McCarthy "not sure" if Rodgers can play next week

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is "not sure" if injured QB Aaron Rodgers can play next week. Obviously, this news is extremely frustrating to us Packers fans. For weeks, we've relied on the fact that Rodgers'll return against Atlanta, and now we hear this. This is absolutely heartbreaking. #12 has got to play next week. 

As you know, the Pack are not a professional team when Rodgers doesn't play. So, why should we pick them to beat the Falcons now? Basically, their season rests on Rodgers shoulders. If he doesn't play, they're guaranteed to lose. It's as simple as that. 

Reaction: Packers get blown out by Lions, 40-10

I gotta say, yesterday's game was fun to watch. Not because it was competitive, but because it showed us all just how terrible these Packers really are. All day, they struggled with basic things like tackling, blocking, and caring. They're offense never did anything, while they're defense struggled to just stay with their receivers. Basically, the game was a comedy. The Packers, again, did not look the slightest bit professional. But am I mad? Of course not. I knew they would lose this one, so I'm still very confident in my prediction that they'll win the division. Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzein are terrible, while Aaron Rodgers is amazing. When Rodgers returns next week, we'll see a different team. I guarantee it. 

Be Thankful If You Didn't Watch The Packers Lose 40-10

And the game wasn't even as close as the score indicated. The Lions repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers, a missed chip-shot field goal, and two kickoffs out of bounds. The Packers responded with 126 yards of total offense on 42 plays.

Guard T.J. Lang: "Probably the worst (expletive) offensive day in the history of the (expletive) #Packers."
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) November 28, 2013

I wasn't expecting much from the defense and they got ran over for 241 yards on the ground. QB Matthew Stafford had one of the quietest 330 yard games I can remember; it didn't matter that he piled up the yards because the defense wasn't going to do to stop them one way or another. It was like they were playing without any linebackers; once the Lions got past the line of scrimmage they always had room to run. Also NT Ryan Pickett looks done and I'm not sure CB Davon House could have been less impressive. But they did force four turnovers and scored the Packers' only touchdown of the game, so at least they were better than the offense.

It was an epic offensive performance of staggering incompetence in every way. Having said that, this was a Top 5 offense with QB Aaron Rodgers and it will return to that level of play shortly after his return. This was only one game. But it will probably be the last time you ever seen OL Marshall Newhouse, who was benched after he gave a little wave to DT Ndamukong Suh while he was on his way to sack QB Matt Flynn for a safety.

As for Flynn: he showed every Packer fan why the Raiders cut him. He doesn't adjust when the rest of the offense is struggling. FOX had a shot of QB Aaron Rodgers throwing the playbook to the ground, and it looked like he threw it pre-snap, as if Flynn failed to adjust to the defense. I'm not sure he ever called an audible, which might have been due to the fact that he's only been back with the team for a couple weeks. He also seemed to focus on one receiver and never looked for his second option, most notably on a pass he threw into tight coverage on WR Jordy Nelson while TE Andrew Quarless was running wide open a few feet to his right. Maybe he just wanted QB Scott Tolzien to have another chance. And he had this bad game against a secondary that's been awful this season. Adjusting for opponent, this might have been the worst game for any quarterback this season.

I wasn't expecting them to win this game so it doesn't really matter how badly they lost it. It's just one loss in the loss column. With the defense in shambles, it didn't look like they would have made much of a run this season even if Rodgers had stayed healthy. I'm just looking forward to Rodgers's return, and their next win, before thinking about an unlikely playoff run or what they can do to fix the team next season.

Thanksgiving Preview: Packers at Lions

A few weeks ago, the month of November looked like a favorable schedule, but now the Green Bay Packers might go the entire month (5 games) without a win. The defense is a disappointment but the obvious problem has been that the Packers will be starting their fourth different quarterback in their last five games.

McCarthy-Matt Flynn will be the starter. He's taken all the starter's reps this week. #Packers
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 27, 2013

Tolzien has shown some promise but Mike McCarthy can't wait for him to figure it out while their playoff chances slip away. Based on their last game, it's a no-brainer that Flynn should be starting. Vince Verhei wrote earlier this week "that Matt Flynn needs to be in Green Bay, and Green Bay, at least now, needs Matt Flynn."

And if the Packers beat the Lions, it will be because of him. While I'm a fan of RB Eddie Lacy, the Lions have the 2nd best run defense according to Football Outsiders. Last week, RB Bobby Rainey, who started a fantasy stampede after rushing for 163 yards against the Falcons on November 17th, was held by the Lions to 35 yards on 18 carries. Lacy can be the offensive focal point against a terrible run defense like the Bears, but he's not going to be a big factor against the Lions.

