Will They Play For The Packers in 2013? Johnny Jolly and Jermichael Finley

It's been a long road to reinstatement for former Green Bay Packers DE Johnny Jolly. He was on the verge of making it back before the 2011 season but another arrest for codeine possession cost him two more years. It's now been reported that Roger Goodell has finally reinstated Jolly from his suspension and he can resume his NFL career.

The odd thing is that the Packers have to address the situation right away because Jolly was tendered a $2.521 million contract for the 2010 season, and that amount will be applied against their salary cap beginning March 12th. They own his rights, but probably not for long, because I would expect they'll release him instead of taking that cap hit.

The more interesting question is whether Jolly has a future in football. As Tom Silverstein points out, "Ted Thompson has been willing to give players a second chance." Aaron Rodgers has been supportive of Jolly in the past so Jolly hasn't seemed to have burned all his bridges. The first step is believing in Jolly and so far, at least Roger Goodell has bought into Jolly's rehabilitation. If he does find a team willing to invite him to camp on a veteran's minimum contract, no one will really know if he can play again after three years away from football until he steps onto the field.

And for what it's worth, Jolly was a better starter in 2009 than any other lineman who started in the Packers' base 3-4 defense last season, except for B.J. Raji. If Jolly can play just as well, and get himself back into football shape before the start of the regular season, he'd be a bargain at the veteran's minimum. Of course, those are some big assumptions.

And on one final note:

Here's what Jermichael Finley told me about his future in GB: "The Packers are barely talking to me right now. I .. twenth.com/ipvzlp
— Josina Anderson (@JosinaAnderson) February 28, 2013

Not even TE Jermichael Finley knows his future with the Packers. He said he wouldn't take a pay cut, but who knows if that's talk or just his first offer. Otherwise, nothing's really changed except the Packers are keeping a tight lid on the roster decisions they discuss internally.

Packers might be interested in 49ers DT Ricky Jean Francois

According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the Packers might be interested in 49ers DT Ricky Jean Francois. Francois is an impending free-agent who served primarily as a backup last season.

The Packers are likely looking at him as a possible replacement for injured DT Jerel Worthy, who is expected to miss most of the 2013 season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Worthy had a solid 2012 season and his presence will be really missed if a replacement is not found soon.

The Packers are also rumored to be showing interest in former New York Giants DT Chris Canty. Despite this, Francois is still expected to be their top choice.

Grading the Defensive Lineman At The 2013 NFL Combine

While it's not as bad as last year, the Green Bay Packers defensive line could still use some help.

NT B.J. Raji remains the best of the group, but he wasn't as good in 2012 as he was in 2010. DL Jerel Worthy might be looking at a lost 2013 season as he recovers from a serious knee injury. DL Mike Daniels showed some hustle as a rookie with 2 sacks but he didn't play much against the run last season. DE Mike Neal can't play every down either and his late season productivity (2.5 sacks over the last 3 regular season games) might have been a mirage. DE Ryan Pickett and DE C.J. Wilson can play against the run, but they can't rush the QB. The Packers still need a lineman like Raji who can play the run and lineup alongside Raji as a pass rusher when the Packers go with only two lineman.

Yes, the Eagles just released DE Cullen Jenkins, but the Packers aren't known for signing veterans in their 30s. And they showed little interest in re-signing him after the 2010 season. However, his 2012 season was his typical 4 sacks and 20+ tackles, and Pro Football Focus gave him a positive grade. The same risks he had in 2011 (age, injury concerns) are still there although he played in every game over the past two seasons. He could help, if the Packers had any interest in re-signing him, but he'd be a one or two year solution, at best.

In general, the players who worked out at the combine as defensive ends aren't going to play on the Packers' defensive line. There might be a candidate who could move to outside linebacker, but it seems unlikely they'd go that route again with a high draft choice after selecting LB Nick Perry in 2012. So I'm looking at the defensive tackles, who can play anywhere on the line for the Packers. With one exception.

