Wednesday, May 07, 2014

2014 NFL Draft: Could The Packers Trade Up or Down?

If you're hoping the Green Bay Packers will either trade up or trade down, then this might not be the draft for you.

Can the Packers trade up? It seems very unlikely. It's starting to get into other teams' heads that trading multiple picks for one player is often a bad idea. Bill Barnwell mentions a few poor decisions, and John Clayton surveys the damage from the 2011 draft. I'm pretty sure that GM Ted Thompson figured this out years ago.

The other big problem is that the Packers' 1st round pick is in a lousy spot at No. 21 overall. There might only be 17 to 18 players who belong in the 1st round. Other teams might view the 21st overall pick as an expensive 2nd round pick, which further devalues it and would require the Packers to offer even more picks (including picks in future years) to move up.

Can the Packers trade down? We probably won't see a lot of teams trying to trade up because this is a deep draft, so other teams can wait and still find a good player at their original spot. There is one exception.
The basic gist of Jason Hirschhorn's article is that other teams might trade up into the bottom part of the 1st round to select a quarterback. If a team doesn't have a competent quarterback, they need to acquire one as soon as possible. The NFL has become a passing league that's devalued the running back position and made having at least an average QB even more important. While Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr probably don't have 1st round grades from most teams, a QB desperate team like the Texans, Browns, or Jags need to trade back into the 1st round if they decide to pass on one in the Top 10.

But is trading down really a good idea? GM Ted Thompson has traded down on many occasions over the past several drafts, picking up extra picks in the later rounds, but that doesn't always lead to finding a impact player. It shouldn't be viewed as a bad thing if the Packers don't trade down at all. However, based on past history, it's almost guaranteed that the Packers will trade down at some point during the draft. They almost always do.

No comments: