Lawrence Guy Signs With The Colts: Ross and Vanderlin On The Practice Squad

The Green Bay Packers added a couple players to the practice squad after DE Lawrence Guy signed with the Colts and after they promoted OL Greg Van Roten to the 53-man roster last week.

New Insiders blog:Packers sign WR Ross, DE Vanderlin to practice squad dlvr.it/2L14S2 #Packers
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) October 17, 2012

Guy was a 7th round draft choice in 2011 who never made a big impression. He had the size to be a good 3-4 DE for the Packers and it seemed like he came from Arizona State as a bit of an underachiever. He certainly didn't overachieve for the Packers. He's been a good fit for the practice squad, someone with the size to play inside or outside for the scout team, but I didn't expect him to have a future with the Packers.

DE Drew Vanderlin's name was familiar since the Packers gave him a tryout in May. I'm not sure this move was motivated as much by Vanderlin's ability as his availability. With Guy's departure before practice starts this week, they probably needed someone right now for the scout team. It's probably a sign that NT B.J. Raji isn't ready to return to practice, so they were down two lineman before signing Vanderlin.

I'm sure QB Aaron Rodgers is excited to see another Cal alum on the roster, but it looks like WR Jeremy Ross was signed just to fill out the practice squad. He was undrafted in 2011 and he's been released by the Patriots and the Colts since then. He's got 4.4 speed but he doesn't appear to have been much of a receiver at Cal; he was at his best in college as a punt returner. Unfortunately for Ross, there's usually a bunch of guys with his skill set looking for NFL jobs.

Out For The Year: Replacing Brandon Saine and D.J. Smith

While the Green Bay Packers looked very impressive in their win on Sunday over the previously undefeated Texans, the victory came with a cost: backup RB Brandon Saine and starting LB D.J. Smith were lost for the season due to knee injuries. Word on CB Sam Shields and LB Nick Perry is pending until later this week.

If Saine played at all on offense, I must have blinked and missed it, but he was a key player on special teams.   Mike McCarthy was complimenting rookie LB Terrell Manning as a special teams player on Monday, so Manning might be playing a larger role in the future. Though Saine didn't play on offense, his loss, in addition to the temporary absence of RB Cedric Benson and the ongoing limited playing time for RB James Starks (turf toe), has made depth a problem at running back. So the waiver claim of RB Johnny White seemed necessary.

White was a 5th round pick in 2011 and probably deep behind Bills' RB Fred Jackson and RB C.J. Spiller on the depth chart, which could have made him expendable in Buffalo. He hasn't done much as a pro, but he was a jack-of-all-trades in college at North Carolina, playing cornerback and wide receiver in addition to running back, so he could fit the role as backup, scout team player, special teams performer quite nicely. The Packers usually have three running backs active each week, so White might get thrown into the mix at special teams right away until Benson returns.

There's been no roster move to replace Smith yet, but as soon as the Packers want to add someone to the 53-man roster, Smith's certain to go onto I.R. They don't need to make a move immediately because Manning was not active against the Texans, so he'll take a backup role and probably play on special teams against the Rams.

Veteran LB Brad Jones spent the offseason preparing to play inside linebacker, which seemed unnecessary a few months ago and now looks like a wise move. Smith got off to a slow start with a poor game against the 49ers, but he'd been looking a lot better over the past few weeks. If Jones was a better player then he would have already been ahead of Smith, but I'm not expecting much of a drop off. I'm also expecting to see a lot more of LB A.J. Hawk; Smith had been playing ahead of Hawk on some of the Packers nickel and dime packages this season.

If Jones struggles, then I'm sure they wouldn't hesitate to give either LB Robert Francois, LB Jamari Lattimore, or Manning a chance (though McCarthy admitted Manning's "farther ahead on special teams than he is on defense.") Losing two inside linebackers (LB Desmond Bishop during the preseason) is a bad thing, but the Packers have a lot of depth to make up for it.

Recap: Packers Upset The Texans in Houston, 42-24

I didn't see that win coming. The Green Bay Packers win over the Texans was a return to form for the 2010 championship team. QB Aaron Rodgers had his most accurate game of the season and his receivers were making some difficult catches (though there were still a few dropped passes). The big trouble spot I've been harping on all season is the offensive line, and they arguably had their best performance of the season. DE J.J. Watt added to his spectacular season with 2 sacks and 3 QB pressures, but his teammates provided little support. When other Texan defenders, such as LB Brooks Reed or LB Connor Barwin, did apply some pressure, Rodgers showed off his ability to escape or throw under pressure (such as the long TD pass to TE Tom Crabtree).

The defense did an amazing job of shutting down the Texans running game (ranked No. 7 by Football Outsiders coming into the game) and the only impact made by RB Arian Foster was on two short-yardage touchdown runs. But the bigger story was shutdown performance on QB Matt Schaub, who was ranked as the No. 5 QB (ahead of Rodgers) by Football Outsiders. Sure he would have been helped if the running game had been better, but that's not the entire story of why the Packers him shut down (and intercepted him twice). With the exception of a blown coverage on TE Owen Daniels for a 27 yard gain, the defensive backs played well and the Packers put good pressure on Schaub. While LB Clay Matthews failed to record a sack (and Watt moved ahead of him to lead the league in that category), he was still a menace, recording 3 QB hits and single-handedly disrupting the Texans' offense in the first quarter.

This game reminded me a lot of the Packers playoff win against the Falcons in early 2011. The Packers were on the road, underdogs, against the highest seeded team in the conference, and they whipped them on both sides of the ball.

A blemish on an impressive win was the high cost of injuries. Defensive starters LB Nick Perry, LB D.J. Smith and CB Sam Shields were all hurt, along with special teamer RB Brandon Saine, and they made early trips to the locker room. All of the injuries looked serious, but we'll have to wait a of couple days to find out. The good news is that the Packers do have depth to overcome it (more playing time for rookie LB Dezman Moses; CB Davon House and LB Terrell Manning might both get a chance after being left inactive against the Texans) but it's not something we want to see.

But I would like to see the Packers put together a couple strong games in a row before saying they've turned a corner. This win against a previously unbeaten team was a huge step forward, however, next week looks like a trap game in St. Louis against the 3-3 Rams (who are 3-0 at home). The Packers have to come right back and win another tough road game, otherwise their win against the Texans is just another peak in what's turned out to be an up-and-down season.

The Lack Of Posts Will Be Ending In The Near Future

I wasn't really inspired to write about the Green Bay Packers after they let the Colts earn a come from behind win last Sunday. Then I found myself in the middle of a brutal week my job, working days and nights, so I haven't been posting over the past few days. While the week's not over yet, my schedule will be back to normal starting next week.

I liked the above shot of Dan Lauria dressed as Vince Lombardi because of the bit about redemption. As bad as it seemed last Sunday, the 2012 season reminds me a lot of the 2009 season (early season problems on the offensive line led to a slow start). The Packers put it all together by the end of the season and made the playoffs. Redemption.

On the other hand, if the Packers o-line can't block Cory Redding of the Colts (2 sacks last Sunday), how many sacks with J.J. Watt have next Sunday night? (shudder)

Could Mike Neal Help The Packers?

#Packers have activated DE @mneal96 and released DE Phillip Merling, the club announced. Neal now eligible to play vs. #Colts Sunday.
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) October 6, 2012

After he was a complete zero last season, and then suspensed four games to open 2012, I was on the fence whether the Packers would release DE Mike Neal. He hadn't been able to stay healthy in either of his first two seasons and he hadn't done anything memorable on the field. His only hope was that his status as a former 2nd round pick would give him another chance and then he'd have to stay healthy for an entire season.

The last defensive lineman in this situation was former first round pick DE Justin Harrell, and the Packers gave him four seasons to turn it around. So it seemed unlikely they would give up on Neal after only two. But the selection of DE Jerel Worthy and DE Mike Daniels, and the free agent signings of DE Anthony Hargrove, Merling, and NT Daniel Muir, gave Neal a lot of competition. However, Neal showed just enough during the preseason to stick ahead of Hargrove and Muir. He's now been kept ahead of Merling too.

Something that's really helped him is that none of the other players the Packers have added this year have made much of an impact. Worthy is often on the field, but he's more notable for jumping offsides. Daniels has shown hustle, but he's played little and only recorded 1 sack and 1 tackle on the season. Merling only recorded 2 tackles in his first four games. So if Neal is improved a year after knee surgery, and he can rush better than Worthy or Daniels (neither of them have shown much so far), then he could be a welcomed addition. I expect he'll still be behind Worthy on the depth chart, but Neal should get a chance or two against the Colts to prove that he can do more. We'll have to wait and see whether he can take advantage of it.