38 bench reps AND a 4.6 40? At 6'8"?? Margus Hunt is officially the talk of the town: on.nfl.com/HuntImpresses #NFLCombine
— NFL (@nfl) February 27, 2013

Here are all the combine results for the defensive lineman, courtesy of SB Nation. I'm a little reluctant to endorse SMU DE Margus Hunt, he seems more like a workout warrior than an every down player, and at 6-8, 277 lbs., he's small for the Packers' line. But completing 38 reps on the bench press is notable. However, with all the great defensive tackle prospects available, the Packers should be able to find someone with more size.

All the top defensive line prospects appeared to helped themselves at the combine, with the notable exception of Utah's DT Star Lotulelei who might have been flagged only because of dehydration. Not all of them are natural pass rushers but the Packers may find someone they feel they can develop. You can teach pass rushing tips but you can't teach a 6-5, 300 pounder to run like a tight end.

Maybe Purdue's DT Kawann Short would be a good candidate, and he's projected to go in the late first round. The good news is that NFL Draft Scout compared him to Bengals DT Domata Peko, which would be great. He's under 300 lbs. and might be similar in size to Daniels, but having a rotation of Short and Daniels on the defensive line next season might work well.

Steven Jackson to opt out of contract, become a free agent

According to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Rams RB Steven Jackson will opt out of the last year of his contract and become a free agent for the first time in his nine-year career.

Jackson currently holds the Rams franchise record for rushing yards. He has played in the playoffs just once when the Rams made it to the divisional round in his rookie year of 2004.

This move doesn't surprise me. For his entire career, Jackson has played good for a bad team. He deserves to win a Super Bowl before he retires. I wouldn't be extremely surprised if the Packers went after him, as they could use another running back. But I wouldn't count on it. The Packers don't look like they're preparing to buy a title this offseason.

Grading The Linebackers At The Combine

Not only do the Green Bay Packers need to upgrade their talent at linebacker, but there are some high priced players who might be released because they're overpaid.

I've grown to accept what LB A.J. Hawk can do for the defense (an average linebacker against the run and pass) but he's wildly overpaid at $7.05 million in 2013. He might agree to a pay-cut, but he might want to test the market instead. The agent for LB Desmond Bishop is optimistic about his recovery, but we won't know until training camp opens, and he had a down year in 2011. So watching the NFL combine to see how the linebackers performed was one of the big events leading up to the draft.

Manti Te'o to Comment on Slow 40 Time as Soon as He Catches His Breath - is.gd/JQZN7A
— SportsPickle (@sportspickle) February 26, 2013

I'm not a hater, but I'm not a fan either. The problem is that he reminds me of Hawk; a big-time college player who's likely to disappoint as a pro. None of the Notre Dame mystique or side-show antics of a fake girlfriend really bother me. But really there is no comparison because Hawk ran a fast 4.59 40 time at the combine in 2006 which cemented his spot at the top of the draft. Meanwhile, Te'o fell out of the first round (and who knows how far) with his 4.82 40 time. There's still a chance Te'o will become a great pro, but it seems a lot less likely.

Meanwhile, Rob Rang took a look at the three linebackers who helped themselves at the combine.

Iowa State ILB A.J. Klein. Replace one A.J. with another? Maybe. He was previously projected as a 5th round pick, but now he's combined his college production with a solid 4.66 40 time. At 6-1, 250, he's can play inside in a 3-4 scheme and he's shown his instincts in pass coverage by returning 4 INTs for touchdowns in college (an NCAA record). If you want the Packers to select another inside linebacker with a mid-round pick, here's the guy for you. Give him a year to get used to the speed of the NFL and he might be a straight-up replacement for Hawk at a fraction of the price.

Connecticut LB Sio Moore. He was already highly regarded and a likely 2nd round pick, but now he's proven his speed (4.65 40 time). He's got the size (6-1, 241) to play linebacker in the 3-4 and he's known as a playmaker in college (43 tackles for a loss over the last three years). He might be a great prospect to play inside and provide an inside blitz against the run and pass.

Missouri LB Zaviar Gooden. While the Packers don't avoid athletes, they do seem to avoid great athletes who don't have a position to play. He might find a NFL team that can harness his ability, but I doubt it'll be the Packers.

Will the Jets trade Tim Tebow?