The good news is that the Lions' pass defense is ranked just slightly ahead of the awful Vikings, and Flynn did well against them last week. Now he's taken all the starter's reps (see tweet above) and will have the advantage of playing inside. The Buccaneers burned the Lions deep on a couple of play action passes and that's something the Packers will have to exploit too.

However, QB Matthew Stafford is having a very good season. He fell apart last week with 4 INTs but he's only got 12 for the entire season. Also, WR Nate Burleson returned last week, and Stafford could find himself on pace for another 5000+ yards and 40+ touchdown season. The only thing that slowed him down in 2011, the last time these two teams played on Thanksgiving, was that he threw 3 INTs. However, the 2013 Packers defense has only recorded 4 INTs in their first 11 games, so they'd be lucky to pick him off even once.

Unless Flynn has a repeat of his game against the Lions back on January 1, 2012, when he threw for 480 yards and 6 TDs against them at Lambeau, I don't see how the Packers are going to keep up in a shootout. The Lions are probably going to score over 30 points and the Packers haven't scored over 30 points since QB Aaron Rodgers broke his collerbone. The upset is possible, but Flynn and the Packers' defense would have to play their best games of the season to make it happen.

Matt Flynn to start today

Well, I guess Mike McCarthy has finally realized what all already know: Matt Flynn is better than Scott Tolzein. 

Yep, the title says it. Matt Flynn, after rallying the Packers to a tie last week, has been named the starter for the Pack's game this afternoon in Detroit. If you disagree with this decision, you must be completely delusional about the NFL. Flynn was good last week while Tolzein has been terrible since he first stepped onto the field. The only reason anybody liked him, at least in my opinion, was because he was a third-stringer. Had Seneca Wallace put up the same numbers, he'd be hated, not praised. So yea Tolzein-lovers, it's over. The Packers have finally woken up and decided that they want to win. 

Packers listed as 6 point underdogs for tomorrow's Lions game

Earlier this week, Vegas released their NFL Week 12 Odds, with our Green Bay Packers being listed as 6 point underdogs for their game tomorrow in Detroit. To me, this prediction seems about right. I think Flynn will have a solid performance, but in end I see the Lions scoring more points. 

As I said yesterday, I don't think the result of this contest will matter in the long run. Because after this game, Rodgers'll return and the Packers will have a pretty easy schedule. Now I'll still watch it, but I definitely won't be upset if it ends up being lost. 

McCarthy: "Slim To None" Chance Rodgers Plays on Thanksgiving

While Mike McCarthy almost completely shut the door on the possibility of QB Aaron Rodgers playing this Thanksgiving against the Lions, he did return to practice on Tuesday but not with the first team offense:

He's back.... #Packers pic.twitter.com/N8msjT7qHU
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) November 26, 2013

It looks like both QB Matt Flynn and QB Scott Tolzien are going to prepare to start. I can understand the strategy in not tipping their hand about which one will actually start, but are the Lions really going to make a big change if it's Flynn instead of Tolzien? I guess they wouldn't have to worry about Tolzien putting a spin move on a defensive lineman if the less-mobile Flynn is starting.

Why the Packers will probably win the NFC North

Let's face it, right now the NFC North is the worst division in the NFL. All four teams in it currently look pathetic, while three of them seem to have no chance of improving. However, the one that does, the Packers, seem to still have a shot at a legit playoff run. Here's why:

First off, we can write off the Vikings, can't we? They're 2-8-1, so they're not going anywhere. Right?

Anyway, the Bears and Lions, who are each 6-5, completely suck right now. Both of them are coming off embarrassing losses to less-than-okay teams, while each of them seem to have somewhat hard schedules coming up. Here are those schedules:

Lions:

vs Packers

@ Eagles

vs Ravens

vs Giants

@ Vikings

Bears:

@ Vikings

vs Cowboys

@ Browns

@ Eagles

vs Packers

Now let me ask you guys something. Looking at those schedules, do you believe that each of those teams will lose at least 2 of those games? The Lions defintely will, as they have to face three hot teams in the Ravens, Giants, and Eagles while also playing two losable games against the Packers and Vikings. And the Bears probably will too, as they are simply not good enough to win in Dallas or beat an Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team. Keep in mind, they lost to the Rams this week, so I think that the Browns game could also tick them off easily. 

So, if both of those teams lose at least twice, they'll each finish at 9-7, which is solid, but not great.

