opportunity might come again.

Packers Need To Dominate In The Air, Not On The Ground

Pro Football Focus is a great resource but I don't agree with them in this week's article previewing the Green Bay Packers playoff game in Arizona that the Packers can win if they run the ball.

Everything you need to know for Packers-Cardinals https://t.co/pWV44dybeH #PFF

— Brandon Benson (@AcmeBrandon) January 15, 2016

The Cardinals have the 2nd best run defense this season according to Football Outsiders, and the Packers haven't shown the ability to consistently run the ball. The Cardinals' strong run defense might be exaggerated because their opponents were forced to throw to keep up with the Cards' offense but the Packers aren't the team to take advantage of it. Injuries to the offensive line and RB Eddie Lacy's ribs have taken all of the steam out of the ground game's engine this season.

One very good point is about QB Aaron Rodgers's accuracy. Bryson Vesnaver wrote at Pro Footbal Focus that Rodgers struggled against Washington without any pressure "completing just 58.6 percent of his passes...when in a clean pocket." I'm spoiled as a Packer fan but Rodgers's accuracy has been below his usual levels this season. He was especially bad early in the game, missing open receivers, but he was much better by the second quarter. But instead of emphasizing the ground game over the passing game, this means that Rodgers has got to get his accuracy back to near perfection. With the offensive line as healthy as it's going to get, the pass protection was at it's best against the Redskins.

#Packers offensive line was responsible for only 5 pressures on 41 dropbacks Sunday. Key to offensive revival.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 12, 2016

It's more likely that Rodgers will have a perfect game than Lacy will shake his 2015 season slump. They'll win by leaning heavily on Aaron Rodgers.

To Beat The Cardinals; Aaron Rodgers Is Going To Have To Be Great

There's no other way to look at it; the Green Bay Packers are the statistically weakest 2015 team still in the playoffs and they have the hardest road to the Super Bowl.

ICYMI: Ranking the paths to the Super Bowl by difficulty for each remaining team https://t.co/hW9HXLQoA7

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 11, 2016

It's useful to look back at the Packers' 2010 season (2011 playoffs) when they went on a road playoff run and advanced to the Super Bowl. But that was a different team, which never trailed by more than seven points at any time during the 2010 season and might have been the greatest 10-6 team in NFL history. They were the 4th highest rated team of 2010 according to Football Outsiders, and the best remaining team in the NFC after they beat the Eagles that year in the Wild Card game. The 2015 Packers don't have a lot in common with them.

The 2015 Packers' best comparison is the 2012 Ravens, which was the 9th best team of 2012 according to FO, and won the championship behind the arm of QB Joe Flacco. He was OK that regular season (ESPN QBR of 49.2, which was dragged down by two disastrous losses vs. the Texans and Broncos) but he outplayed nearly every statistically measurement during the playoffs (11 TDs and 0 INTs in 4 playoff games). QB Aaron Rodgers has been better during the 2015 regular season in almost every way compared to Flacco v.2012, and he had one of his best games of the season against the Redskins last week. Now he's going to have to do it again while also improving on the lowly 5.83 ypa he had during that Wild Card game.

There's no good way to look back and see any positives from the 38-8 beating the Packers had pasted on them by the Cardinals three weeks ago. The upgrade to Tretter (if Bakhtiari is still out with an ankle injury) over LT Don "revolving door" Barclay will make them much more competitive. While he had a good game against the Redskins, WR Davante Adams has been a problem all season and his MCL injury might provide a boost to the Packers' offense by giving more reps to WR Jared Abbrederis. But those are marginal improvements and not enough to overcome a 30 point difference. The Packers (Rodgers in particular) are going to have to play their best.

The Cardinals are a great team, and they're about as good in 2015 as the Packers were in their 2010 when they were on their way to the Super Bowl, but they're not without their flaws. Rodgers played great against the Redskins because his pass protection was solid. The Cardinals were outstanding at getting after Rodgers three weeks ago, but the benching of Barclay alone makes a big difference and the Cardinals aren't the best at pressuring the QB. They also lost two defensive players to injury over their bye week and were forced to sign LB Jason Babin to provide some depth for Saturday's game. Neither of the two players lost to injury (Okafor and Redding) are defensive cornerstones but it's a sign that the Cardinals don't have much of a pass rush outside of DE Calais Campbell.

There's no statistical advantage the Packers are bringing to their next playoff game; they're going to have to play their best game of the season if they want to beat the Cardinals on Saturday.

2015 Wild Card: Packers Beat Redskins in D.C. 35-18

The first 17 minutes of their playoff game felt like a lot of recent Green Bay Packer games. The offense couldn't get anything going, and the pass protection was letting QB Aaron Rodgers down (new starting LT JC Tretter was bull rushed for a sack and safety in the 1st quarter). At that point it was Redskins 11, Packers 0, and it should have been even worse if not for a missed extra point and a poor job by WR DeSean Jackson to not reach for a touchdown.

But then the Packers offense scored on their next 5 possessions for 32 points. This touchdown was the point at which I felt like they were going to win.

Rodgers fires a 🚀 to Adams for the #Packers touchdown! 🎥: https://t.co/d0UhGEJWZS pic.twitter.com/72IRQ9gYdl

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 11, 2016

On offense, what went right was their offensive line. They're probably as healthy as they've been in several weeks and subbing JC Tretter in at left tackle instead of moving Josh Sitton over from left guard finally gave them their best lineup, so long as LT David Bakhtiari is still injured. I wasn't excited to hear that Tretter was starting, he was a minor disaster at tackle in 2014, but that early safety was the only sack, and the Redskins only recorded 2 QB hits, for the game. They had been really good at getting to the quarterback over their last few regular season games. Once the passing game got going, the running lanes opened up (good run blocking led to some huge cutback lanes) and the rout was on.

On defense, it was the Packers pass rush. The Redskins had some success running the ball, but that usually happened when Dom Capers got caught in the wrong defense and had an undersized unit on the field (on QB Kirk Cousins's TD run, the only defender over the interior lineman was DB Micah Hyde). But their offensive line had no answer for the Packers' defensive rush. LBs Nick Perry and Mike Neal have had forgettable regular seasons, but both came up huge in this game. The Redskins were able to get open and beat the Packers' coverage but sacks (and one lost fumble) killed their offense.