Time To Bench Greg Jennings This Week For Your Fantasy Team

#Packers Injury Report: WR Greg Jennings (groin, OUT FOR SUNDAY), G T.J. Lang (personal, DNP), S Sean Richardson (hamstring, DNP)
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) October 4, 2012

Two other Packers were listed on the injury report, S M.D. Jennings and DE Ryan Pickett, who were both hurt during the Saints game, but it would be a surprise if either of them were out against the Colts. Unlike the Seahawks game, when the Packers left Jennings as a game time decision, they've decided he needs time to rest. His groin injury is lingering and Mike McCarthy is frustrated, so letting him rest is probably the best decision.

So what does it mean for the Packers? Here are the wide receiver rankings for their top four wide receivers according to Football Outsiders:

Player	DYAR	Rank	Passes	Yards	TD
Jones	77	12	23	191	3
Cobb	49	26	21	162	0
Nelson	42	33	31	260	1
Jennings	-19	75	22	78	1

Jennings had his ranking slip since last week, but there are now more receivers with over 15 pass attempts. He's now further away from the bottom of the list after recording a touchdown reception against the Saints. Still, he only has 78 yards for the season, with a poor 55% catch rate, so it's understandable. He's unlikely to improve those numbers if he tries to play when he's hurt.

Donald Driver isn't ranked by Football Outsiders because he's only had 2 receptions, although one of them was for a touchdown. He should have more opportunities against the Colts' 26th ranked pass defense, and all of the receivers could be breakout candidates. You'd have to put Jordy Nelson at the top of the list because he's been targeted the most this season (31 times).

A lot of this will depend on how the Colts play because the Packers have different ways to beat them. If the Colts blitz, it could force TE Jermichael Finley to block more and would likely involve more short passes to Cobb and RB Cedric Benson. If the Colts play a deep zone to take the sidelines away from Jones and Nelson, it could open up the intermediate routes for Finley. If the Colts stay with a single deep safety, it could provide great one-on-one match-ups for Jones and Nelson.

Maybe all of them will get into the game as the Colts try different defensive alignments to shut down the offense. QB Aaron Rodgers has said he likes playing indoors, so maybe it will be a good day for whoever touches the ball.

What The Defense Could Have Done Better Against The Saints

While I was watching the coaches film from the Packers win over Saints, I was focusing on the defense and what they could have done better. One thing that stood out was the positioning of S Jerron McMillian, who played like an inside linebacker for most of the game, without much success. This resulted in a lot of time on the bench for the starting inside linebackers. Sometimes, it even meant that LB A.J. Hawk was on the bench while LB D.J. Smith was on the field. And after a slow start to the season, Smith is looking a lot better in pass coverage.

To QB Drew Brees's credit, he did a good job of picking apart the middle and throwing away from the help defender. Since WR Marques Colston and TE Jimmy Graham are bigger than every Packer defensive back, and a threat to go downfield, the Packers rarely pressed in coverage and gave the Saints' receivers some space to catch short passes.

I looked back at the game film from the one time the Saints had struggled this season; during the fourth quarter of their overtime loss to the Chiefs. Could the Packers had done something that the Chiefs did against the Saints? The number one thing they could have done was rush the quarterback better, but that's easier said than done. The Chiefs did a better job of taking the middle of the field away in pass coverage; LB Derrick Johnson's size made it harder to throw in between the hash marks to Graham. Also, Brees just wasn't as accurate as he missed on a couple sideline throws, which might have been caused by the Chiefs' pass rush. The Saints also seemed more determined to go deep against the Chiefs than the Packers, which led to a few deep incompletions, but that might have been a matter of taking what the defense was giving you and Brees missed on some deep sideline throws. Scheme wise, there wasn't something different the Packers could have obviously done. It was really up to their defenders to make a play.

The good news for the Packers defense is that they should only get better. They do need either LB Nick Perry or DE Jerel Worthy to step up as a reliable pass rusher alongside LB Clay Matthews. Rookie McMillian and CB Casey Hayward played a lot against the Saints, with mixed success, but they should only get better with experience. Hopefully we see more of it next Sunday against the Colts.

Please Don't Feed Cedric Benson The Ball

This isn't something that's going to have a major impact on the Packers' offense, over the first four games they've attempted 157 passes (not including sacks) and rushed the ball only 88 times, but it was discouraging to see offensive coordinator Tom Clements say this bit of conventional wisdom:

“He’s a workhorse and when he touches the ball, the more he touches it, the better he gets,” said Packers offensive coordinator Tom Clements on Monday of Benson. “We’d like to work those other guys in there if the opportunity presents itself but you try to get (Benson) the ball to get him going.” 

This looks like a corollary of The Establishment Clause (a.k.a. establish the run). Teams don't run to win, they run when they are winning. He may look better as he approaches the 20th carry mark because it probably means his team is winning.

I view more touches as an opportunity for more fumbles, which was something that almost cost them against the Seahawks. RB Cedric Benson is a strong runner who is probably the best back on the roster at fighting through tackles. His 53% success rate is the 10th best according to Football Outsiders but they only rank him as the 17th best back overall. He's useful, but he's not going to make the offense that much better and the risk of fumbles is real.

Also, this would take RB Alex Green out of the mix and he has the potential to be an explosive player. He was eased back into action following his knee surgery, but he came close to breaking a couple runs during the preseason. He has upside that Benson doesn't have and he may even be a better running back right now, if he was given the opportunity. RB James Starks (when healthy) is a lot like Benson (strong runner) and neither back is a big play threat. Green could provide that element to the offense which has been lacking since RB Ryan Grant's 2009 season.

Recap: Packers Comeback To WIn, 28-27

Despite the departure of the replacement refs, two bad calls almost cost them the game (no offensive pass interference called on WR Marques Colston's touchdown reception, and no fumble called on RB Darren Sproles during his kick off return). There's nothing more to do about it except hope that penalty karma eventually pays them back.

With the first four games in the book, and arguably the toughest part of their schedule complete, the Packers are in decent shape sitting at 2-2. I had expected them to lose one of their first four games anyway, and they've come away with two recorded wins (plus one taken away by a replacement ref). They've managed this despite struggles on offense and few turnovers created by the defense (yes, the replacement refs were part of the problem) but it's left them with a -3 turnover margin, which is very uncharacteristic for one of Mike McCarthy's teams.

The main problem has, surprisingly, been the offense. They didn't look right during the preseason, but I expected the veteran group to put it together by the start of the season. It hasn't happened yet. QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't been as accurate and the offensive line has had trouble in pass protection. They looked a lot better against the Saints thanks to improved pass blocking (0 sacks, 1 QB hit) but the Saints don't have a pass rush either and rank at or near the bottom in total defense. If the offensive line can build on their success on Sunday, they'll keep getting better all season long. It sure didn't hurt to see TE Tom Crabtree, one of their best blockers, return after missing the eight sack disaster in Seattle.

It wasn't a great game for the defense as they had trouble covering Colston and TE Jimmy Graham on 3rd down. The pass rush wasn't much of a factor, but the Saints protect well (9 sacks allowed in 4 games this season). CB Sam Shields had a bad game and allowed WR Joseph Morgan to run downfield uncovered (then failed to wrap up on the tackle) but he had these type of problems during the preseason so it should come as no surprise. He might only be keeping the seat warm until CB Davon House returns from his shoulder injury. I really wish DE Jerel Worthy would stop jumping offsides. They'd look a lot better if they could start forcing some turnovers, which has been a staple of their defense for the past few seasons. It feels like that's only a matter of time.

Looking ahead over the next five games, the schedule features two games versus currently unbeaten teams. Next Sunday is the Colts at Lambeau and it should be another big game for the offense. Then they travel to Houston to face the Texans (that's probably a loss), at the Rams (who's offense is still bad), Jaguars at Lambeau (QB Blaine Gabbert looks awful), and finally the undefeated Cardinals at Lambeau (a matchup I still like for the Packers).  If they could come away with a record of 6-3 entering the bye week, while not as good as their 9-0 start in 2011, it would be the same record they had on their way to the Super Bowl in 2010.

Nick Collins "Likely Will Be Forced To Retire"

So says the article from Dan Hanzus at NFL.com. When the Packers released S Nick Collins back in April, it was clear that the Packer organization didn't want him to ever play football again but Collins himself was working on a comeback. A recent visit with his surgeon apparently has made him change his mind:

The specialist who performed Collins' neck surgery advised the ex-Packer to to end his pursuit of an NFL comeback following a recent examination. Collins had been training regularly at IMG Academy in Florida, though that training ceased after the latest examination.

I'm not glad his career is over, but I don't want to see him playing again if he's risking so much.

He had a great career as his three consecutive trips to the Pro Bowl (2008-2010) would attest. The Packers are still trying retool (Jerron McMillian seems like the answer for the moment) their secondary which collapsed last season, in part, due to Collins's absence. He made a lot of big plays (17 INTs from 2008 through 2010) but he also cleaned up when mistakes were made in the secondary.