Now the Packers. Our beloved Packers will certainly lose this Thursday in Detroit. Earlier today, McCarthy said that Rodgers won't play, meaning we'll be stuck with Flynn for another week. So yea, let's assume for a second that after this week the Pack are 5-6-1. From that point on, with Aaron Rodgers, here are the teams they'll play. 

vs Falcons

@ Cowboys

vs Steelers

@ Bears

Now do you really think the Pack will lose any of those games? Sure the Bears and Cowboys may be a little tough, but they certainly won't lose to them, not with Rodgers. So, if they win all four of those contests, they'll end up at 9-6-1, better than the other two teams. So there you go, as long as all goes to plan, the Packers will win the NFC North. I'm 99% sure of it. 

Two Bears Fans Walked Into A Bar

And they did not make good decisions after they left it.

While it's schadenfreude to laugh at the pain felt by Bears fans, I'll take what I can get as the Green Bay Packers struggle. These two guys also pretty much sum up the pathetic NFC North race; the team that doesn't run head first into an immovable object will probably win the division.
 
h/t Deadspin

Reaction: Packers, Vikings Tie

Well, yesterday's game was a first. I've never seen the Packers tie before, and honestly I wish I hadn't. Because in yesterday's overtime, the Pack were sad to watch. They drove down field, got inside the 10, and then completely gave up. Instead of drawing up a legit play to win the game, all Green Bay elected to do was have Eddie Lacy run it. As you know, that didn't work. Then after they embarrassingly settled for a 20-yard field goal, they played no defense whatsoever and, thanks to two huge mistakes by the Vikings (Adrian Peterson running into his own guy and tripping and Cordarrelle Patterson dropping a tipped passes that hit him right in the chest), were able to hold Minnesota to a field goal. From then on, their offensive line never blocked, their play-callers never called good plays, and their offense managed the clock terribly. So, while a tie is better than a loss, this game was bad. Don't be happy about it not being lost. 

Packers and Vikings Play To A 26-26 Tie

Actually it's a ironic outcome that two very evenly matched teams played to a tie. Both feature bad defenses and offenses hamstrung by backup quarterbacks. Technically QB Christian Ponder isn't a backup, he's the starter since there's no one better on their roster, but he's effectively backup quality (both QB Scott Tolzien and Ponder entered Sunday's game with a negative DVOA ranking according to Football Outsiders).

And that's how the game played out. Both defenses were mediocre (Packers allowed 28 first downs, while the Vikings allowed 30). Ponder had a solid passing day (21 of 30 for 233 yards and 1 TD) but he took six sacks. However the big story was that QB Matt Flynn took over for Tolzien.

It may have turned out Flynn isn't good enough to be a starter in this league, but the dude is better than Scott Tolzien. #FOAud
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) November 24, 2013

I guess this shouldn't be a big surprise, but I was leaning towards the guy who was only released once this year (Tolzien) over the guy who'd been released twice (Flynn). Tolzien's big problem was his inability to sustaining drives. The Packers went three-and-out on four of his seven possessions, including the opening drive of the second half. The Packers' defense was struggling (three of the Vikings' six first-half drives went for points) and Mike McCarthy had to do something. Flynn got the ball moving.

It's unknown what this means for next week. Plan A would be Rodgers would start, but he might not be ready and McCarthy wouldn't commit to Flynn or Tolzien after the game.

It's been a depressing last four weeks for the Green Bay Packers, the worst stretch of games they've had since late 2008 (their last losing season), but they're still in the playoff race because the rest of the NFC North is determined to suck. The Lions somehow lost to the Buccaneers in Detroit, and the Bears were easily beat by the Rams in St. Louis. However, their chances turn poor if they can't beat the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers will probably need their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Lions because the Lions don't have the toughest schedule to finish the season (at Eagles, vs. Ravens, vs. Giants, at Vikings).

The Bears are sitting at 6-5, just like the Lions, but Rodgers will be back before the Packers play the Bears in Chicago. The Bears aren't going to win out, they might even lose to the Vikings next Sunday before they face the Cowboys and Eagles in upcoming weeks. With Rodgers back, the Packers will have a much better chance of winning in Chicago and hopefully that win will be enough to move them ahead of the Bears.

Packers place CB Casey Hayward on IR

Well, the Packers injury problems just seem to get worse every day. As today, it was announced that CB Casey Hayward, who has really struggled this year, has been placed on the IR, ending his season. As I just said, Hayward has struggled this year, but still, he's a starter. I'd rather he be healthy. 

Hopefully, Hayward's backup will fill in nicely. I don't know who that is, but he better be good. The Pack's defense is terrible right now, so they need to start getting some production from it. I don't care how, they just to need to start giving up less points. 