This was one of their best overall games of the year, and it came at just the right time. Hopefully their injuries aren't too serious (WR Davante Adams hurt his knee (he said it's only sore) and it's unknown at this time if CB Quinten Rollins has a serious groin injury) and they'll make it back on the short week. Unlike in this game, when they were steamrolled in the opening quarter, they can't get blown away for one quarter and expect to beat the Cardinals. They'll have to play well over the course of an entire game, which isn't something they've done often this season.

Why The Packers Will Defeat The Redskins; Because of Their Offense

I'll have to admit, I'm having trouble writing about how the Green Bay Packers' offense is going to beat the Redskins. The easy answer is that the Redskins have a mediocre defense (ranked No. 21 overall according to Football Outsiders (19st against the pass, 22nd against the run) and the Packers have the defending MVP at quarterback. The offense will look much better if the starting offensive line (especially LT David Bakhtiari) can play and RB Eddie Lacy can have one of his good games.

However, that's not the reality of this season. Bakhtiari is still struggling with his ankle injury and Lacy has had many more bad games than good. RB James Starks isn't the answer either; the Packers can't run behind their beat up offensive line. The passing game has covered up for the lack of a running game in past seasons by killing defenses with their deep passing game, but that element has vanished this season without WR Jordy Nelson.

Aaron Rodgers - 2015 Passing YPA First 6 games - 8.19 Last 10 games - 5.97 Good lord.

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) January 6, 2016

Even that 8.19 YPA is low for Rodgers. He was at 8.43 YPA in 2014, and 8.75 in 2013. The big change since those first six games is that WR James Jones isn't fooling as many defenses as he was at the start of the season. He still has his moments but they're not as frequent. Cobb's never been much of a deep threat but according to Pro Football Focus, Cobb caught 3 TDs in 2014 on targets of 20 yards or more, and he's caught zero in 2015. I won't even get into how much of a disappointment WR Davante Adams has been in this regard. The low YPA isn't a sign that Rodgers has turned into a dink-and-dunk passer but that the deep passing game has had such a low percentage of success in 2015.

It would seem like the Packers need to focus on a short passing-high completion percentage game plan. It's not Mike McCarthy's style but they got to get out of 3rd and long situations and win the hidden elements of the game, like field position, and let their very good defense create some short fields after defensive stops and/or turnovers.

But stopping the short passing game is probably the strength of the Redskins' defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Redskins are terrible against No.1 and No. 2 wide receivers but slightly above average against other wide receivers. They're also the 5th best defense against running backs in coverage, so those running back screens don't look like something to use against them. They're not great at covering tight ends but TE Richard Rodgers isn't someone who can really challenge them.

While they will run the ball on occasion, RB Eddie Lacy has only been good in recent games against the Cowboys (who have a terrible run defense) and the Vikings, and Lacy just seems to have the Vikings number. RB James Starks has been even worse lately (4 fumbles over his last 5 games) and his only big game in recent weeks came against the terrible Cowboys, but he seems more likely to have a breakout game than Lacy. Either way, it seems very unlikely that the running game will provide a spark.

My opinion is subject to change depending on the Packers' next opponent, but it looks like the best thing the Packers' offense can do is to keep leaning heavily on Jones and Cobb, as they've been trying to do all season long. The Redskins defense is similar to the Lions, and the passing game (Hail Mary aside) did pretty well against them in two games (as long as they don't try to force feed the ball to Davante Adams). The big difference between those two teams is the Lions can't cover tight ends and Richard Rodgers killed the Lions in both games against them. Despite what I wrote earlier, maybe getting him involved more is the way to go against the Redskins, in addition to leaning heavily on Jones and Cobb.

Sticking to the same offensive schemes that haven't been working all season isn't an inspired game plan, however, that is probably the best way for the Packers' offense to defeat the Redskins on Sunday.

Why The Packers Will Defeat The Redskins; Because of Their Defense

There's plenty of pessimism surrounding the Green Bay Packers as they enter the playoffs. And looking at their team efficiency ranking at Football Outsiders, it should be expected that the Packers will lose to either the Panthers or Cardinals in Round Two (after beating the lower ranked Redskins next Sunday). But I can see how the Packers will not only beat the Redskins, but how they can beat the other powers (Seahawks, Cardinals, Panthers) and advance to the Super Bowl.

It starts with the defense (and I'll get to the Packers' offense later):

The #Packers defense allowed just one touchdown drive & 242 total yards on Sunday. More: https://t.co/Acs2MVEkpj pic.twitter.com/micu5bvVTG

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 4, 2016

The last time the Packers opened the playoffs on the road (2010 season) it was against the NFC East champion (Eagles), and the Packers featured one of the best pass defenses (6th overall in 2015 according to Football Outsiders vs. 1st overall in 2010). But that's about where the similarity ends. The 2010 Eagles had a good pass offense and an elite rushing attack, while the 2015 Redskins can't run the ball to take advantage of the Packers' average run defense. Their late season winning streak (they won 5 of their last 6) has been because of QB Kirk Cousins, who's been very accurate (69.8 completion percentage on the season) and with only 1 INT in his last 6 games.

And that's the knock on Cousins. Over his last 6 games, the Redskins have played a collection of mediocre to awful pass defenses. The last time they played a quality pass defense was mid-November against the Panthers, and they got clobbered by 28 points. Just as QB Aaron Rodgers has to play better for the Packers to make a playoff run, the Redskins won't win with a bad game from Cousins (the Redskins are 0-4 when he throws 2 INTs in a game this season).

Meanwhile, Cousins hasn't been relying heavily on any one receiver. TE Jordan Reed is his best, but the Packers are ranked No. 4 overall against TEs this season according to Football Outsiders. The Redskins do a number of good receivers (Garcon, Jackson, Crowder) but luckily the Packers have a lot of depth at cornerback to offset that advantage, especially if CB Sam Shields is recovered from his concussion this week.

The Packers defense matches up very well against the Redskins offense, which is why the Packers will beat them on Sunday.

Packers Lose To The Vikings, 20-13, Will Play Redskins In D.C. on Sunday

Before I get into anything else, a big round of applause for a great game from the Green Bay Packers' defense. Except for a couple big runs from WR Adam Thielen (watch out for the jet sweep, Dom) the Vikings' offense did nothing. RB Adrian Peterson had only 67 yards and QB Teddy Bridgewater passed for 99 yards. That was a dominant performance that usually wins any game that QB Aaron Rodgers starts at quarterback.