Maybe The Owners Do Watch Monday Night Football

More details. RT @nfl345: NFL, NFLRA Reach Eight-Year Agreement tinyurl.com/bq8beq5
— Greg Aiello (@gregaiello) September 27, 2012

I didn't think the owners had any shame left, and that they were content to let the replacement refs screw things up until the owners broke the union. However, after everyone, except for this guy, watched a game winning INT become a game winning TD, Twitter exploded as T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton became stars of the internet, and everyone turned on Sportscenter to see WTF just happened, the NFL owners finally agreed to a reasonable offer that they could have made months ago.

I'm sure the referees were asking for too much at times, and both sides had a lot of pride involved, but the owners were the ones who needed to make a deal now so I would guess that most of the final concessions came from them.

Unfortunately, this won't bring a win back to Green Bay and the Packers are stuck on 1-2 instead of 2-1. But at least we'll always have this video.

Mike McCarthy Shows How To Fix The Packers Offense

The replacement refs still suck but there's only so much that can be said about them. It's time to move onto the Packers next pressing problem: Where has all the offense gone?

The first answer was in the title of this post: Mike McCarthy has already fixed it. Against the Seahawks, it was a tale of two halves. The first half was an endless loop of sacks, eight in total, and the offense went nowhere as the Seahawks skunked them. Then McCarthy made some adjustments at halftime which included more short, quick passes, and a lot more running by RB Cedric Benson. The offense went on three scoring drives in the second half (two field goals and one touchdown) which over the course of an entire game (26 points) would have been less than the dynamic 2011 offense (35 points per game) but similar to their 2010 season (24.2 points per game). That's probably not going to win QB Aaron Rodgers another MVP award, but it was good enough to win the Super Bowl. Of course, they can still do better.

The first place to look is the offensive line. I don't know who kidnapped RT Bryan Bulaga and replaced him with ex-Packer Allen Barbre, but some adjustments need to be made. I don't expect them to bench Bulaga for undrafted rookie RT Don Barclay, but they need to have a Plan B ready in case Bulaga doesn't turn it around. Right now, the Packers lead the league with 16 sacks allowed, and it reminds me of their 2009 season, when the Packers once again led the league in that category (51). Using ESPN's QBR, which includes sacks in the quarterback's rating, here's a comparison of 2009 to 2012.

2009 Opponent	2009 QBR	2012 Opponent	2012 QBR
Bears	53.6	49ers	55.1
Bengals	58.3	Bears	29.3
Rams	81.4	Seahawks	54.3
Vikings	33.9	Saints
Lions	86.1	Colts
Browns	95	Texans
Vikings	49.1	Rams

I stopped after Week 7 because, in 2009, that's when RT Mark Tauscher returned to the starting line-up, and nearly all the early season sack problems went away. Part of it was Rodgers; he was holding the ball too long, and that same problem was the cause of at least one sack against the Seahawks. But it's not the main concern. In 2009, the offensive tackles, and injuries to Tauscher and LT Chad Clifton, were the primary causes. The only early season bright spots were wins against the Rams, Lions, and Browns because those three teams sucked, and only a four game winning streak to end the Browns' 2009 season improved their combined, three team record to 8-40. That Week 4 Vikings game, with Daryn Colledge starting at LT and Barbre at RT, left Rodgers virtually unprotected.

Unfortunately, the entire offensive line is having some problems this season, though Bulaga's disaster in the Seattle stands out as the worst of them. They can play better, and hopefully the veteran group turns it around ASAP.

After Clifton and Tauscher returned in 2009, Rodgers went onto finish with a season QBR of 70.2, the second best ranking of his career. He's not going to repeat his 2011 season, but a return to 2009 is likely.

Then there are the Packer wide receivers. Are they not getting open? Here are the rankings from Football Outsiders for Rodgers's top three wide receivers:

	FO Rank
Jones	25
Nelson	37
Jennings	63

I'm leaving out TE Jermichael Finley, who's been targeted more times than any other Packer this season, because it's only been three games and he was wildly inconsistent last season. He's probably playing about as well as he did in 2011, except he hasn't had a multiple TD reception game to boost his overall stats.

All three wide receivers are down from last season, but Greg Jennings has fallen off a mountain. Of the receivers who have been targeted more than 15 times this season, only two other receivers are worse than Jennings. Nothing good is happening when he is thrown the ball. A groin injury has played it's part, but they need to focus at getting him back on track and seeing how that effects the rest of the offense.

But the thing that might help the most is that the Saints are coming to town. Currently, Football Outsiders has their defense ranked as the 6th worst overall and 3rd worst against the pass.

Recap: Refs Defeat Packers in Seattle: 14 to 12

There are plenty of tweets out there about it, but this one sums it up.

These games are a joke.
— Troy Aikman (@TroyAikman) September 25, 2012

SB Nation has the play from three different angles if you have the stomach for it.

The game was a disaster for the refs with calls, no-calls, phantom calls against both teams, but none of them were matched the Top 3 that went against the Packers. First, the game winning touchdown, with no better summation of the replacement refs debacle than two refs, standing a few feet apart, making different calls (one INT, another TD). Bonus screw-up: Jon Gruden was all over the non-call on pass interference against CB Sam Shields, as WR Golden Tate shoves him to the ground. Second, the pass interference call on Shields, as WR Sidney Rice was draped all over his back, that bailed the Seahawks out of 1st and 35. Third was the overturned interception by rookie S Jerron McMillian after a phantom roughing the passer call against LB Erik Walden (QB Russell Wilson must have had the red jersey on for that play).

The game was hard to watch. I've always taken the opinion that bad calls even out over the long run, but this game was extreme. Seattle had a couple of bad calls go against them (LT Russell Okung was called for holding when his hand brushed against LB Clay Matthews, and a non-call pass interference on CB Charles Woodson late in the game, are two examples), but none of those bad calls had the impact of the ones that went against the Packers.

This would have been an ugly game even without the refs. Seattle had no offense except for two long touchdowns to Tate. RT Bryan Bulaga completely fell apart in the first half which started the cascade of 8 sacks in the first half (zero allowed in the second half, but Rodgers rarely tried to throw down field). The Packer offense needs to connect on big plays and they can't if their o-line can't protect for more than 2 seconds. On the bright side, it was a second consecutive great game for the defense.

But it's impossible to have an honest review of their performance when the game is punctuated with so many penalties and so many bad calls by the refs. It's not just this game, it's been a bad season for the replacement refs who are just overwhelmed with responsibilities that are beyond them. All any team can do it play hard, press the boundaries (and work the refs) on every play, and hope for the best. Right now, the NFL is out of control.

Looking Ahead To Packers At Seahawks

On Sunday I watched the 49ers and Eagles go completely flat on the road against two opponents, who I would guess, they didn't expect to be a serious threat (Vikings and Cardinals). That's the danger in tonight's game in Seattle, and I hope the Packers are prepared for it. There seems to be little separating a lot of teams in the NFL this season.

It's been a quiet week for the Packers, so while I had some questions about the role and status of WR Greg Jennings and RB James Starks last week, they don't seem to have resolved themselves before the start of the game.

The Packers injury report isn't huge, but it has a lot of uncertainty on it. Backup LB Jamari Lattimore is clearly out, and it doesn't look good for TE Tom Crabtree either. CB Davon House doesn't appear to be fully recovered from his preseason shoulder injury.

I'd be surprised if RG Josh Sitton can't play, but he was limited in practice all week. If he can't go then OL Evan Dietrich-Smith would start in his place. The uncertainty surrounds Jennings, Starks, and DE C.J. Wilson, who all look like game-time decisions to me. But I don't expect it'll be a problem for the coaching staff, who've had all week to prepare for the absence of all three players.

The Seahawks appear to be in good health, with only WR Doug Baldwin apparently out for the game. WR Sidney Rice was curiously listed on the injury report with "Rest" instead of an actual injury. It's common for a team to sit out a veteran who has a long-term injury, but the Packers would list an actual injury (i.e. LT Chad Clifton was usually limited each week in practice due to his chronic leg injuries).

Will The Packers Miss Greg Jennings?

Setback for Packers' Greg Jennings es.pn/QpqunX
— Kevin Seifert (@espn_nfcnblog) September 20, 2012

WR Greg Jennings sat out practice on Thursday because he's not over the groin injury he suffered late in the game against the 49ers. The Packers expected to get him back this week. However, I wouldn't rule him out for next Monday night if he can get back to practice by the end of the week.

QB Aaron Rodgers's stats were down last week against the Bears without Jennings, but he also threw 12 fewer passes (44 to 32). Maybe the biggest concern is that WR James Jones, who should receive most of the snaps in his place, occasionally runs poor routes and it led to an interception last Sunday. I don't expect to see either WR Randall Cobb or WR Donald Driver replace Jones because they seem intended to play different roles in the offense. Jones isn't as good as Jennings, so while the offense will be fine without him, they'll only get better once he returns.

