Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The Packers Defend The Signing of Cedric Benson

Sure RB Cedric Benson was completely unwanted by any team, and he signed with the Green Bay Packers at the minimum salary with no signing bonus, only after four of their five running backs were either injured or limited due to prior injuries, but GM Ted Thompson said "We liked what we saw with Cedric."

He's talking about him as a player he wanted, not a player he was forced to sign, and he probably could have re-signed RB Ryan Grant instead. He's made his choice, one that could turn out to the wrong choice based on Benson's decline over the past two seasons, and he's sticking with it.

I have to admit, while I was cool on the idea at first, I'm warming up to him. Statistically, re-signing Grant looked like the better move, but with all the injuries (and the inexperience in the Packers's backfield), I'm glad to see a veteran back on the roster. The addition of Benson reminds me of when they re-signed Ahman Green back in 2009.

Just like Benson, the Packers brought Green in for a try out and thought he could still play. They were right; Green ran for 3.9 ypc that season. That's hardly elite, but it's good enough to deserve a roster spot. He also added some veteran stability when the Packers seemed to need it in the backfield, and they seem to need it again now. Also, if Benson does end up starting and he manages to deliver a big run or two, he could give opposing defenses something else to worry about.

Benson will also have the advantage of playing behind the first offensive line, whenever he finally gets on the field, because starting LT Marshall Newhouse has returned from his concussion. Depth is still a concern until Derek Sherrod returns to practice, but he will return at some point this season and it's possible that Andrew Datko can improve over the course of the preseason. Also, I liked what I saw from undrafted rookie Don Barclay at left guard during the first preseason game against the Chargers. That's not outstanding depth, but it should be good enough.

There was a rumor that Chad Clifton might take a physical for the Patriots, who have their own injury problems on the offensive line, but that turned out to be false. If he is able to return, I'd hope he come back to Green Bay.

Monday, August 13, 2012

T.J. Lang Agrees To A Four-Year Extension

It's been reported by Adam Schefter that the Green Bay Packers have extended the contract of T.J. Lang.
After they allowed Daryn Colledge and Scott Wells to depart as free agents over the past two years, it's not a big surprise to see them extend Lang's contract. I've been expecting it for a while.

He struggled as a rookie when he was forced to start at tackle, but last season he beat out Derek Sherrod for the starting LG job, and started every game while surrendering only 2.5 sacks and committing 7 penalties. He could do a better job of avoiding the false start penalties, but Aaron Rodgers has a notorious hard count and Lang has never been flagged for holding.

The terms haven't been released, but GM Ted Thompson isn't known for overpaying players. I guess he'll receive around $5 to $6 million per season, which would be less than Josh Sitton is being paid (over $8 million per season), and approximately what Colledge and Wells are being paid by Arizona and St. Louis, respectively. That's a fair deal for a 24 year old starter.

Friday, August 10, 2012

Should The Packers Sign Cedric Benson

Simple answers to simple questions: No. But the Green Bay Packers might sign RB Cedric Benson anyway, as was reported by Ian Rapoport at NFL.com, and they (hopefully) have a good reason.

While I don't believe this line of thinking, here's why he could be a good signing. I questioned last week whether James Starks was really the answer, and pointed out that there isn't a strong Plan B on the roster. Cedric Benson has shown great athleticism and production in the past, and a strong work out could be a sign that he still has some game left in him. After weak performances by Starks (5 carries for 16 yards) and undrafted rookie Marc Tyler (13 carries for 32 yards) in their opening preseason game, they understandably might want an upgrade.

On the other hand, there are many reasons why he's not the answer. He has rushed for over 1000 yards each of the last three seasons, but he's done it while averaging under 4 yards per carry. Football Outsiders had him ranked near the bottom of the pack last season for good reason: his low ypc and his tendency to fumble. I double-checked their section on him in the 2012 Football Outsiders Almanac, and there's nothing positive to recommend him there either.

Other red flags abound, he's frequently in trouble with police and he's on the wrong side of age 30, but his fumbles, on a team that prides themselves on winning the turnover battle, is my biggest concern. However, he might not be given more than 150 carries even under the best of circumstances, which would only add one or two more fumbles (potentially) over the course of the season.

It's disappointing to see his signing receive serious consideration, they should have planned this better during the offseason, but his arrival wouldn't have a major impact one way or another.