In case you were wondering if a great quarterback can do it alone, we present to you the 2015 Packers and Patriots.

— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) January 4, 2016

Mike McCarthy fixed the Don Barclay problem by putting Barclay on the bench and moving Josh Sitton to left tackle. It wasn't a great performance by Sitton, but DE Everson Griffin is a very good pass rusher and Sitton hasn't played left tackle in maybe ever.

But he didn't fix the WR Davante Adams problem. It took them too long to figure out that their best play on offense is to throw it whoever was being covered by CB Terence Newman. If WR James Jones was being covered by CB Xavier Rhodes, then he wasn't open. WR Randall Cobb was usually double-teamed, and Adams seems to run at defenders instead of away from them. In McCarthy's defense, I'm not sure either Abbrederis or Janis is any better than Adams. Maybe they need to line up with more two tight end sets, or keep lining FB John Kuhn out wide.

It was also painful to watch the running game. It's not an Eddie Lacy problem. The offensive line (injured, playing out of position) isn't getting enough push, or second level blocking, depending on the particular play. James Starks isn't the answer either. However, they're both much better as receivers. After the Packers basically gave up on the running game in the fourth quarter, the offense came to life. But all those pass attempts behind a shaky offensive line also leads to more hits on Rodgers, and more strip sacks returned for touchdowns.

Abandoning the running game next week against the Redskins might work if LT David Bakhtiari can play. He practiced on Friday and was a game time decision against the Vikings. It's not a stretch to expect him back next week, which would allow them to re-shuffle their line and have all five starters together for the first time in a while.

While this loss, coming on the heels of a disastrous loss in Arizona, may make this seem like a lost season already. But they could get their starting offensive line back next week, and their defense has been playing great this season. With a great defense and a great starting quarterback, lots of good things can happen in the playoffs.

Cover Your Eyes: Packers Beaten Badly In Arizona, 38-8

I thought the loss at Denver was going to be their worst loss of 2015, but the Green Bay Packers one upped themselves with a terrible loss in Arizona. Still, it's good to remember that they've already made the playoffs and knocking the Cardinals out of the No. 2 playoff spot was always a long shot.

The Cardinals overall have been a better team this season, but the Packers can make themselves a whole lot better if they could get their offensive lineman back healthy. That would make them a much, much better team:

.@PaulCalvisi wraps up #GBvsAZ and @LisaCharisseB chats w/ #AZCardinals CB Jerraud Powers. https://t.co/w0v4CcV7rM pic.twitter.com/izBjaI2b21

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 28, 2015

The Packers have asked a lot of backup LT/RT Don Barclay this season, and he's been a complete disaster. The former undrafted player had some good moments in 2012 and 2013, but those are long gone. On the play above, he was a revolving door for veteran DE Dwight Freeney, who had been looking for an NFL job for months before the Cardinals finally called him in October, and he had three sacks on Sunday. Barclay has been a lot worse than former 1st round OT Derek Sherrod, who was so bad in 2014 that he was cut mid-season though he only had played in a couple games. If the Packers had any other decent backup tackle, Barclay would have probably been released mid-season too. They have to go with someone other than Barclay for the rest of the season, to at least give themselves a chance.

In Barclay's slight defense, the entire line was a disaster. DE Calais Campbell was a nightmare in the middle (he drove LG Josh Sitton back on a play in the first quarter that led to a sack). RT Bryan Bulaga was having a bad day too until he was sidelined with an ankle injury.

The good news is that none of the injuries to their starting offensive lineman are serious. But they won't be back to full health before the playoffs start either. If Sitton and Lang can continue to play next week while LT David Bakhtiari and Bulaga (and Corey Linsley too) rest, maybe they'll be in good enough shape for a playoff run. But then Mike McCarthy is going to have to work out a different game plan to account for a couple of missing lineman against the Vikings.

As for the rest of the team, there's one other personnel move that would help; it's time to bench WR Davante Adams. I've been all for giving him another chance this season but bad things seem to happen when he's in the game. He spends too much time dropping passes and running poor routes with only the occasional big play to make up for it. He should get another chance to prove himself next preseason, after another off-season of work and practice, but right now they should be giving their other receivers more playing time. WR Jared Abbrederis is healthy now and he's had the entire season to get used to the offense, after barely playing at all last season or this preseason because of injuries. While I'm not his biggest fan, WR Jeff Janis can't be much worse than Adams at this point.

While the offense might be the weakest it's been since Aaron Rodgers became the starting QB, it can be a lot better with those couple moves. Meanwhile, the defense and special teams are about as good as they've been at any time over the past several seasons, though Dom Capers has to improve a pass rush that disappeared against the Cardinals after two early sacks. They have to focus right now on getting as healthy as they can over the next two weeks, and make a couple moves on the offensive side of the ball (Barclay and Adams) so that this was their last loss of the season.

Packers Clinch Playoff Berth, and Then Defeat The Raiders in Oakland, 30-20

Shortly after the Packers' game started in Oakland, the Giants came up short of an amazing comeback against the Panthers and their loss clinched a playoff spot for the Packers. With their win in Oakland, the Packers still have a one game advantage for the NFC North title over the Vikings, and a chance to earn themselves a bye in the playoffs if they win out (at Arizona, home for the Vikings).

I'd expect Arizona will be playing all their starters next week, though they've clinched their division. Cards HC Bruce Arians never seems to take his foot off of his team's gas pedal for any reason. I know we're getting close to the end of the season, but things can still change drastically from week-to-week. The Packers have made the playoffs, and I'm sure they'll be playing to win next week in Arizona, but it won't be a tragedy if they fall short. Arizona's been great all season long and playing them in Arizona during the playoffs won't be any easier than playing them in Lambeau.

But I can't see how the Packers would win the NFC North without beating the Vikings in Week 17. The Vikings play the Giants next Sunday, and the Giants might have nothing left to play for if Washington wins next Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are still looking to win the division. They'll have to beat the Vikings if they want either the bye or a home playoff game.

Not that having home field is a necessity. They didn't need it when they last won the Super Bowl.

As for the game, I'm probably in the minority but it was a good win. QB Derek Carr was ranked ahead of QB Aaron Rodgers by Football Outsiders before the game, and the Packers pressured him into two terrible first quarter interceptions. Though the defense has often struggled this season, they were very good at almost everything in this game except covering WR Amari Cooper, who caught a late first half touchdown on a blown coverage (I think CB Casey Hayward was supposed to run with him but it was hard to tell since neither him nor Demetrius Randall made a move towards Cooper) and he had a third quarter touchdown when he just beat Randall down the sideline. But then shortly after Cooper's second TD reception, the Raiders matched the Packers' earlier blown coverage with their own blown coverage and the Packers never trailed again.

Watch the James Jones #touchdown that put the #Packers back on top in the 3rd: https://t.co/Ob6yQNfAJG #GBvsOAK pic.twitter.com/Ub2NOBtpig

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 21, 2015

The Raiders had no offense in the fourth quarter, the Packers' defense did a really good job of applying pressure and in coverage, and it didn't matter that the Packers' offense stalled too (other than a 92 yard drive that stretched from the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter). It was a very inconsistent game (again) for the offense but winning by 10 points on the road to an improving Raiders team is not a gimme, and a necessity if they still have hopes of moving up in the playoff standings.

Packers Win Over Cowboys; Tough Road Game Ahead In Oakland

I've been off from blogging for a little while because I've been traveling, but I did stop at Lambeau Field during that trip to watch the Green Bay Packers defeat the Cowboys. Here's a picture from my seat:

I imagine watching the game from home would have been a lot like it was at the stadium. It was frustrating because the Packers were clearly the better team (having the right side of the offensive line back made a huge difference) but they couldn't put the Cowboys away until the middle of the 4th quarter. The Cowboys's offense never showed any signs of life, other than three big runs that set up their two scoring opportunities, but most of the game was tighter than it should have been.

And that's a problem, that the Packers aren't capable at the moment of putting away teams early. At least it was an improvement over falling behind against the Bears and Lions at home before mounting a not-quite-enough comeback at the end. But the Raiders are much better (currently No. 12 overall according to Football Outsiders) than the Cowboys and QB David Carr is currently ranked ahead of QB Aaron Rodgers per FO's website.

While Cooper and Crabtree are their big name receivers, they aren't tearing it up according to FO's advance stats. It's sneaky good production from guys like WR Seth Roberts and RB Marcel Reece (as a receiver) that's been their big advantage. The Packers's secondary should match up well (even if CB Sam Shields misses it because of his concussion) because six other members of the Packers's secondary have positive grades in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus, plus LB Joe Thomas (who's become their pass coverage LB in rotation with LB Jake Ryan) makes it seven. The Raiders don't have much of a rushing attack so the Packers's suspect run defense probably won't face much of a test.

The Packers's offense has to focus on protecting Aaron Rodgers. LB Khalil Mack has been a monster this season, and is coming off a 5 sack game at Denver. His success is forcing teams to pay less attention to this teammates, and seven of them currently have positive pass rushing grades according to Pro Football Focus. If they can protect Rodgers, the offense be able to put some points on the board.

If the Packers really want to grab the two seed from the Cardinals, then they're going to have to win this tough road game against a pretty good team that still has dim playoff hopes. And then win again next week on the road against that same Cardinals team that's battling for a playoff bye. With their win against the Cowboys behind them, the last three games look like a tough road before the playoffs.

Down The Stretch: The Packers Last Four Games of the 2015 Season

Despite their mid-season swoon on offense (if their injuries at receiver weren't enough, the injuries on the offensive line are a bigger problem at the moment) and their defense's struggles to create a pass rush without blitzing a defensive back, the Green Bay Packers are at 8-4 and a top the NFC North. The main concern is going to be the Minnesota Vikings and winning the NFC North title, though a wild card birth is a strong possibility even if they struggle down the stretch.

With one game remaining against each other, and both the Packers and Vikings are traveling to Arizona for one game, their schedules are very similar. Each team plays another team with a long-shot chance at the playoffs (Packers at Raiders, Vikings host Giants) and another one against a team that's just finishing out the season (Packers host Cowboys, Vikings host Bears).

Confidence is important for a team, not the most important thing but it's a factor, and for what it's worth, the Packers have a lot of confidence after winning a game on a Hail Mary pass while the Vikings completely fell apart at home against the Seahawks. It's never a good thing when a team's star player starts calling out his coaches in public.

Our story on Adrian Peterson's frustration with his number of carries today, and what's behind it: https://t.co/FzyCfOQlpC

— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingESPN) December 7, 2015

I'd love to say I know how the next four games are going to go for the Packers but they've been so inconsistent while losing four of their last six games that it's hard to predict. However, the Broncos game being the exception, after every time they've fallen behind recently, they've managed to stage a late game rally or comeback win. So no matter how bad they look (i.e. the first quarter against the Lions) they'll still have a chance to rally. The Cowboys game should be a win but nothing is a given right now. Traveling across the country to play the Raiders feels like a trap game before they visit the Cardinals (which is their toughest remaining game). Then it'll be a rematch against the Vikings which might be the game to decide who'll make the playoffs.

More Video of Packers Hail Mary Win Over The Lions

Same ole lions 🦁

A video posted by Brandon Movitz (@brandicle) on Dec 3, 2015 at 8:54pm PST

Packers Pull Off Hail Mary In Detroit: Beat Lions 27-23

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

On the final play of the game, the Packers drew what was probably the weakest face mask penalty I've ever seen (it only looked weak on slow motion replay, at full speed it looked a lot worse) but that's not what I'm talking about by luck. How many times does a Hail Mary work? QB Aaron Rodgers said he's never thrown one before. How many times are there four fumbles in a game and the Packers recover all four of them?

Rodgers to Rodgers for the WIN! #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/c2AkUXAzU3

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 4, 2015

The Packers are usually not a slow starting team, but this game featured one of the slowest starts I can remember from them, on both sides of the ball. The Lions easily moved down the field against the Packers' defense for their first two scoring drives, and I can't remember the last time Rodgers threw too high for a receiver and had it intercepted. The Packers looked dead in the first quarter with 38 yards of offense and 1 interception, while the Lions had three scoring drives and 133 yards of offense. Lions 17, Packers 0.