As for the Seahawks, I don't expect they'll play differently if Jennings is available or not. The 49ers and Bears played similar styles against the Packers by playing both safeties deep to take away the sideline threats. Until TE Jermichael Finley or Cobb start gashing big gains down the middle of the field, or RB Cedric Benson runs wild against a seven-man front, I expect most defenses will scheme the Packers that way.

What Role Will James Starks Play On Sunday?

Instead of discussing the dumb question whether QB Aaron Rodgers is a great leader (of course he is), it's better to write about a real football question.

WR Greg Jennings (groin), DL CJ Wilson (groin) and RB James Starks all practicing today #Packers
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) September 18, 2012

Of course, they'll be happy to have Jennings back and he'll slide right back into his starting role. Wilson should still be their run stopper at defensive end and he might play a bigger role if they focus on stopping RB Marshawn Lynch.

But what role will Starks play on Sunday? Will he play at all? I don't have an answer and I don't expect Mike McCarthy will reveal his plans in a press conference either. Here are the players he could replace on the 45-man active roster this Sunday.

RB Cedric Benson. I haven't seen anything to indicate that the Packers aren't happy with him or he'll be removed as the starter. It's possible they'll simply re-insert Starks into the starting role and deactivate Benson on Sunday, but that seems unlikely. Especially since Mike McCarthy said Starks will have some "transition time."

RB Brandon Saine. Surprisingly, this seems like the least likely move. Saine has been covering punts and kicks over the first two games and I can't recall ever seeing Starks on special teams. He certainly hasn't been a leading special teams tackler, an honor that was shared last season by LBs D.J. Smith and Brad Jones.

RB Alex Green. On the other hand, I haven't seen Green on special teams this season and that could be intentional as they easy his surgically reconstructed knee back into action. If Starks takes anyone's place on Sunday, it probably would be Green's.

Bottom line, unless Starks slides back into the starting role and pushes Benson aside, which seems unlikely, I'm not sure what he'll be doing against the Seahawks. He might take Green's role of carrying the ball a couple times or he might spend a lot of time standing on the sidelines. Even if he doesn't play much (if at all) on Sunday, you never know when they'll need him to take over a prominent role again.

Watching The NFC North: Vikings and Lions Played On Sunday

I'm guessing that the Packer players and coaches were doing the same thing as many of us on Sunday: watching the other games around the NFL.

The game I probably should have watched closely was the Cowboys at Seahawks, since the Packers will be traveling to Seattle next week Monday. From what I saw, it looked like the Cowboys never had their heads in the game. RB Felix Jones fumbled the opening kickoff, and then the Cowboys had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. They were down 10-0 five minutes into it and their offense never seemed to get on track. The Seahawks usually play better at home, and the last time the Packers played at Seattle, the Seahawks had the misfortune of starting QB Charlie Frye, which they won't have to do ever again. The Packers are going to have to play four quality quarters of football to avoid losing their first road game.

The Vikings were on the road at Indianapolis, and they tied the game late with a last minute touchdown, but QB Andrew Luck moved the Colts into position for the game winning field goal before the clock ran out. After two games, the Vikings are 1-1 and QB Christian Ponder has a QB rating over 100 for the season. But they've also done it against the dregs of the AFC South (Colts and Jaguars) and their defense looks porous. They host the 49ers next week, followed by a trip to Detroit, so we'll probably know a lot more about their team after those games.

I doubt the Lions are panicking, but it's been a pretty blah showing over their first two weeks. They barely survived their home opener against the Rams; thanks to a last second, game winning touchdown. Then they trailed the entire game against the 49ers on Sunday night. It was a bit like the Packers' loss to the 49ers; they were behind all game, the 49ers made few mistakes, and only a late rally made the score look respectable.

The only major concern for the Lions should be QB Matthew Stafford, who's had QB ratings of 69.4 and 78.9 in his first two games, after finishing the 2011 season with six straight games of ratings over 97. A similar concern could be raised about the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers, but his QB rating over the first two games is actually better than it was during their playoff loss to the Giants. There doesn't appear to be anything obviously wrong, so maybe it's just a matter of getting into a rhythm.

In the NFC North, after two weeks, all four teams are tied with a record of 1-1 and no clear leader has emerged in the division. There's still a long way to go.

Packers Win Recap: Packers Defeat Bears, 23-10

A win against the Bears is always good because, you know, rivalry, but a win against a divisional opponent can matter in playoff seeding. It also helped the Packers bounce back from a disappointing home opener, and gives them something positive entering into their mini-bye week (10 days off). It also gave the running game and the defense some signs of life after a bad game against the 49ers.

Looking back at the game film from last week, it was apparent the Packers needed to run the ball more (Benson only had 18 yards rushing against the 49ers) and involve more receivers (only 5 players caught passes against the 49ers). This would help them beat the two-deep safeties who are taking away the Packers' deep threat. They did both, using a combination of Benson and Cobb to rush for over 100 yards and completing passes to 7 different receivers (though Rodgers only completed passes to 6).

That offensive strategy didn't help Rodgers's stats (219 yards, 6.8 ypa) but 5 sacks certainly disrupted what he wanted to do. Also, he's just not quite on the same page with his receivers as Nelson and Jones missed out on long receptions. You know he's going to start completing those passes at some point.

After a poor defensive effort against the 49ers, the Packers defense staged a dramatic turnaround. It certainly helped that the Bears' offensive line has some problems (Go Clay Matthews, Go!), but the Packers made three changes in personnel.

As I suspected, Bush with zero defensive snaps last night. Tramon Williams allowed only 2 catches for 21 yards and two picks
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) September 14, 2012

The soft coverage of CB Jarrett Bush was replaced by a lot tighter coverage by CB Sam Shields and rookie CB Casey Hayward. The pass rush alone might have made the difference, but this change certainly helped.

Per PFF, Erik Walden with 36 defensive snaps last night, Perry with 20 and undrafted rookie Dezman Moses with 19
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) September 14, 2012

Maybe this was done because Walden is known for big games against the Bears, and he did finish with a half-sack and 2 QB hits. Maybe rookie LB Nick Perry is better with fewer snaps and maybe rookie LB Dezman Moses deserves some too. But Perry was part of the problem in pass coverage against the 49ers and maybe the coaches were trying to address that problem too. Unfortunately, the Bears had their only success when throwing to whoever was covered by LB D.J. Smith, so that's something that still needs to be addressed.

Also, rookie S Jerron McMillian had a big game with one INT (it looked like he held onto it) and one dropped INT. That's probably not quite reminding anyone of former S Nick Collins yet, but he's already made more big plays than I've ever seen from S M.D. Jennings.

It's not the way I would hope to start the season, but 1-1 after the first 2 games isn't a disaster either. They don't play again until Monday, September 24th (at Seattle) after which they hopefully have WR Greg Jennings and RB James Starks back from injury. If they can start connecting on those deep passes once in a while, they'll start looking a lot like the Packers we've watched over the past couple seasons.

Watching The Coaches Film From Last Weekend

The NFL has made available, through it's Game Rewind package (free trial through next Monday), the coaches film, otherwise known as All-22 (you can see all 22 players on the field for each play). It's no substitute for watching the game in HD on a regular broadcast (it's a small screen online and the players are small on it), but it's really interesting and skips through all the dead time between plays.

Re-watching the Packers loss to the 49ers, what stood out was how well the 49ers played. Some players had bad days, LT Joe Staley was eaten up by LB Clay Matthews, but he was the only player who obviously struggled. Unfortunately, we can't really discuss the penalty situation for either team because the replacement refs were so bad. QB Alex Smith threw no interceptions with only 6 incomplete passes, and his only real problem with accuracy occurred during their last drive of the first half, when Smith couldn't complete a single pass but K David Akers nailed 63 yard field goal anyway. Even the Packers usually need their opponent to make a turnover or two, and the 49ers didn't turn it over once.

I didn't watch the entire Bears game, only the first quarter, but even then the Bears made more mistakes then the 49ers made through four quarters. The Bears first offensive drive went for minus 11 yards and their second drive was even worse; a pick-six by QB Jay Cutler. The Bears offense showed up thereafter, but even their first touchdown drive was bailed out by a dumb pass interference penalty on Colts CB Justin King. The Bears are going to have to avoid those mistakes, if they can, to beat the Packers.

What can the Packers do to fix the problems last week on offense? The 49ers played their safeties deep and let their front seven take care of the run. Some teams can make you pay for it, but obviously, running the ball isn't the strength of the Packers offense (RB Cedric Benson had 9 carries for 18 yards). If the Bears try to run the same defense, the Packers are going to have to run the ball better.