As you all know, the Jets want to part ways with overrated QB Tim Tebow, but might not be able to. According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport(the same guy who reported yesterday's Greg Jennings story), nobody seems to have interest in the left-hander.

Tebow is not expected to even consider switching positions, which pretty much makes him worth next to nothing. The main reason why the Jets rarely used him last year was because he was horrible during practice. He couldn't throw and couldn't make up for that by running. In my opinion, the Jets might as well just release him. Unless a team is looking to unload guys who actually have talent(so basically trying to lose), there is no way that Tebow's going anywhere.

Are The Packers Choosing Between Jennings and Finley?

This is pretty big news for the Green Bay Packers, so I'm going to add my own post to what Jack wrote earlier. While I haven't been expecting the Packers to use the franchise tag on WR Greg Jennings, or keep TE Jermichael Finley, this new report makes it clear that the Packers are considering both options:

He's right RT @aaron_nagler Absurd how much information is packed in @bobmcginn piece on future of Jennings & Finey: bit.ly/138Qn5p
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 25, 2013

The initial report came from Ian Rapoport, who's a great NFL writer but not someone I consider a go-to guy for Packers information, but the link to an article by beat writer Bob McGinn confirms it. Plus, McGinn goes into a lot more detail about how the Packers are trying to choose between Jennings and Finley.

The reason they should want to keep either or both of them is that it would take what was a strength, depth at receiver, and turn it into a problem. While they're fine with Nelson, Cobb, and Jones as their top three receivers, there's no proven players (or high ceiling players) behind them on the depth chart. The Packers could change that by adding a receiver in the draft, but it would still present a problem for 2013.

The reason they want to part ways with both players is that they are too expensive. Bob McGinn points out that Finley's cap salary is $8.75 million in 2013, which is behind only QB Aaron Rodgers, and the salary cap charge for the franchise tag on Jennings should be close to $10 million.

There was some mention about using the franchise tag to trade Jennings, Bob McGinn recalled the time they traded DE Corey Williams after he received it, but I think they would only tag Jennings if they wanted to keep him. As I discussed above, without Jennings and Finley, their receiver depth is thin, especially considering all the injuries they've had at receiver over the past couple seasons. There's some sense in keeping Jennings for one more year, even at an overpriced 2013 salary, because a one-year deal avoids the risks inherent in a long-term contract.

In the end, this is interesting, but their offseason doesn't hinge on this decision. The most important things they need to do this offseason are extend Rodgers and LB Clay Matthews, and upgrade their defensive front seven. Keeping a deep group of receivers together is not as important. They could consider using a second or third round pick on a receiver, there are nine receivers with a 2nd or 3rd round grade according to NFL Draft Scout, and one of them must interest the Packers.

Packers might still franchise Jennings

For mostly this entire offseason, the Packers have reluctant to franchise former WR Greg Jennings. But according to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, a source aware of the team's plans said that the Pack are considering changing their mind.

Many different websites have said that Jennings is the #1 wide receiver on the free-agent market. Him being franchised would be a huge blow to those predictors. I'm sure that there are a lot of fans out there who want to see Jennings sign with their team, and I still think that they should hold out for hope. I think that, in the end, Jennings will not be franchised. He just isn't worth it.

NFL considering moving back offseason schedule in 2014

It was reported today that the NFL may move back it's offseason schedule for the 2014 offseason. Some examples of the possible change would be having the scouting combine in March, the start of free agency in April, and the draft in May.

“Whatever the league thinks is best, count me in,” New York Giants GM Jerry Reese told reporters at the scouting combine on Saturday.

Personally, I wouldn't mind having the dates moved back. I don't why anybody would care, it's a very small matter. The same things would happen but they would just be at different times. Whether the league does it or not doesn't really matter to me.

Packers turning to Texas A&M for advice on how to defend read-option

In last month's playoff loss to the 49ers, the Green Bay Packers gave up a total of 579 yards. Most of those yards came off the notorious read-option offense, an offense that the Packers can't seem to defend. In an interview with NFL.com, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said that the number 579 still haunts him.

"That's a number that will stick in our focus as a defense throughout the offseason," McCarthy said Friday at the NFL Scouting Combine. "We're studying the read-option. ... Actually our defensive staff is going to take a trip to Texas A&M. (Coach) Kevin Sumlin is someone I have great respect for. With his ability to share, both the offensive side and the defensive side, his experience with the read-option.
"It's something from a preparation standpoint we will grow as a staff and be better prepared for in the future."

While running the read-option in that playoff game, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, ran for 181, and scored a total of four touchdowns in the second half alone. Just seeing those numbers is all the explanation I need to understand why the Pack are asking advice from a college team.

Jets coach Ryan says Mark Sanchez will have to earn starting job

In the past two seasons, Jets QB Mark Sanchez has greatly underachieved. Now, it appears that even his own head coach his noticing, saying that the former phenom will have to earn the starting job in 2013 despite his large paycheck.

While being asked by AroundtheLeague.com about who his starter is, Ryan said this:

"No. 1, you heard about what John talked about, the competition. Bringing in competition at every position, not just the quarterback position. ... That is what we want to do. So to say Mark Sanchez or this quarterback or that quarterback, I think there's clearly going to be competition."

So, it appears that Ryan has lost some of his confidence in the guy. Despite him being bad, he'll probably end up starting so that the Jets will get at least some of their money's worth.

The NFL Combine Is This Weekend: Who Are The Packers Watching?

The answer is everyone. The Green Bay Packers are sure to focus their scouting in some areas, but they'll be watching every player. You never know who they might select. Two years ago, wide receiver was a low priority until they selected Randall Cobb in the second round. And last year, cornerback wasn't considered a need but they drafted CB Casey Hayward at the end of the second round. This year, they need to focus on the defensive front seven (I expect they'll address the center position later in the draft) so the big day is next Monday, when the defensive lineman and linebackers work out.

It's gonna be a red and black day at the NFL combine on Monday. Six UGA guys in workouts that day: es.pn/Yd9tDq
— David Ching (@ESPNChing) February 21, 2013

This is as good an article as any because Georgia (and the SEC) is loaded with top talent on the defensive line and at linebacker. DT John Jenkins is a run stuffing defensive lineman who won't provide a pass rush, but any help on the defensive line would be appreciated and he's projected to be available late in the first round.

At linebacker, OLB Jarvis Jones should be long gone (a likely top 10 pick) by the time the Packers are on the clock. LB Alec Ogletree may move inside in the NFL and could be of interest to the Packers, but he might be better suited as an outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme and he had a little arrest recently.

So Monday is the day to watch and see how the mock draft rankings re-shuffle after all these top prospects record some official times, and we can re-look at who the Packers might select in April.

James Jones says that he's against helmet-to-helmet hit rules

As you all know, the NFL has become obsessed with protecting it's players from head injuries. One of these new rules is that you can be given a 15-yard penalty for a helmet-to-helmet hit on another player, a rule that Packers WR James Jones disagrees with.

“I think the helmet-to-helmet rule, where defenders have to hit at a certain target, I think they need to eliminate that,” Jones said. “I’d rather get hit in the hlemet and shoulder than have a defender take my knees out.”

Before I saw this, I agreed with the league. Now, I think Jones has made a good point. A concussion is nowhere near as bad as a torn ACL, yet the long-term effects will always be there. A torn ACL takes about a year to recover from, head trauma lasts forever.

Will The Packers Have Three 1,000 Yard Receivers?

I don't think it's important to the Green Bay Packers' offense that their top three receivers each have 1,000 yards receiving in a single season, but it's fun to discuss. From NFL.com, here's what WR James Jones said recently about the subject:

"I think a 100-catch receiver is gone out of our offense just because Aaron (Rodgers) spreads the ball around so much," he said. "If anybody had a shot to get 100 catches, I'd probably say Randall because he's in the slot and he'll probably get a lot more targets.

"I can see me, Jordy and Randall getting about 80 catches a piece. I can see us all having over 1,000 yards."

In his defense, he did clearly point out that QB Aaron Rodgers targets many different receivers. Which would seem to make it difficult for three specific receivers to hog so many targets. And the Packers have had only had one 1,000 receiver in the past two seasons (WR Jordy Nelson in 2011).