But the defense came alive in the second quarter and forced four Lions punts, though the Packers' offense remained scoreless. Both teams were hurt by their inability to run the ball, and the Lions are hurt just as badly as the Packers by their lack of depth at wide receiver. Here are some of the first half stats and it's real ugly for the Packers' offense:

Team	Yards	3rd Down %	Turnovers	Score
Packers	78	0%	1	0
Lions	151	29%	0	17

The Lions started the second half off with a 71 yard drive that led to another field goal, and it pushed their lead up to 20-0, but then they only had 84 yards on their next four drives combined, including a strip sack fumble that set up the Packers' second touchdown. While they did score another field goal in the fourth quarter, their offense had four chances to put the game out of reach and the Packers' defense stopped them.

As for the offense, obviously this was TE Richard Rodgers's game, but a lot of breaks went the Packers' way and none of these breaks were bigger than their fumble luck. While the Lions had one fumble that was recovered in their red zone, the Packers had three fumbles and they recovered them all, including a fumble by RB James Starks that was recovered by WR Randall Cobb for a touchdown.

The offense also started playing better. Even before he caught that Hail Mary pass, Richard Rodgers had around 70 yards receiving in the second half, WR Davante Adams had his first touchdown reception of the year, and Starks was good for some yards on screen passes. Rookie RB John Crockett, he was with the Packers during the preseason but was just re-signed this week, got a few carries to give the offense their best rushing yards (other than Aaron Rodgers's touchdown scramble) of the night.

So the Packers played what was probably their worst all-around quarter of the season in the first quarter, trailed 17-0, and then managed to do just enough on offense (along with a little fumble luck) to get themselves in place for the game winning Hail Mary pass. In the end, there are no style points and it's all about which team gets the W, but this was one of the least impressive wins I can remember and I don't feel like this 2015 team has turned a corner. I don't think their season would have been over if they'd lost this game either, but they need at least 10 wins from somewhere to make the playoffs (maybe 9 wins would get them in too) and this gets them a third of the way there.

Now the Packers get a little time off and don't play again until Sunday night, December 13th, at Lambeau against the Cowboys. And I'll be there! Freezing my butt off no doubt but I'll be having a great time. Hopefully I lose my voice and watch the Packers earn their ninth win of the season.

Packers Lose Another NFC North Game At Home: Bears 17, Packers 13

It was appropriate that the Green Bay Packers' last offensive play against the Chicago Bears was an incomplete pass to WR Davante Adams. There might have been nothing he could have done on that particular play but this post is going to be all about him.

Mistakes pile up on offense in loss to Bears. #Packers locker room report: https://t.co/OQQswbiK9q pic.twitter.com/6CmeRDo7G4

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 27, 2015

When the offense is struggling, it's usually because one thing is broken. In prior years, sacks have been a major problem and its easy for one sack to put the brakes on an entire drive, even if it doesn't happen on 3rd down. It's the same with incomplete passes, and while fingers could be pointed at WR James Jones (who had zero receptions on six targets against the Bears) for disappearing from game-to-game, or WR Randall Cobb for a down season, the spotlight is glaring on Adams.

Currently Adams has a negative DYAR ranking according to Football Outsiders. Most receivers are positive, but there are some good receivers with negative one. WR Dez Bryant currently has a negative DYAR because of his foot injury and the three headed QB hydra that's been a problem all season in Dallas. Adams had a high ankle sprain earlier this season to blame, but it looks a lot worse when you compare Adams to all the other receivers that have registered a negative DYAR since 2008 (the first year QB Aaron Rodgers became a starter):

Player	Season	Passes	DYAR
Davante Adams	2015	64	-28
Jarrett Boykin	2014	12	-38
Myles White	2013	12	-21

It's a very short list and only includes wide receivers who had at least 10 targets during any season since 2008. Neither White or Boykin are still with the team (for good reason) and at least with them, they were obviously not part of the solution and given very few opportunities. On the other hand, the Packers have been forcing the ball into Adams over the past few weeks and he led the team in targets during each of their losses to the Lions and the Bears. During those two close, home losses, on passes to Adams, Rodgers was 12 for 32, 93 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT.

Obviously that's cherry picking, another player to pick on is James Jones who had zero catches for zero yards in those two games. But Adams hasn't made up for it in other games so they could overlook his flops (and drops) against the Lions and Bears. Adams doesn't have a single receiving touchdown in 2015, and his negative DYAR not only stands out poorly in 2015, Aaron Rodgers has never had a receiver struggle like Adams.

Mike McCarthy said after the Bears game that he's going to make changes. Adams is the obvious choice, but TE Richard Rodgers also has a negative DYAR in 2015 (he was negative in 2014 too) and might have fallen behind TE Justin Perillo. Run and pass blocking might also play a factor in this decision too.

The first replacement for Adams is probably WR Jeff Janis. While it may seem like it's about time, over their last two games, Janis has played on 32 offensive snaps and he's had the ball thrown to him twice for zero receptions. It doesn't look like he's getting open and/or earned his quarterback's trust. It's probably a stretch to imagine either WR Jared Abbrederis or WR Ty Montgomery will return to health by Thursday. There's someone on the practice squad, but I'm not going to even consider him. If injuries are still a problem, there isn't a strong Plan B available.

So the good news is that there is a solution. Focus on the good receivers with positive DYAR (Cobb, Jones, Janis, Perillo) and significantly reduce the roles of the receivers who are negative (Adams, Richard Rodgers). Both Adams and Rodgers were 2014 draft choices and still probably need time to develop, but if it hasn't happened yet then it's probably not happening this season. They can be considered as part of the future but not the present. The playoffs are still within sight as they currently hold a wild card spot, and have two more NFC North games remaining. Making an adjustment to their offensive game plan, along with the healthy return of RB Eddie Lacy over their last two games, could get them right back on track for the NFC North title.

Packers Host Bears On Thanksgiving; Plus Brett Favre Is Honored At Halftime

I'm never thrilled to see the Green Bay Packers play on a short week, so I'm not a fan of them playing on Thursday night. But it is cool that this is the first Thanksgiving game in Green Bay since 1923.