With the safeties playing deep, it meant that WR Greg Jennings and WR Jordy Nelson were effectively double-covered the entire game. It also explains why the leading receivers were WR James Jones (who was left in single coverage) and WR Randall Cobb (who often was covered by a linebacker). Those are mismatches the offense did exploit, and it could have gone better if Jones could have hauled in (without committing pass interference) one of those long, sideline bombs. TE Jermichael Finley did record three drops, but only one led to a punt. As much as it will help to have a running game, and force the safeties to cheat a little closer to the line of scrimmage, other receivers are going to have to make defenses pay for leaving them in single coverage.

How about the run defense? Though he ended the game with 9 tackles, I was underwhelmed by the performance of LB D.J. Smith. He didn't make a single big play (tackle for a loss, forced fumble, pass defense) and maybe recorded a missed tackle or two. Hopefully he improves with more playing time, but right now, I'm wondering about LB Robert Francois. But Smith doesn't play on the strong side, where LB Nick Perry and DE Ryan Pickett usually line up, and when Pickett wasn't on the field, the 49ers had success running to that side.

As for the pass defense, there seemed to be three main problems. One was that they sometimes left a linebacker cover a wide receiver within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. That usually didn't work, but maybe that's something Dom Capers is willing to concede. The second was the botched coverage of WR Randy Moss on his touchdown reception, which appears to have been addressed. And finally; CB Jarrett Bush. It's already been reported that Bush was a liability, but he played very soft coverage and paid for it. Hopefully, he's already fallen behind CB Sam Shields (who gave up a touchdown of his own, but is still an improvement) and I don't have any other good suggestion until CB Davon House is healthy.

Bottom line; I was a lot more optimistic after re-watching the loss to the 49ers. There are fixes the Packers can make. They can run the ball better and take advantage of Cobb or Jones deep (if teams are going to double Jennings and Nelson). The defense can play tighter in coverage, and they are going to force a turnover or two each week. It's time to show the Bears the adjustments they've made.

Greg Jennings Will Probably Miss The Bears Game

The fact that WR Greg Jennings was unable to practice on the eve of their game against the Bears is probably a sign that he's not going to play. Mike McCarthy didn't rule him out, he's technically listed as doubtful, but usually players don't play if they miss the final practice of the week.

It's been a rough season so far for Jennings. He missed time during the preseason with a concussion, and now he's suffered a groin injury. In wondering whether the Packers will miss Jennings on Thursday night, I came across something odd from the season opener.

Jennings was targeted on 9 passes against the 49ers, which is about average for him, but Aaron Rodgers only attempted passes to five different receivers (Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Finley, and Cobb). That's really strange. Usually the other tight ends and running backs have a few passes thrown their way, but there were zero passes thrown to running or full backs against the 49ers (unless you consider Cobb a running back because he lined up in the backfield on several plays).

Just as an example, here's the box score from their playoff loss to the Giants, and Rodgers attempted passes to 11 different receivers. It's an advantage to have so many different receivers involved in the passing game, and attempting passes to only 5 different players doesn't seem the way to go. The Packers won't have more than 5 eligible receivers on the field at any given time, but mixing up the personnel and the look of the formation (some plays with multiple tight ends and fewer wide receivers) gives opposing defenses more to prepare for.

So if the Packers are reluctant (for some reason) to have more players involved as receivers, it puts more pressure on the other four receivers to get open because Jennings was targeted on over 20% of Rodgers's passes last Sunday. It's almost guaranteed that WR Donald Driver will have more than three snaps against the Bears, but with this apparently new strategy of involving fewer receivers, I would think Jennings's loss would hurt more than I expected.

If You Allow A Touchdown To Randy Moss, You Find A Seat On The Bench

At first, it was hard to tell which defensive player was supposed to be covering a wide open Randy Moss when he caught a touchdown last Sunday. S Morgan Burnett was the closest player, but he was jumping up-and-down angry and he seemed to be mad at someone else. LB D.J. Smith didn't drop back in coverage, but that might not have been his responsibility. Finally, S M.D. Jennings came into the screen right after the catch, and I did notice that rookie S Jerron McMillian played during the second half. Jennings has now confirmed it:

Packers S M.D. Jennings on getting pulled in favor of Jerron McMillian: "I blew my opportunity, so they put 'J' in and gave him his chance."
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) September 11, 2012

I've never been very impressed with M.D. Jennings, but he had never before seemed like an obvious liability. A blown coverage is the type of play that keeps a young defender glued to the bench. Back in 2009, the Packers released one safety, and benched another, after Aaron Rouse (Bengals in week 2) and Derrick Martin (Vikings in week 8) botched assignments in the secondary.

I don't think McMillian is ready, and neither do the coaches if he was a reserve to start the season, but I do like his potential. Maybe the solution is to let Charles Woodson spend more time at safety, but it's not like the situation at cornerback is really solid either. Bears QB Jay Cutler has noticed the Packers' problem.

On a somewhat related note, the Packers have one less player in the defensive backfield with the release of CB Brandian Ross because they needed a roster spot for LB Erik Walden. Ross was a surprising addition to the 53-man roster, and with 11 defensive backs on the roster, I thought one of them would have to go to make room for Walden, once he was reinstated.

I expect the Packers will use Walden on special teams, and maybe even a few plays on defense. He will be good in that role; he's just not an every down starter. I wouldn't be surprised to see M.D. Jennings left inactive so that Walden can play on Thursday night.

Will The Packers Bench Jarrett Bush?

I don't know what's going to happen on Thursday night, or if the coaches are just waiting for CB Davon House to get healthy, but here's one change we might see. I'm not placing all the blame at the feet of CB Jarrett Bush, but he wasn't part of the solution against the 49ers.

@jasonjwilde Would be shocked if Jarrett Bush is a starter next week. If he is, teams need to go at him hard in pass coverage.
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) September 10, 2012

Rookie CB Casey Hayward isn't ready and he'd get burned at least once against the Bears, but QB Jay Cutler is known for making some questionable pass attempts and Hayward came out of college known for his ball skills. If Hayward managed one interception, replacing him for Bush would probably be worth it.

Feeling Sick Recap: Packers Lose Home Opener To 49ers, 30-22

The best thing I can think to say about the Green Bay Packers opening game loss to the 49ers is that it's over. It reminded me a little of their playoff loss to the Giants; in a matchup of two quality teams, only one was ready to play.

Penalties. In the first week with replacement refs, maybe the Packers did what only Eagles WR Jason Avant admitted publicly; "Guys are going to kind of cheat." There seemed to be a lot of penalties around the league in week 1, and maybe every team was pushing it to the limit. The Packers had 10 penalties for the game, and at least 8 in the first half, so maybe there was an adjustment on that front at halftime. Still, two penalties in particular (hold/pass interference calls on Jarrett Bush and Charles Woodson) helped extend 49er drives, and gave the offense fewer chances in the first half.

Offense. I was a little concerned about the offensive inefficiency during the preseason, Aaron Rodgers probably had his least productive preseason since he's been named the starter, and it seemed to have spilled over into the regular season. His interception was really bad, but otherwise his accuracy was good and the offense seemed more efficient in the second half. They weren't ready for the start of the season, and it showed against a great defense. I expect they'll play better in the coming weeks.

Defense. What a wreck, though it was nice to see that Clay Matthews is off to a great start (2.5 sacks).

The run defense isn't going to be great, but it was better than it looked (32 carries and 186 yards against). The two big running plays were a designed quarterback run by backup QB Colin Kaepernick for 17 yards (it set up a field goal) and I don't know what Dom Capers was thinking at the time. When Kaepernick came in, the Packers stayed in their nickel package (maybe it was their dime) when it was well known that Kaepernick was going to be used as a runner, and he gashed a spread-out defense. The other big run was Frank Gore's 23 yard touchdown, which came against a deflated defense after Rodgers's ugly INT. The defensive players still have to make those plays, but it doesn't look like a sign that the defense has some fundamental flaw. Otherwise, it took 30 carries to earn 146 yards (4.8 ypc), which is not good, but isn't a crisis either considering that the Packers seemed to be in their nickel package (only two defensive lineman) for a majority of the game.

The pass defense is the bigger concern, as Alex Smith gashed them for two touchdowns and a 125.6 QB rating (8th best QBR for week 1 as four sacks dragged down his rating). The penalties I mentioned above were part of the problem, and CB Sam Shields looked a little passive on the touchdown pass to WR Michael Crabtree. The big problem seems to be their middle of the field zone, where the inexperience at safety (Morgan Burnett and the combination of M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian) and inside linebacker (4th career start for D.J. Smith). Also, rookie LB Nick Perry lining up against any receiver in the slot is asking for trouble. There's no solution at this point, except to let those young players grow with more experience.