Shields questionable for tomorrow's game

Yesterday, the Green Bay Packers Official Blog reported that Packers CB Sam Shields, who did not play last week, is listed as questionable to play in the team's home game tomorrow against the Vikings. Shields has just 40 tackles and 1 interception so far this season. 

While I like Shields, him playing in this one won't matter. This year, he hasn't been that productive, so the Pack can definitely win without him. Really, he might as well take the game off. They're playing the Vikings, not an actual opponent. Now I don't mean to put down Minnesota when I say that, but you get it. They're not that good. 

Green Bay baby born with broken collarbone named "Aaron Rodger" after Packers QB

Here's kind of a weird story for you as apparently, parents of a Green Bay baby born with a broken collarbone have named the boy "Aaron Rodger Dryer" after the injured Packers QB. Aaron Rodgers, as you know, has missed the Pack's last two games with a broken collarbone, so the name fits. 

While I get that some people are huge sports fans, this just seems strange to me. The kid's gonna be 80 some day, so should he really be named after a football player from today who is only going to have a broken collarbone for a short amount of time? In my opinion, this was just too-fanish, if that's a word. But, since it is their child, they have the right to name it whatever they want. Even if the name is a little different. 

Mike Daniels Deserves His Own Post

With the exception of CB Tramon Williams, I've been negative about the Green Bay Packers' defense every time I've written about them over the past three weeks. But another defender who deserves a mention for his solid play while the rest of the defense struggles is DE Mike Daniels.

2013 1st round pick DE Datone Jones hasn't yet emerged as a consistent inside pass rusher, but Daniels has developed into a player who's consistently after the quarterback. I was concerned when they drafted him back in 2012 that he's a little too short (he isn't a threat to knock down a pass attempt) and he was injury prone in college. He still isn't batting down passes (zero pass defenses in 2013) but he's stayed healthy and he's as good as rushing the passer in the NFL as he was in college (9.5 sacks in his senior season).

Top interior rushers W11: McCoy, Watt, Dareus, Kyle Williams, Fairley, Mike Daniels, Casey, Cofield, Odrick http://t.co/CJl2s8Rblx
— Greg A. Bedard (@GregABedard) November 21, 2013

After Week 8, Greg Bedard published a quote from DC Dom Capers how Daniels is using power and leverage to gain an advantage on most offensive lineman. He isn't the type of lineman that will use a spin move or speed on the edge to get into the backfield; he's usually just beating them with a bull rush. In that regard, he's a little different than other interior lineman who've played for the Packers. DE Cullen Jenkins had a variety of moves while DT Santana Dotson used his 6-5 frame to his advantage. Daniels might be using his short height to his advantage; his 6-0 frame gives him better leverage against taller offensive lineman. And that big Week 8 game he had came against the Vikings in Minnesota, so he might have success against them again in this weekend's rematch.

As of Week 11, he's ranked as the seventh best interior rusher in Bedard's Pressure Points column with 4.5 sacks, 16 hurries and 5 hits on the season. While the defense has struggled, at least the team has appeared to have found someone who consistently provide an interior pass rush for the first time since 2010.

Packers listed as 4.5 point favorites for this weekend's Vikings game

Earlier this week, Vegas released their NFL Week 12 odds, with our Green Bay Packers being listed as 4.5 point favorites for their upcoming home game against the 2-8 Vikings. This prediction isn't surprising to me and really shouldn't be to you, since, whether Rodgers plays or not, the Pack are just a much better team than Minnesota in every way. 

While I don't think this contest will be a blowout, I will say that I think Green Bay has a 99% chance of winning it.  The Vikings are simply too bad of a team to win at Lambeau. 

Two Areas To Improve On Before Facing The Vikings

QB Scott Tolzien's game against the Giants was "one of the better zero-touchdown, three-interception games you'll ever see" according to Football Outsiders.

I'm sure before the season, Packers fans thought it would be all about the Tolzien-Boykin connection. #FOAud
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) November 10, 2013

It's obvious that going from QB Aaron Rodgers to Tolzien has been a step-down. While I'm not trying to ignore that fact, I'm focused on the defense which (with the notable exception of CB Tramon Williams) has taken a step back over their last three games.

The pass defense has been a mess all season long, but now the previously stout run defense has fallen apart. I don't know who leaked the supposed terms of DE B.J. Raji's contract extension, but I did find the timing curious because it came right after RB Brandon Jacobs described how easy it was to run against them. If Raji's going to find a big free agent contract next year, it will be based on his ability as a run defender. The team might be sending him a message that if he thinks he's really an $8 million a year player, he better start showing it on the field.