In honor of the ceremony for Brett Favre at halftime, Packers.com has put together a very slick interactive webpage and it's really about time he's been honored. I've been a reluctant to say much about him lately, the dramas in 2008 and 2009 still linger with me, but he's one of the all time greats and should have his number retired.

While it's been a surprisingly good season for the Chicago Bears, and QB Jay Cutler is back to being a good quarterback (he's currently ranked No. 8 this season according to Football Outsiders), the Bears were/are in danger of coming into this Thanksgiving game severely undermanned.

6 #Bears questionable for Thursday: RB Matt Forte, WR Alshon Jeffery, LBs Pernell McPhee & LaRoy Reynolds, S Antrel Rolle & Sherrod Martin.

— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) November 25, 2015

They're already going to miss TE Martellus Bennett and WR Eddie Royal, two players who'd start if they were healthy, and losing Jeffrey and Forte too would take away almost all of Cutler's supporting cast. They survived last week without them (Bennett played but was hurt mid-game) against the Broncos; RB Jeremy Langford had a touchdown and WR Marquess Wilson had a career game. Even if Jeffrey and Forte do play, they'll be hurting and somewhat limited on the field. And I haven't even mentioned that they might be without their best pass rusher; Pernell McPhee.

Unfortunately the Packers aren't in perfect health either. The big problem is the offensive line, where every starting lineman is on the injury report and C Corey Linsley is not going to play. Backup C JC Tretter should be fine in his first career NFL start. Since Tretter was supposed to be the starter last year over Linsley (before Tretter got hurt) it's appropriate that he's getting some recognition, finally.

Maybe none of these injuries matter because Cutler's always been very bad at Lambeau in addition to a 1-13 lifetime record against the Packers, but this has been the year for long losing streaks to be broken (the Lions won for the first time in Wisconsin since 1991). Still I'm not expecting the Bears to win on Thursday and they might not even be competitive if the Packers play like they did last Sunday against the Vikings.

Packers End Three Game Losing Streak With A 30-13 Win in Minnesota and Take First Place Back From Vikings

Well that's the Green Bay Packers I've been used to seeing. Though QB Aaron Rodgers still isn't on the same page as his receivers and he had a completion percentage of under 50% (though his receivers had a couple terrible drops) with a poor yards per attempt of 6.2, but there were three big changes from last week's home loss to the Lions.

His top two targets were WR James Jones and WR Randall Cobb. It wasn't a great game for Cobb outside of his touchdown reception but WR Davante Adams proved against the Lions that he's only a No. 3 WR right now. Adams still had a good game against the Vikings (4 targets, 3 receptions, 36 yards) but he's only a complementary player right now and he appropriately had half as many targets as either Jones or Cobb. Right now the offense works when Rodgers leans on his best receivers and gives them a chance to make a play. Against the Lions, when Jones had zero receptions, that was a big reason why they lost that game. Also, Fear The Hoodie.

Watch all the big plays from today's 30-13 victory over the Vikings! 📺: https://t.co/DQYe6OM8Pd pic.twitter.com/AHNmfd4txo

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 23, 2015

The return of RB Eddie Lacy. I had written off Lacy for the near future (I'm sure I wasn't alone) and he surprised me with a 100 yard game. The running game won't carry them but the offense works a lot better when they're getting something on the ground. It's also his 2nd consecutive 100 yard game in Minnesota, and he ran for 94 yards with a touchdown in the Metrodome during his rookie season, so there's something he likes about playing in Minneapolis.

The defense recorded 6 sacks. The Packers' defense is all about getting pressure on the quarterback, and when the pass rush isn't working, they end up with the bad defensive performances they had in Denver and Charlotte. The defense wasn't unstoppable, QB Teddy Bridgewater was very good when he wasn't running for his life, but they also did a very good job against RB Adrian Peterson (and forced a fumble). Bridgewater can't carry the offense by himself and the Packers did a very good job of taking away his pass protection and his running game.

The game was closer than the score in a lot of respects but the Vikings were flagged for 110 penalty yards and gave up a 70 yard return to WR Jeff Janis. That's a lot of extra yards to overcome.

There were a couple injuries to DB Micah Hyde and C Corey Linsley that weren't talked about after the game, hopefully they aren't serious, and they'll have to bounce back quickly because of the short week before their Thanksgiving game against the Bears.

Packers Lose Third Straight; Embarrassing Loss At Home To 1-7 Lions

The only good news is that the Green Bay Packers have seven more games to figure out what's gone wrong over the past three losses. As bad as it looks now, it wasn't this way four weeks ago. They're certainly capable of making adjustments and getting themselves back on track.

On defense: where's my pass rush? Another week, another zero sack game. They played another shaky offensive line, but they still haven't gotten to the quarterback and it only seems to be getting worse. They've got play makers (Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones) and they have to start making plays.

On offense: it's frustrating because they've scored 28 points combined in their last two fourth quarters but only 10 points combined in the last two first halves. Dropped passes were a problem and QB Aaron Rodgers and his receivers often don't seem to be on the same page. It didn't help that Rodgers's accuracy was off early in the game. But the biggest problems were WR Davante Adams and WR James Jones:

Davante Adams has about 20 targets and has done almost nothing with them. It's unbelievable how Rodgers just keeps trying.

— Frank Schwab (@YahooSchwab) November 15, 2015

Adams ended the game with 21 targets and 79 yards. That's about as inefficient as it gets. Their best receiver this season has been Jones, and he had zero receptions in this game and has only 3 in their last three games. Throwing the ball 21 times to your worst receiver and only twice to your best receiver is not a successful formula. They knew that Adams would be going up against a back-up cornerback and this might have been their attempt to push him into a big game.

The receiver who did step up against the Lions was TE Justin Perillo. I've thought that the best option would be for the Packers to get as many receivers involved in the passing game as possible, to compensate for the loss of WR Jordy Nelson. Rodgers was a combined 16 of 18 for 134 yards and 2 TDs on passes to Perillo, TE Richard Rodgers and RB James Starks. These three receivers aren't getting separation in the passing game against anyone but they're also big receivers and if anyone's great at throwing a receiver open, it's Aaron Rodgers. These bigger guys have to run their route and fight for the ball when it comes to them in tight coverage.