The Packers Have Got It Easy In 2012

I was recently talking with Steve Bortstein on his AM radio show, and one question he brought up was the Green Bay Packers' tough schedule. Their first four games (49ers, Bears, Seahawks, and Saints) are a challenge, but offset by the fact that three of them are at Lambeau (on the road at Seattle).

But, as John Clayton points out, overall the Packers benefit from an easy 2012 schedule because of games against the NFC West (Rams, Cardinals) and AFC West (Colts, Jaguars, Titans). If you add the Vikings to that list, the Packers have a total of four games against the three teams that had the Nos. 1, 2, and 3 selections in the April 2012 draft. There are no gimme wins in the NFL, but that schedule doesn't hurt.

Still, the best advantage the Packers have over the rest of their opponents is an offense that was unmatched last season. The defense remains a concern, and only the coaches know who's starting in the secondary, but the defense will certainly improve. Using their first six draft picks on defensive players gives their unit a boost, but also remember that defenses are inconsistent from year-to-year. No team proved that better than the 2011 Packers, who fell from No. 2 (2010) overall in defense to No. 25 (2011) according to Football Outsiders.

It's going to be a great season, and I'm looking forward to partying like it's February 2011.

The Initial Practice Squad Includes One New (To The Packers) Player

The Green Bay Packers put together their practice squad over the weekend, and it looks as I expected, but I'm a little surprised they brought back Diondre Borel over Tori Gurley (who signed on the Vikings practice squad). Gurley held onto his pass attempts this preseason while Borel dropped a couple, but Borel did a good job as a return man and the ability to play special teams can sometimes make all the difference.

The one new (to the Packers) player signed to the practice squad was OL Chris Scott, who was released by the Steelers. He's a former 5th round pick who played very little in his rookie year and was on the practice squad in 2011. He entered training camp at the bottom of the Steelers' depth chart. He's able to play guard and tackle; playing multiple positions is a trait the Packers like in their backup lineman (see: Barclay, Don).

Scott's addition, plus the return of Greg Van Roten and Andrew Datko to the practice squad, gives the Packers 10 offensive lineman. Mike McCarthy explained that only 7 offensive lineman are active most games, so it doesn't matter how many lineman are on the 53-man roster; he just needs 10 for depth and the scout team. Also, Derek Sherrod will return from the PUP list in a few weeks.

As for the rest of the practice squad. I'm not sure why they need a 5th TE, but Brandon Bostick is back. QB B.J. Coleman has so much to learn that he doesn't belong anywhere but the practice squad, though his big throwing arm is for real. I don't think DE Lawrence Guy has much of a NFL future, but he's eligible for the practice squad while a better player (DT Daniel Muir) isn't. They needed another back (full back or running back) to bring the total to 6, Mike McCarthy usually keeps a combined total of 6 FBs and RBs on the roster, and RB Marc Tyler appeared to be the best of a thin group who didn't make the 53-man roster.

The Packers 53-man Roster

The Green Bay Packers released 18 players, while placing LB Vic So'oto on I.R. (injured on Thursday night) and OL Derek Sherrod on PUP (he could return after week 6), as they trimmed their roster down to 53 players. Some of these released players are likely to return to the practice squad, and some have even been told to wait in town. I'm not really surprised by any of these moves, but there still may be a couple more coming.

The consensus release surprise is WR Tori Gurley, who had a big game against the Chiefs and made Pete Prisco's All-Cut Team. Gurley's a good, young receiver, but his speed his questionable and he only had one strong game this preseason. His biggest problem is that the Packers already have five other receivers who are clearly better than him. That was also a problem for WR Diondre Borel, though he also had a couple passes go through his hands which never wins bonus points with the coaches. I'm surprised WR Jarrett Boykin made the final roster, he looks smaller than his listed 6-2, 218 lbs., but he had a nearly flawless preseason.

Here's a little bit on the other 16 players released:

Offensive line: Shea Allard, Andrew Datko, Tommie Draheim, Sampson Genus, Greg Van Roten, and Reggie Wells. All of those players are eligible for the practice squad, except Wells, and I would expect at least two of them to return when it's announced. Datko probably would have made it on the 53-man roster if he hadn't gotten injured. It's a little surprising that they only kept 7 offensive lineman, but they only kept 8 at the start of last season. I'm not surprised to see that the one young player they did keep was Don Barclay, who's had a solid preseason.

Other offensive players: I hadn't noticed TE Brandon Bostick, though I'd read good things about him from practice. QB B.J. Coleman has got a big arm, but he needs to work on everything else and is no better than a practice squad player. WR Curenski Gilleylen never impressed me, while WR Dale Moss did, but the Packers didn't need a 7th wide receiver in either case. I felt bad for RB Marc Tyler, he usually ran behind an offensive line that had trouble run blocking, but he doesn't seem to be exceptionally skilled either. FB Nic Cooper is a big guy, but after years of keeping multiple full backs on the roster, this is the second consecutive year that only John Kuhn on the roster.

Defensive line: I don't really know what they ever saw in DE Lawrence Guy. The release of DT Daniel Muir was a surprise. He was better than expected this preseason, and the recent injuries to DE Ryan Pickett and DE B.J. Raji appeared to improve his chances. But he didn't bring anything to the field except size and he showed little as a pass rusher. I guess they liked the versatility DE Phillip Merling better, though his roster spot might be short lived once Mike Neal returns from his suspension.

Linebacker: I thought the Packers would have a tough time cutting down from this group, and to use a football term, they decided to punt and keep all 10. After Erik Walden returns from his one game suspension, we might see one of them released.

Secondary: I've been a fan of S Anthony Levine, he played a good centerfield, but he was the weakest of the safeties when it came time to fight off blocks and playing run support. CB Otis Merrill was fast and he could be a weapon on special teams, but he looked like a liability on defense. He's been rumored for the practice squad, so maybe the Packers want to coach him up for a year and see what happens.

While I liked some of the players they released, the reality is that it's unlikely that any of them would have become a starter in the future. Some of the players were a surprise, but the overall construction of the roster is what I expected from the Packers.

Final Preseason Game (Brief) Recap: Packers Defeat Chiefs, 24-3

While it was good to see Graham Harrell establish himself as a legitimate backup quarterback, I didn't really gain a lot of insight as to who will be the final players to make the roster. When a team wins by 21 points, there are usually a lot of players making good plays and only a few making bad ones. Some players struggled such as LB Terrell Manning, S Anthony Levine, CB Brandian Ross, and CB Otis Merrill. While Shea Allard didn't impress as the backup left tackle either. But I wouldn't go so far to say their performances in this game lost them their spots on the team.

Also, for whatever reason, the Chiefs have been a lousy preseason team over the past few years, so they might not be the best measure.

As for Harrell, his improved performance had as much to do with his teammates as it did with him. The lineman did a better job blocking and none of the receivers dropped any passes. Plus, he got an early boost when the coaches left TE Jermichael Finley in with the second team offense, so Finley could make up some of the reps he missed out on when he didn't play against the Bengals. At least we can have some confidence that Harrell's good enough to backup Aaron Rodgers.

The only criticism might be the run defense, which let the Chiefs run all over them, but I think that bug is partly by design in Dom Capers's defense. For example, the Chiefs ran down the field on their first two drives, but eventually had to settle for two field goal attempts and one missed wide right. No opponent is going to match scores with the Packers's offense by driving for field goals, and not making big plays of their own.

The cuts are coming soon, and minor trades are certainly being explored by GM Ted Thompson's staff. There will be a lot more news later today.

Looking At The Packers Dime Defense

Jason Wilde tweeted from practice on Monday about the No. 1 dime defense:

#Packers No. 1 dime defense in no-huddle: Daniels, Worthy, Perry, Smith, Matthews, Woodson, T.Williams, Bush, Shields, Burnett, McMillian.
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) August 27, 2012

Unless something surprising happens in the final preseason game, I would expect this is the defensive rotation for the start of the season. They don't usually line up in the dime package, it was only used 7% of the time in 2011 (they were in the nickel on 63% of their snaps) according to the Football Outsiders 2012 Almanac. If this were the nickel, I'd expect Bush or Shields would be pulled for A.J. Hawk. Otherwise, this is the defense that should be on the field about 70% of the time.

Defensive line. Rookie Mike Daniels was one player I wasn't sure about coming into the season. He was great as a senior, but he's a little short (6-0) and was coming off a shoulder injury. After a strong camp and preseason, he's emerged as their No. 3 defensive line pass rusher (apparently B.J. Raji was being given a break during practice). Worthy hasn't been outstanding this preseason, but it's clear he'll be playing a lot. Ryan Pickett and C.J. Wilson will be starters in the base 3-4 defense. That leaves Daniel Muir as the backup NT, and probably room for another defensive lineman. Maybe Lawrence Guy can make the practice squad.