But his point is still valid. Especially if TE Jermichael Finley doesn't return next season, because he's been targeted on average 90 times per season over the past two years. While Jones himself only had 784 yards on 98 targets last season, WR Randall Cobb came close with 954 yards on 104 targets. Nelson had 1,263 yards on 96 targets in 2011 and WR Greg Jennings just missed the century mark with 949 yards on 101 targets in 2011.

The key is health. If Jones, Cobb, and Nelson each played all 16 games next season and they each had 110 targets next season (about 7 per game) then they'll be right around 1,000 yard goal. Arguably the only thing that prevented Nelson and Jennings from 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons was that they both missed games due to injury.

The other big problem is the opposing defense. Last season, Rodgers' yards per attempt was only 7.8, down from 9.2 in 2011. Defenses couldn't stop him, but they could hope to contain him. Nelson and Jones each saw a drop of 3 to 4 yards per reception as defenses took away the deep sideline routes. Their opponents were willing to open up the middle of the field for slants to Cobb and short passes to Finley (88 targets in 2012) in exchange for taking away the big play. And the Packers are probably going to have to take what the defense gives them again next season.

At first I thought Jones was just talking big, but his theory is possible. Still, it doesn't seem likely due to health and defenses' strategies.

Packers increase ticket prices

The Packers, despite selling out every game, will begin raising ticket prices this season.

Price increases range from an average of $2 to $5 dollars depending on it's location in Lambeau. End-zone seats will be increase from $2 to $74 dollars. Tickets from the 20-yard line to the end-zone increase from $5 to $85. Seats between the twenty-yard lines will go up from $5 to $97.

I don't understand this at all. They're a team with a waiting list lasting 30 years yet that's not enough. On the bright side for fans, the Packers may be spending the money on big free-agents.

Who Will The Packers Sign Among Their Restricted Free Agents?

Because the Green Bay Packers' collection of restricted free agents consist entirely of players who were undrafted, the team has some tough choices to make.

My ranking of #Packers' 5 restricted free agents: 1-Dietrich-Smith. 2-Shields. 3-Crabtree. 4-Zombo. 5-Francois. pck.rs/XghbMY
— Mike Vandermause (@MikeVandermause) February 18, 2013

The first question is how much does it cost to tender a contract to a restricted free agent? The levels don't appear to be publicly known, but last season they ranged from $2.742 million to $1.26 million. A tender at the lowest level is tied to the player's original draft selection, but since the Packers didn't draft these five players, the lowest tender will be essentially worthless. The Packers will have to offer the higher amounts to give themselves draft pick compensation protection and that might not work with their salary cap.

The good news is that teams seem to have no interest in signing restricted free agents, especially ones that would require them surrendering their first or second round pick.

C Evan Dietrich-Smith. Would any team offer him a contract to become their starting center? I don't think so, but the Packers probably know better than me. His salary was $619,650 in 2012, so a first (approx. $3 miliion) or second-round tender (approx. $2 million) would be a huge increase. I don't think the Packers want to pay $2 to $3 million for a backup lineman. Mike Vandermause thinks the Packers will offer a first or second-round tender because there's no other candidate on the roster who could start at center. If he does receive a higher tender, it would likely mean he'll be the starter next season and the Packers will look for their center of the future in the later rounds.

CB Sam Shields. It's a no-brainer that he'll receive a first or second-round tender since he's their starting cornerback. Either way, he'll receive a significant raise from $547,540 in 2012 to $2 to $3 million next season. But should it be a first-round or a second-round offer? A second-round tender should be enough to scare off every team. The only downside is that Shields might feel slighted by receiving a second-round tender (and approx. $1 million less).

TE Tom Crabtree. Yes, he's a fan-favorite, but I can't see any reason why he should be tendered a contract. He's obviously liked by the coaches because he's played ahead of TE D.J. Williams and TE Ryan Taylor for the past two seasons, but he probably doesn't want to leave Green Bay and would be happy with a reasonable multi-year deal. Another team or two might show some interest, but I can't see anyone giving him big money.

LB Frank Zombo and LB Robert Francois. I can't see either of them receiving a tender offer. Zombo's struggled too much with injuries and Francois is buried too deep on the bench. Plus, the Packers do have to open up some roster spots for the 2013 draft class.