Preseason Recap: Packers Beaten By The Chargers 13-21

It was an ugly, sloppy preseason game (which happens) but this might have been the best play for the Green Bay Packers: a Nick Perry sack. The Packers need a pass rush and Perry showed what he can do:
My notes on some other major points:

  • I never like seeing injuries during the preseason, and it sounds like Desmond Bishop suffered a serious one. The very limited description reminded me of the multiple leg injuries sustained by Chad Clifton last season, and it wasn't something he wasn't able to come back from. The only silver lining is that the Packers have some depth at inside linebacker, and Bishop was far from great last season.
  • No one should been surprised that Herb Taylor isn't the answer at left tackle. I guess the Packers had to give him a shot while Marshall Newhouse and Derek Sherrod were both out, and luckily Aaron Rodgers lived to throw another day.
  • Rodgers looked extra sloppy with two turnovers in three possessions, however, he's been so good at protecting the ball over his career that this should be just viewed as a blip on the radar.
It's hard to tell whether one bad (or good) preseason game should be a make-or-break moment for any backup player. I'm waiting until at least next week to give them a thumbs-up or down. Bring on the Browns!

Monday, August 06, 2012

Marshall Newhouse's Concussion Challenges The OL Depth

I don't think the Green Bay Packers really wanted to enter the 2012 season with Marshall Newhouse as the only experienced, healthy left tackle on the roster. Despite their faith in Newhouse, his concussion (and it could keep him out a while, the recovery time is different for everyone) has exposed the lack of depth at offensive tackle.

The only way the free agent adverse Packers would have added veteran depth was if Chad Clifton returned healthy, but that dream ended when he failed his physical in April and he was released. It's possible he could come back in 2012 and I recall reading somewhere that the Packers were initially pleased with Clifton's recovery. The Packers have re-signed players months later, once they're healthy; that's what they did with Anthony Levine last season. However, his likely desire to start makes his return seem less likely.

They probably expected Derek Sherrod to return to practice by now, though he's still not ready. Fortunately, he should return at some point this season. After using two consecutive first round selections on offensive lineman, I can't blame the Packers for avoiding the position in the 2012 draft. They did select Andrew Datko in the 7th round, and he looked good during the OTAs back in May, but reality has set in and he's getting overwhelmed in practice. He doesn't appear to be 100% recovered from a serious shoulder injury during his senior season.

Until Newhouse returns, it's Herb Taylor with the No. 1 offensive line, but even Mike McCarthy didn't seem too excited about Taylor's prospects when he called him "raw" despite the Packers being his fourth NFL team. Taylor is probably their fifth option (behind Newhouse, Clifton, Sherrod, and Datko) but they probably would survive with him at left tackle. However, if Newhouse and Sherrod don't return soon, I don't expect the Packers to stand pat.

GM Ted Thompson has been known to make a trade or two at the end of the preseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if this season's no exception. After they've scouted all the preseason games around the NFL, they could trade a 6th or 7th round draft choice for a tackle that could help them now.

Friday, August 03, 2012

Maybe James Starks Isn't The Answer At Running Back

If a running back's ability to pass block was the main talent required by the Green Bay Packers, then they might have never let RB Brandon Jackson leave in free agency last year. They seem to consider pass blocking as a secondary skill, maybe believing it's something they can teach. But this recent tweet made me think about it again:

I've been comfortable with James Starks as the running back of the near-future. He isn't a home-run threat, but he's a powerful runner who can keep defenses honest, and they can't teach just any player to be big and fast. While the Packers have been willing to let him pass block, it's never been seen as his strength, and he doesn't appear to be a natural at it.

Adam Czech paid some attention to pass blocking in his recent breakdown of the position, and reasonably decided to go with James Starks anyway. Apparently the coaches agree: it's better to play the running back that defenses' have to respect and then teach him how to pass block.

If they did want to go with a better pass blocker, it's not clear who's that would be. Maybe Alex Green or Brandon Saine are better, but I haven't seen enough from either player to know for sure. John Kuhn's probably a better blocker, but he's struggling with a bad knee and no defense has to give him any respect as an open field runner when he's healthy.

Of course, Ryan Grant is still a free agent, but he's never been known for his blocking either. The only free agent running back who came to mind was Clinton Portis, but that's not a Ted Thompson-like move (signing an unwanted veteran) and Portis sounds retired anyway (even if it's not official).

I don't have an answer to this question, going into the season with Starks as the starter sounds as good as any alternative, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a change if some problems pop-up during the preseason.

Punter Tim Masthay Gets Paid

I'm sure this is exactly how Tim Masthay's agent pitched it to his client. You'll be Number 15!
The Green Bay Packers have signed punter Tim Masthay to a four-year contract extension that will make him the 15th highest paid player at his position.
Snark aside, that contract ($5.465 million, $1.2 million signing bonus) sounds about right. The coaches have done a nice job of finding some free talent and turning him into a useful player. And they didn't waste a 3rd round pick trying to solve the problem (cough...B.J. Sander).