Linebackers. Smith has taken over for the injured Desmond Bishop, though I'm surprised that he's playing ahead of Hawk in the dime package. Maybe that won't be the case in the regular season. As for the backups, I wouldn't really be surprised by any combination to make the squad, except Dezman Moses should be a lock.

Defensive backs. I didn't think Jerron McMillian would make the jump from Maine to nickel safety as a rookie, but it looks like he's in line for some significant playing time to start the season. If Davon House were healthy, he'd probably be on the field during this drill. Shields is probably the fifth CB, but after a shaky start to the preseason, he's moved back ahead of the even more shaky trio of Hayward, Merrill, and Ross. Shields made a great jump on an INT against the Bengals' No. 3 QB, but was beaten on a couple other occasions. It looks like Hayward will be in a reserve role to start the season and I hope Ross winds up back on the practice squad. I've thought Merrill has been awful on defense and special teams, though he's received praise for being so fast. I'm not sure what combination of backup safeties (Levine, Jennings, and Richardson) will make the team; they've all had a lot of playing time without any one of them standing out.

The Emergence Of Dezman Moses

The Green Bay Packers find promising undrafted talent every year, and they've done a good job of finding free talent at outside linebacker (Erik Walden, Frank Zombo, Vic So'oto). Unfortunately, after promising starts from them, they've each fallen back on the depth chart.

This year's surprising undrafted talent is former Tulane DE Dezman Moses. Just like the previous three players, Moses is a former college DE making the switch to outside linebacker. But plays like the one below hint that he may have more athleticism than any of them.
He had 9.5 sacks in 2011, and 15.5 over the last two seasons at Tulane. That school was a mess last season as they fired their head coach in October. As an undersized (for the NFL) defensive end who played for a bad team, I'm not surprised he went undrafted. He probably drew little attention from scouts.

With the Packers, he's been noticed since the summer OTA practices began. While he's not been a real threat to challenge LB Nick Perry for the starting job, he has played a lot with the first team defense. But I hadn't really seen anything exceptional from him during the preseason; until the game against the Bengals.

His stats during don't jump out (4 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, 1 pass defense, and 1 QB hit), but each of those single stats were an exceptional play on it's own, and he looked like the second team defender that the Bengals had to pay attention to. His pass defense was almost a gem, when he ran at the quarterback on a naked bootleg, tipped the pass up in the air, and almost had an interception off the jump ball. He really stood out and looked like the player I had been reading about all summer.

But can he keep it up? That is the question, and I don't have an answer to it either. It depends on his health, his opportunities, and his continued development.

Packers Down To 75 Players: Jarius Wynn Released

The Green Bay Packers announced 10 roster moves to shrink down to 75 players by today's deadline. Most of the transactions involved injured players and only one healthy player was released.

DE Jarius Wynn. This isn't the first time he's been released by the Packers, so it's not a big surprise. He was re-signed during the great injury rush of 2010, after Justin Harrell's annual season-ending injury. He's also one of the few players I've actually interviewed, so I'm disappointed to see that he's gone, but his play on the field didn't earn him a roster spot. He had a strong couple months down the stretch in 2010, and he was useful during their playoff run to the Super Bowl, but he was a non-factor last season after recording 3 sacks in their first three games. He was involved in a couple plays last week against the Bengals, but he was clearly behind other players like Philip Merling. The Packers might have to release three defensive lineman by the end of the week, so the final game will be very important for Merling, Lawrence Guy, and Mike Neal.

FB Jon Hoese was released, but he's also been out with a hamstring injury, so it's a release related to an injury. The former undrafted free agent was released last season too, and then brought back onto the practice squad late in the year, so we might see him again.

TE Andrew Quarless and LB Frank Zombo have been hurting all training camp, but they both have a chance to return after six weeks on the PUP list. I'm a little surprised OL Derek Sherrod wasn't listed here too, which may be a sign that he'll be ready to play soon.

It's too bad to see LB Desmond Bishop's season end before it began, but his hamstring injury was serious and he'll be out for the season on I.R. A few other players were also placed on I.R. (RB Du'ane Bennett, TE DeMarco Cosby, G Ray Dominguez, DE Johnny Jones, and WR Shaky Smithson) but I wouldn't have expected any of them to make the roster if they had been healthy. Rob Demovsky expects those last five players will "receive settlements and be waived."

There are a few other players that I expected to be released (OL Shea Allard, OL Greg Van Roten, and WR Diondre Borel all stood out in a bad way against the Bengals) but they still need players for the final preseason game against the Chiefs. The starters aren't likely to play, and Aaron Rodgers might not play at all. The front office might have a good idea of their final roster, but some guys will get at least one more chance to make a good impression.

Packers Release Five: Led By Anthony Hargrove

Here's the report from Packers.com on the five players they released on Friday, as they work on trimming the roster to 75 players by Monday, and they still have 10 more players to go. As for the first five, it included a couple of better known players but really no surprises.

WR Andy Brewer. He was recently claimed off waivers from the Eagles, and with a deep group of receivers already on the roster, he was the longest of long shots. No surprise here.

DE Anthony Hargrove. A lot was written about the troubled free agent and his ongoing battle over bounties with the commissioner's office. Instead, his release comes earlier than expected, but it shouldn't be a surprise because he never played with the first team defense this preseason. He was a poor fit from the start because he was an undersized 3-4 defensive end. He really had to standout to earn a roster spot, and it never happened.

S Micah Pellerin and CB Dion Turner. A couple of undrafted free agents who played little during the preseason. Again, it's no surprise that they've been released.

T Herb Taylor. The season ending injury to Derek Sherrod led to his signing last December. Sherrod's continued absence, and an injury to Marshall Newhouse, briefly led to Taylor becoming the starting left tackle for the preseason opener. His fate was probably sealed the moment he allowed a big hit on Aaron Rodgers. He wasn't good as a run or pass blocker, and only a show of supreme optimism could have kept him on the roster any longer.

Packers Win A Preseason Game Over The Bengals, 27-13

The second half wasn't pretty for the backups, but that's for a later post. The starters are what's most important, and while there were some concerns, it overall looked like a good warm up for the regular season.

Aaron Rodgers. While he was under center, the offense had possession six times and scored on three drives, which is a pretty good success ratio. Rodgers was doing a bit more running than anyone wants, but he wasn't taking any chances. The Bengals defensive line was over-rushing and finding themselves blocked out of the play, while their secondary was chasing the deep receivers, so Rodgers had a lot of green in front of him.

The big concern was his accuracy. The interception was either a terrible pass or a bad route by the receiver, but he had a few other bad passes too. His accuracy is usually flawless, so showing a few flaws doesn't even make him an average quarterback, but it was unlike him.

Greg Jennings is back from his concussion, and he already looks in mid-season form. That alone was great news.

Cedric Benson had a solid debut, and it looks like he'll be a good addition. His strength is his strength; on a couple delayed hand-offs, he fought through arm tackles to pick up some extra yards. While the first team offense was on the field, Benson played about half the time, splitting the duties with Alex Green, and that might be what to expect if James Starks can't return for the season opener.

The worst QB rating of the game went to Bengals' QB Andy Dalton, which is a great sign for the Packers' defense. They only recorded 2 sacks and 7 QB pressures for the game, but Dalton was constantly harassed as they generated pressure against a good offensive line. Rookies Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy, and Mike Daniels were often involved in the pursuit, and they all seem likely to play key roles this season. The defense did blitz more in this one than the previous two preseason games. CB Tramon Willams did a great job against Bengals star WR A.J. Green, but the other cornerback position seems unsettled as neither Jarrett Bush or Sam Shields played great. Shields was almost beaten badly on a long pass downfield, but Dalton overthrew Green. Still, having Williams back to 100% after a shoulder injury took away his bump-and-run effectiveness last season is a huge boost.

It wasn't pretty, but the preseason is about shaking off the rust. The first team offense and defense outplayed a 2011 playoff team, and while they still have some room for improvement, they look ready for the regular season.

Preseason Preview: Packers at Bengals

I have to admit, I'm getting bored of the preseason. I want to see the starters on the field and watch the Packers get a win that matters. I want to see the 2011 Green Bay Packers offense, and not the one that lost to the Giants. Only a couple more weeks to go.

In the meantime, there's a preseason game against the Bengals tonight, and there are still a couple questions to sort out on defense.

Who's going to be the nickel safety? I think these final two preseason games will make that decision for us.

Who's going to be the starting cornerback? It looks like it should be Davon House, if his shoulder is healed, or Jarrett Bush if it's not. But the Packers could surprise us, and in the meantime, we'll probably see a lot of Casey Hayward.

What role will Nick Perry play? His pass rushing skills are already the second best on the team, but we haven't seen much of him as a run defender. In pass protection, he looked lost in coverage on one long completion by the Browns. He's the starter, but he might be in a heavy rotation by the start of the regular season if he doesn't improve the rest of his game.