Packers release Jeff Saturday

The Packers have a tough offseason ahead of them. It will be an offseason filled with tough choices. But yesterday, they made their first easy one.

The team announced yesterday that they are cutting C Jeff Saturday. Saturday played just one season with the team and wasn't as amazing as expected. But due to ignorant fans, he found himself in the Pro Bowl.

While at the Pro Bowl, Saturday announced that would retire, so what Green Bay is likely doing is allowing him to retire an Colt. Saturday played in Indianapolis from 1999-2011.

Where Will Charles Woodson Play In 2013?

Now that the Green Bay Packers have released Charles Woodson, the rumors can start about where he might play next season.

Would Woodson be a good fit for the Patriots? es.pn/12Z6m17
— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) February 18, 2013

Veterans who have been released can start looking for a new employer immediately and don't have to wait for the official start of free agency next month. With the salary cap unlikely to climb next season, teams might be willing to talk but reluctant to sign expensive veterans who have just been released.

Now that he's been released, some of the concerns about Woodson's declining play have started to be written. He's expensive (which has always been obvious) but concerns about his run defense (thinking back on their poor games against RB Adrian Peterson and QB Colin Kaepernick) seem a bit off. He wasn't part of the solution but the problems began with the defensive front seven. Now his freelancing ways are a bad influence on his teammates (they aren't supposed to react to the changing play?) when years earlier he was a great influence on helping players like S Nick Collins and CB Tramon Williams emerge?

I think a bigger problem was that he only had 1 INT and 5 pass defenses last season. His role in 2012 didn't put him in a position to make plays. S Jerron McMillian (who effectively replaced Woodson when he was injured) had the same stat line (1 INT, 5 pass defenses). Woodson and McMillian have a role to play in the middle of the field, but it's not a glamour position and not worth $10 million per season. When rookie CB Casey Hayward took over against slot receivers last season, he went onto have a Woodson-like season (6 INTs, 21 pass defenses). The multiple collarbone injuries are a serious concern going forward but I'm not sure I've seen the decline in Woodson's play yet because his role changed last season.

Former Packer beat writer (current Patriots reporter) Greg Bedard probably has the definitive analysis on whether Woodson would make sense for the Patriots. Because the Patriots never shied away from veterans, definitely have Super Bowl aspirations and a need at safety, he thinks it makes a lot of sense if Woodson can play safety.

I do find all the comments about Woodson's declining speed make him a poor fit at cornerback because I read the same articles about him before the Packers signed him in 2006. If he doesn't have the speed to play at cornerback, his lack of speed won't be an asset at safety. He can still play, even if he doesn't have the elite physical ability he had years ago, and hopefully some team finds a role in which he can excel at next season.

Report: Patriots won't franchise Welker

It appears that the chances of Wes Welker leaving the New England Patriots just went up.

A source close to the Patriots said the team "is simply not willing to place an $11.4 million franchise tag" on the 31-year old veteran.

This doesn't really surprise me as Welker hasn't really had a spectacular season recently. Yeah, he's been decent. But that only gets you so much money. If he's not going to be the Adrian Peterson equivalent of a wide receiver, then it's not worth emptying out your wallet on him. I'm not saying that Welker has no chance of returning, but I am saying that I wouldn't be surprised if he receives a pay cut.

Greg Jennings listed as top Free Agent WR on market

Former Packers WR Greg Jennings has been listed as the top receiver on this year's free agent market. Jennings is expected to make a lot of money after spending his first seven seasons in Green Bay.

This was reported first at ProFootballFocus.com, who had Jennings listed as #1. Here is the rest of their top ten:

1. Greg Jennings
2. Wes Welker
3. Dwayne Bowe
4. Mike Wallace
5. Danny Amendola
6. Brian Hartline
7. Brandon Gibson
8. Domenik Hixon
9. Randy Moss
10. Johnny Knox

In his career, Jennings has made two Pro Bowls(2010,2011), the All Rookie Team(2006), won Super Bowl XLV, and ranked the 56th best player in the league as of 2012. With those accomplishments, it's not too surprising that he is receiving this high praise.