I don't want to make a big deal out of WR Jared Abbrederis's game. It was great that he got his first NFL reception and caught 4 passes for 57 yards, but he also had a fumble out of bounds and suffered a rib injury. If he's having trouble staying healthy and holding onto the ball, he's not going to be a help. WR Randall Cobb had another inefficient game as he continues to struggle as the No. 1 receiver, but they just have to keep him involved and hope he can improve as the entire offense improves.

Also, for the second consecutive game, the interior of the offensive line struggled. Against Carolina, the pass blocking assignments were missed in the first half, and against the Lions, the run blocking assignments were missed. The Lions's defensive tackles were in on nearly every running play right at the line of scrimmage. The running game has vanished in too many games this season and it's putting more strain on the struggling pass offense.

So the answer on offense should be less of Adams and Cobb and more of everyone else. Aaron Rodgers got into the habit last season of leaning heavily on his top two receivers (for good reason, they both had a great season) but that isn't the case anymore. They also should be more aggressive on 4th down, especially on their opponent's side of the 50 yard line. It would help if WR Ty Montgomery would return since he's been their 2nd most efficient receiver (behind James Jones) this season according to Football Outsiders. This is the third week in a row that they came into a game with a plan, and it didn't work. If the players can't execute the plans that have been drawn up, it's time to find some new plans.

Mike Daniels and The Interior Defensive Lineman Have To Start Bringing the Pass Rush Back

This season, when I'm watching the Green Bay Packers defense, I often focus on DE Mike Daniels at the snap. Whether he beats his blocker(s) is a strong indicator whether the defense is going to make a play or not, and over the last couple weeks, I've noticed that he's usually not winning the one-on-one battle against his blocker. I'm not blaming him for the entire defense's struggles over the past three games but the interior pass rush has been part of the problem.

Yes the outside linebackers have struggled, but so have B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels. Raji breaks down the problems: https://t.co/S7uq5ggQMx

— Michael Cohen (@Michael_Cohen13) November 12, 2015

At the link above, NT B.J. Raji tries his best to explain what's gone wrong. He mentions the defensive mentality and playing with his instincts. Maybe he's trying to say that the defense wasn't playing their game and they've let the offense dictate the approach.

It's not been a case of playing against superior opponents either. On the offensive line, the Panthers are pretty good on the interior of their offensive line, led by C Ryan Kalil. On the other hand, the Broncos don't have a very good line (LG Evan Mathis and RG Louis Vasquez are good in run blocking and pass protection, respectively, but neither one is great at both) and the Chargers' offensive line is a borderline disaster.

Maybe it's just a matter of pushing through their mid-season exhaustion and minor injuries. The defense was on the field a ton against the Chargers (Daniels recorded 73 snaps out of 94 played). They did have the bye week right after that game and before they played the Broncos, but it might not have been enough of a break. Having their last two games on the road hasn't helped either.

A lot things have gone wrong for the defense over their last three games but benching ILB Nate Palmer and reviving the inside pass rush might fix the problem. When you watch the Packers host the Lions, keep an eye on Daniels (and DE Datone Jones, when he rotates in on the defensive line) and see if they can get in the face of QB Matthew Stafford as he's trying to throw.

I've Got The Two Game Losing Streak Blues: Packers Lose at Carolina, 37-29

I was expecting a lot better from the Green Bay Packers, who followed up their worst loss of the season (at Denver last week) with their worst half of the season (first half against the Panthers). The Panthers were outplaying them on the offensive and defensive lines. They couldn't get anywhere near QB Cam Newton or protect QB Aaron Rodgers. The secondary couldn't cover and the Packers' receivers weren't getting open.

The good news is that they came out in the second half and played the style of game I'd rather see them play. No more JC Tretter at tight end. Instead they spread out their receivers and started attacking down field. The offensive line still struggled but they weren't allowing free releases on blitzes up the middle anymore. The long touchdown pass to WR Randall Cobb that got them started wasn't anything exotic, a good old wheel route that left the cornerback a step flat footed, but it'd been a while since Rodgers even attempted a pass like that. What was looking like another embarrassing blowout turned into a near comeback.

A look at the final numbers. #GBvsCAR MORE: https://t.co/NcFW1B2QDA pic.twitter.com/wP7imgsLrk

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 8, 2015

There are still problems on offense, especially at tackle, and their conversion rate on 3rd down remains terrible. They had almost as many conversions on 4th down (2) as 3rd (3). The running game didn't help but it was better in their previous two games. WR Davante Adams finally came alive, which helps because spreading out with multiple receivers in the shotgun is their best formation at the moment. It would also help if WR Ty Montgomery could return next week.

As for the defense, their pass rush has vanished over the past three games and it's turned them into one of the worst (if not the worst) defense in the NFL over that time. The secondary will get better once CB Sam Shields returns but they've got to find their pass rush. They rarely made Newton move around in the pocket and they finished the game with no sacks. Their defense goes into funks, especially on the road (remember back to 2014 when they got overwhelmed by the Saints in New Orleans), but it's something they could snap out of quickly.

It's time to dump these last two games down the memory hole. It'll all be a distant memory if they win their next four games, which are all divisional, including two Thursday games. Taking care of the division and winning those four alone will win them the NFC North and put them into the playoffs.

Playing The Panthers on the Road Isn't The Same As The Broncos

At first glance, a road game against Panthers for the Green Bay Packers, one week after getting pummeled by the Broncos on the road, looks like a terrible matchup. The Broncos defense is far and away the best defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders, but the Panthers are ranked No. 2 overall. They have a lot of talented players on defense, highlighted by LB Luke Kuechly and CB Josh Norman, and their offense has played a whole lot better then the Broncos this season. If the Broncos can completely outplay the Packers, so can the Panthers.

On the other hand, facing the Panthers is completely different than facing the Broncos:

#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers asked what's the biggest difference between these Panthers and team they beat last year: "Well, they're 7-0."

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) November 4, 2015

Last season, the Packers hosted the Panthers and beat them 38-17. Sure the game was at Lambeau and the Packers still had WR Jordy Nelson, but for the most part these are the same two teams and the Packers crushed them. The game wasn't even as close as the score would appear because the Panthers had two late touchdowns (it was 38-3 entering the 4th quarter).