On offense, it's all about getting healthy and giving some more reps to Graham Harrell. The offensive line is back to full health, and once Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley return to the field, the offense will be playing like it's 2011.

The Halfway Point Of The 2012 (Pre)Season

Can I write a mid-preseason review of the Green Bay Packers after only two games? Apparently I am.

Overall, 0-2 record is obviously bad. They're trying to win, but it's clearly not their top priority. It falls somewhere behind rotating every player into the game and keeping the starters healthy. Mike McCarthy seems to be calling only his most basic routes, and letting his receivers and quarterbacks react to the defense. During past preseasons, I've read that Dom Capers leaves the defense in their base formation and lets them go, which appears to be the case again this season.

On offense, I think all the problems start at offensive tackle. Graham Harrell (and his receivers) have made some mistakes, but backup tackles Andrew Datko and Herb Taylor have struggled. Datko has shown some promise as a pass blocker, but he's been beaten when bull rushed and Taylor almost got Aaron Rodgers killed. Their run blocking appears to be a weakness too, which explains why the ground game (and Marc Tyler in particular) hasn't gone anywhere.

On defense, I've seen a lot of athletic guys running hard, but I haven't seen anyone in particular stand out. While I feel like the offensive roster is largely determined, the Packers will probably have a tough time sorting out the defensive side. None of the backup players look like a slam dunk, but nearly every one of them has shown some promise. The nickel safety position is a good example: which one of M.D. Jennings, Jerron McMillian or Anthony Levine has played the best? They've each looked a little different when on the field, each player seems to have his own strength, but it's not obvious which one is better. Maybe they'd be about the same over a 16 game regular season.

Fantasy Football 2012 Openings

I'm acting as the commish of a Yahoo! Fantasy Football League. If anyone is interested in joining, send me an email at acmepackingcompany at gmail dot com, and I'll send you an invite.

Though you'll have to watch the Yahoo! default rankings closely. Aaron Rodgers is only ranked No. 6 overall (No. 1 QB), one spot behind WR Calvin Johnson, which I can somewhat understand because Johnson's clearly the No. 1 fantasy WR. Fitzgerald's No. 2, but the QB drop-off from Stafford to Kolb/Skelton is huge.

But Yahoo! has Ryan Mathews at No. 4? Sure, he's talented, playing on a strong offense in a conference full of weak defenses, but even the Onion is mocking his injury prone ways.

In Defense of Graham Harrell

Hey, it could be worse.

Ground Emerges As Tim Tebow's Favorite Target onion.com/SueCB3
— Onion Sports Network (@OnionSports) August 17, 2012

Seriously, after re-watching the preseason game against the Browns, I'm going to stick up for Graham Harrell. I'd rather have him as the backup over Colt McCoy or Tarvaris Jackson. Harrell made some poor throws and he'd be an average replacement starter, at best, but he was let down by his teammates on his turnovers:

The second quarter INT that was returned for a touchdown, overturned by a penalty. Maybe the pass was a little off target, but it still hit TE Tom Crabtree in the hands, who tipped it up in the air for a gift INT to a nearby Browns defender.

The end of the second quarter Hail Mary. It wasn't the best attempt, but that's a pass you expect to be intercepted. When Football Outsiders ranks quarterbacks, it removes Hail Mary INTs from their definition of a turnover because it really isn't one.

The third quarter INT that was returned for a touchdown. I had been hoping to see some good things from TE Ryan Taylor this preseason, but he was held out against the Chargers due to a previous concussion. He returned against the Browns, but he tripped over his own feet on a crossing route and the Browns defender made a diving INT at the spot where Taylor should have been standing. If Taylor doesn't fall on his face, there's no chance that this pass is intercepted.

The fourth quarter intentional grounding in the end zone for a safety. It's been a mixed bag among the backups on the offensive line. Rookie Andrew Datko did a fine job in pass protection and the players at guard looked good, but on this play, the Browns' DE ran a stunt over center that neither the left guard nor center Evan Dietrich-Smith picked up, and the defender ran untouched right up the middle. That looked like Dietrich-Smith's responsibility, and Harrell had no chance.

On three bad plays (excluding the Hail Mary pass), Harrell was let down when a teammate made a bad play. His stats wouldn't have been great even if his teammates had helped him out, but it wouldn't have been a disaster either.

As a final note, if there was ever a competition between Harrell and rookie B.J. Coleman, it ended when Coleman's only attempt against the Browns was a pass he should have never thrown against even a college subdivision team. It looked like the receiver ran a different route, probably in response to the double-team he was facing, and Coleman failed to read the defense. The silver lining is that Coleman should have no problem passing through waivers, and they can stash him on the practice squad. The new question is whether they should keep Coleman under any circumstances.

As a final, final note, I liked what I saw from Datko against the Browns. He's a natural left tackle who's got great size and seems to move his feet well, but he was beaten against the Chargers when bull-rushed and he got no push when asked to run block against the Browns. If you're wondering why the Packers haven't ran the ball well this preseason, it's because their two tackles (Datko and Herb Taylor) can't get any push off the line. It looks like the shoulder Datko injured in college is still holding him back, and he might not be anything more than an emergency option until it's fully healed, but he could be very good by next season.

Two Key Young Players: Alex Green and Jerel Worthy

GM Ted Thompson and his staff have made few personnel mistakes, but the decision to let DE Cullen Jenkins leave in free agency has left it's mark on the pass rush. I'm not expecting anything from their Plan A, Mike Neal, but I'm watching Plan B, 2nd round DE Jerel Worthy, closely. There hasn't been much to watch so far.

The analysis at NFL.com from an anonymous scout was pretty spot: he's average, at best. That's similar to what PackApologist wrote a couple weeks ago; he's looked okay in camp but on at least one night, he made some noise. It's still early, but I'd be disappointed if Worthy didn't show something this preseason. The good news is that I've been impressed with Nick Perry so far; he might not be a future All-Pro, and he looked lost in coverage on one play against the Browns, but he'll be a strong pass rusher.

RB Alex Green hasn't been able to show much, the trainers are limiting his plays from scrimmage while he rehabs his knee, but I liked what I saw from him against the Browns. He almost broke one run off left tackle, an arm tripped him up before he was able to make a move in the second level, but he showed a potential explosive burst that looked like Ahman Green in his prime.

Packers Lose Ugly In The Preseason To The Browns, 35-10

The good news is that the starters played well, with a couple exceptions. On the Packers's second offensive drive, WR Randall Cobb had the ball stripped and I expect he'll see more ball drills in his near future. Later in the second half, Aaron Rodgers failed to convert a 4th down play, on their side of the field, that the Packers would have never attempted during the regular season. Both plays gave the Browns great field position and led to two scores.

On defense, the Packers forced a fumble on the Browns' first drive. Though the defense held the Browns to only 39 yards on their next two drives combined, the Browns had great field position and kicked two field goals. Rookies Casey Hayward and Nick Perry had some struggles in pass coverage that set up the Browns's first touchdown, but overall the first team defense did a good job tackling and putting pressure on rookie QB Brandon Weeden.

So how bad was Graham Harrell? Pretty bad. Not Brian Brohm bad, but he'll have to show something over the remaining preseason games. Right now, I'm not a believer in him, but I don't think they'll make a trade or free agent signing at this point for the 2012 season.

And I'm starting to become a Jarrett Boykin fan. He made some nice grabs (5 for 63 yards).

Packers Preseason Preview: Browns at Packers

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 4-12 season and looking for a lot of improvement throughout the roster, but their main focus will be the development of Brandon Weeden. They won't get any better until Weeden is ready to start, and he'll need quality reps during the preseason to make that happen. His first start against the Lions wasn't too encouraging.

For the Packers, maybe it's best if they focus on staying healthy. There's only a couple starting jobs on defense to be determined so long as WR Greg Jennings, TE Jermichael Finley, and RB James Starks are ready for the start of the regular season. Charles Woodson is moving to his new safety position, but I'm not worried about a veteran like him.

It's not a make-or-break game, but with CBs Davon House and Sam Shields out, this is a great time for rookie Casey Hayward to show what he can do. He'll still split time with Jarrett Bush, but the coaches know Bush well, and one preseason game is unlikely to change their minds. House looked pretty good against the Chargers last week, and while Hayward wasn't bad, he'll have to play better to move ahead of House. Right now, I still expect Bush will be the starting cornerback.

It probably doesn't matter who's named the starter at defensive end because the lineman are expected to rotate so frequently. Though he made little impact in 2011, it looks like C.J. Wilson is technically ahead of rookie Jerel Worthy, but Worthy seems to be the lineman of choice alongside B.J. Raji in their nickel package. Philip Merling was very active during their first preseason game against Chargers, and he looks like the next lineman on the depth chart.