Before Rodgers returns, they need to win a game or two to keep up in the NFC North playoff chase and Tolzien has to get better. I'm not so much worried that he's not finding the end zone but he can't keep throwing one dumb INT per game. While the Giants don't have an elite pass defense, he'll likely be better at Lambeau against an inferior Vikings pass defense (No. 28 according to Football Outsiders). But the defense has to get better too. If nothing else, their run defense (which was ranked No. 8 overall during Week 8 but has fallen all the way down to No. 21 by Week 11) has to improve. I'm not hoping for anything more from the pass defense by this point in the season.

Rodgers: Injury no longer an issue of pain, but of risk

In an article published recently by Bleacher Report, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers told reporters that pain affiliated with his current collarbone injury is no longer his biggest problem, but that risk of getting hit too hard is.

"I think the biggest issue is not the pain at this point," Rodgers said. "It is the risk of taking a shot like that and what it would do if [the collarbone] displaced. Obviously, I'd be out for the season and worried about any type of complications going forward."

He's right about that, but I must say if he's not quite 100% by Thanksgiving he still should play. The Packers simply can't win that game or any other one without him.

Could Sunday's loss end up being the Packers' last one of the regular season?

First off, nobody will deny that Sunday's loss to the Giants was terrible. Going into it, I didn't expect the Packers to win, but they did more than just lose. They didn't compete. Their defense was terrible all game while Tolzein threw a whole, 3 interceptions. You simply can't win playing that way. But, on the bright side, an easy schedule's coming up. And, if all goes well, the Pack could easily be 11-5 come January. 

Who who will they have to beat in order to get to that record? Just the Vikings (at Lambeau, but with Tolzein), the Lions (with or without Rodgers), the Falcons (Rodgers'll definitely be back by this game), the Cowboys (who are very overrated), the Steelers (who are good, but not good enough to win in Green Bay), and the Bears (in Chicago, but since the Packers only fell to them by 7 when they didn't have Rodgers, God only knows what'll happen when #12 does play). So, looking at it that way, I see there being a 75% chance the Pack will win out from this point on. I won't guarantee it, but it's definitely gotta shot. 

Recap: Packers Outplayed By Giants, 27-13

If there's one thing to be learned from Sunday's loss to the Giants is that QB Scott Tolzien will be the first QB in four weeks to start consecutive games for the Green Bay Packers:

McCarthy-Scott Tolzien will start for us this week. #Packers
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 18, 2013

Mike McCarthy never had a QB complete every big shot he took down the field until Tolzien. He went 4 for 4 with 151 yards on his deep pass attempts. Even with the 3 INTs, his QBR of 29.6 was about what should be expected from a backup QB. He's a big improvement on the little they've gotten in recent seasons from QB Graham Harrell and QB Seneca Wallace.

I'm not going to defend every INT, but if there's one thing he and Mike McCarthy should have learned by now is that Tolzien isn't a good bet when throwing on the run. Two of his five INTs have happened when he escaped pressure and tried to make something happen on the run. Right now, McCarthy should tell him to play it safe and throw it short or away when the pocket collapses. Take those two INTs away and the Packers can live with 3 INTs in 2 games.

For the second week in a row, RB Eddie Lacy was limited as defenses turned their focus on him. It didn't help that RG T.J. Lang said the line was missing assignments. They eventually got away from the running game, but going run-run-pass-punt on their first two possessions, when the Giants were focused on the running game, got them off to a very bad start.

This was the best defensive game in a few weeks, but it's still a far cry from where they should be. RB Brandon Jacobs was amazed at how easy the running was in short yardage situations. The decision to cover WR Victor Cruz with CB Micah Hyde (and LB Clay Matthews on Cruz's 30 yard reception) was bad. I like Hyde, but he's limited by his lack of CB Sam Shields-like speed and he's probably not one of their top five pass defenders. The defense is struggling with their coverage in the middle of the field, it was another bad game for S Morgan Burnett and LB A.J. Hawk often seems to be leaving someone wide open. Matthews had a sack and he batted down a pass in the fourth quarter, but he looked like an ordinary player for the first three quarters.

The promising signs on defense is that LB Brad Jones and Matthews looked better at the end of the Giants game then they had since their returns. CB Tramon Williams has played great over the past couple games and is looking like the playmaker of old when he's playing against the slot receiver. There are still a lot of questions, as Bob McGinn wrote almost no one stepped up when the Packers needed it, but there is some sign of hope on defense.

The Packers looked overmatched on both sides of the ball, especially on the offensive and defensive lines against the run, and it's hard to watch them lose a winnable game. They've just got to try harder next week.