The Panthers haven't exactly played an awesome schedule. Winning at Seattle is impressive and they just beat a 2014 playoff team at home (Colts) but four of their wins have come against teams from two of the worst divisions in football (AFC South, NFC South) and another win was against the Eagles, who don't have a NFL caliber QB. Their defense has taken advantage of playing against teams that feature some of the worst QBs in the NFL (even the Saints game was against Luke McCown). The best QB by far they've faced this season is QB Russell Wilson. The 2nd best QB was Blake Bortles. They haven't been tested much.

The Panthers secondary isn't the same as the Broncos. CB Josh Norman is arguably the best CB in the NFL but the Panthers also feature arguably the worst pair of cover safeties (Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper) of 2015. Harper's more of a linebacker than safety and Coleman is on his 3rd team in 3 years. All these guys aren't maintaining coverage against the Packer receivers for several seconds like the Broncos did last week, and the Panthers' pass rush is struggling (they traded for DE Jared Allen to provide some type of outside pass rush). When QB Aaron Rodgers extends plays because of his pass protection, he's going to find open receivers on Sunday.

The Packers can stop the run if they want to. The Panthers might have the worst group of wide receivers in the NFL, headlined by WR Ted Ginn, who dropped everything he touched in his last game. Even without CB Sam Shields, I don't expect the Packers to give the Panther WRs a ton of respect. The Packers run defense is a lot better if either safety drops down into the box. They also appear willing to bench ILB Nate Palmer mid-game, as he was against the Broncos. If the Panthers struggle with their passing game and don't force the Packers to play two deep safeties, then their offense is going to be in a lot of trouble.

This is still a road game (always tough) and a really good opponent but in no way am I expecting a repeat of last weekend's game vs. the Broncos. The Packers will start looking like the Packers again in Carolina.

All The Packers Must Fix The Offense Articles Are Coming Out After Getting Clobbered By The Broncos

The short answer remains that the Green Bay Packers miss WR Jordy Nelson. By one measure, he accounted for 40% of their passing offense in 2014. So now some good intentioned articles are focusing on how the Packers can improve mid-season without Nelson.

The Packers have problems. What's ailing Aaron Rodgers and the offense, and how it can be fixed. By @Andy_Benoit https://t.co/t2geFndZ5J

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) November 2, 2015

Author Andy Benoit liked it when the Packers brought a wide receiver out of the backfield on short passes. I actually wish the Packers would do that more with RB Eddie Lacy instead of WR Randall Cobb, though Cobb has better hands. There's always the potential for a big play when Lacy has the ball in the open field and he hasn't been nearly productive enough this season in Nelson's absence.

When I initially looked at how the Packers could replace Nelson, I focused on the Packers getting more receivers involved in 2015. That hasn't happened but here's who can step up.

WR Davante Adams. He's missed most of the season with ankle injuries but finally returned against Denver. Unfortunately he did next to nothing in the Broncos game but it was only his first game back. He's got to get better as the season goes on.

WR Ty Montgomery. He's been sparingly used and plays an almost identical role to Cobb but he's also been the 2nd best WR of those who have had fewer than 32 targets this season. An ankle injury kept him out against Denver and he'll be welcomed back.

TE Justin Perillo. Perillo is the preferred No. 2 TE at the moment. The answer might be more receivers out in the formation with fewer blockers, and Perillo could become that forgotten TE in two-TE sets that can take advantage of a linebacker in coverage.

RB Eddie Lacy. He too has been battling an ankle injury but looked like his old self in the Denver game. Hopefully he can finish the season strong.

But maybe nothing will help as much as avoiding negative plays and converting on a higher rate of 3rd downs. Their 3rd down conversion percentage has been slowly sinking all season long, and it bottomed out at 25% against the Broncos. Remember that early drive when Lacy carried it twice from on 2nd and 3rd and short when they didn't pick up the 1st down? They can't afford any negative rushing plays at the moment and have to find plays that work on 3rd and short.

As much as the knee injury to Nelson has been the big story of the season on offense, a lesser story is the trifecta of ankle injuries (Adams, Montgomery, Lacy) that has taken away the three players who combined could replace Nelson's production. It's next man up time for one (or more) of these players to make the offense better for the rest of the season.

Packers Outplayed In Denver: Lose To Broncos, 29-10

Well at least LB Clay Matthews's ankle injury doesn't appear to be serious. That's about the best thing that can be said about this game. Otherwise they were outplayed on both sides of the ball. But still, it's just one game that doesn't hurt them much (except their pride) because it was a road loss, against an AFC team (so no playoff tiebreakers). It reminded me of their Week 1 loss in 2014 against the Seahawks and obviously they bounced back from it. They'll bounce back this season by taking care of the Panthers next week (a game that does have playoff seeding implications in the NFC) and making sure they win all their upcoming divisional games.

@AaronNagler coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for this. It's borderline embarrassing

— Josh Braun (@JBraun1610) November 2, 2015

It was frustrating to watch them get outplayed and outcoached. The defense was more outplayed then outcoached. Denver's offensive line has been a mess this season, but the bye week seemed to help them. They're probably more healthy and they also used recently signed OT Tyler Polumbus (who's generally awful) in an odd offensive line rotation that worked on Sunday night. LB Clay Matthews said they wanted to pressure QB Peyton Manning so he'd have to move around the pocket but Manning had good protection and room to step up. Denver was going to be able to run the ball against the Packers (everyone usually can) so it was going to be a long night once they got their passing game working. Losing CB Sam Shields early certainly didn't help, and a terrible game from CB Casey Hayward showed why they used their top two draft picks in 2015 on cornerbacks.

It's rare to see the Packers outplayed and outcoached on offense but it does happen sometimes (in 2014-at Seattle and at Buffalo). The Packers wanted to run the ball and throw quick passes on shorter routes, but the running game wasn't great and the receivers couldn't get open which QB Aaron Rodgers pointed out in his post game interview. Denver's D has been outstanding this season so there aren't any obvious weaknesses in coverage to attack, and they had a physical coverage plan to attack the Packers' receivers. That aggressive plan also led to a bunch of coverage penalties but it also kept the Packers' offense from getting into a rhythm. Maybe going with deeper routes or more passes to Jones and Adams on the sidelines would have helped but that strategy could have led to more hits on Rodgers.

It's disappointing, but looking at the 2015 schedule, if there was going to be one low point on it, this was going to be that low point. Nothing to do now but to forget about it and start getting ready for the Panthers.