But there's nothing extraordinary about him either: he was ranked No. 22 overall last season in net average and Football Outsiders gave him a negative score. Still, it was a nice recovery by Ted Thompson's staff after they made one of their few personnel mistakes: releasing Jon Ryan. Their first two attempts at replacing him with Derrick Frost and Jeremy Kapinos were complete disasters, but the third time was the charm.

They could do better at the position, but as with Mason Crosby, the Packers seem content with a good enough kicker.

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Tuesday's Training Camp Report

I've got no idea why the Green Bay Packers would need to sign another TE. This time it's DeMarco Cosby who's been out of football for almost a year. My best guess is that they need another body for special teams drills. If they needed depth at any position, it would be at defensive back. They could use someone to replace Charlie Peprah, but they probably want to give their young guys, like M.D. Jennings, as many reps as possible.

Tuesday's practice wasn't an injury-free affair. The Press-Gazette reported that DE Ryan Pickett injured his knee, rookie RB Marc Tyler hurt his shoulder when he took a big hit, and rookie DL Mike Daniels injured his knee and/or groin. Daniels was starting to draw some praise during practice, and he was recovering from an injured shoulder during the offseason, so his injury is probably the one to watch.

As if the AP college football rankings weren't already suspect, they've decided the time is now to launch a similar subjective ranking system for the NFL: The AP Pro32. Of course, I'm glad to see the Packers are No. 1, but the ranking is only there for fans and ESPN's talking heads to argue over.

Monday, July 30, 2012

The Packers First Full Week of Training Camp

The Green Bay Packers's practice schedule this week features three morning practices, an evening practice on Thursday, and Friday's Family Night televised scrimmage. My first thought was that it looked like a challenging week of practice in hot and humid weather, but without the two-a-day practices anymore, it's probably better than it used to be.

Unfortunately, these televised scrimmages aren't very informative, players emerge or disappoint during the preseason games, and they've been rained out in recent years. Still, it's always good to see some football.

I'm not expecting much news this week. Some players may look awful or great in practice, but it doesn't matter until the preseason games begin. There will be some injuries to watch, but most of the big injury news (Bishop, Kuhn) came last week. There shouldn't be any significant roster moves, like the release of Charlie Peprah, until the end of the month.

Friday, July 27, 2012

While Charlie Peprah Was Released, The Packers Demoted Sam Shields

One thing I got wrong when I wrote about the new alignment of the Green Bay Packers's secondary was that Sam Shields would still be the nickel back. Instead, M.D. Jennings played in the nickel defense. From Tyler Dunne:
Charles Woodson lined up at safety in the team's base alignment, a defense used 25% of the time last season. But in the team's nickel package -- which Dom Capers used much more often -- Woodson slid down into the slot and M.D. Jennings was with the No. 1 defense at safety. For now, Jarrett Bush ran with the starters at right cornerback.
Dunne opened his article with an earlier quote from Mike McCarthy, who said he doesn't talk about his players as a "starter" because it's all about how often his players are on the field. Just because they don't start the game on the field doesn't mean they won't be playing a lot.

So Woodson is the "starter" at safety, but he'll probably spend more time at cornerback. The coaches now think Bush is their 4th best defensive back, and Jennings is their No. 5. The loser here is Shields, who seemed to hold onto his nickel spot during the OTAs (of course, it seemed like Charlie Peprah was going to be the starter too), but now he'll have to play his way back onto the first team nickel defense.

The rookies aren't playing a role in this discussion, yet, but a lot can change over the course of a training camp. However, I'm not expecting much from Casey Hayward or Jerron McMillian. Though Shields himself came out of nowhere as a rookie in 2010 to become the nickel back, the Football Outsiders 2012 Almanac has a great discussion about Cowboys rookie CB Morris Claiborne, and why no one should expect great things from rookie defensive backs.

In the end, I don't see a big mistake being made. I'm no fan of Jarrett Bush, but Sam Shields played poorly last season. It's hard to make a strong case that another season from Charlie Peprah is better than giving M.D. Jennings a chance at safety. These might be marginal improvements, but they don't look like a big step back either, and Shields will still be given an opportunity to turn himself around.

The entire situation reminds me a little bit of the Baltimore Ravens, who seemingly run out a new set of starting cornerbacks every season while still having a strong pass defense. The changes in personnel don't seem to make a huge difference because their pass defense is keyed by a strong pass rush, and it might actually struggle for the first time in many seasons because of the likely absence of Terrell Suggs. On the other hand, the Packers made a big push to improve their woeful pass rush by the addition of Nick Perry. The combination of Bush and Jennings might appear to be a big improvement in 2012, if the pass rush is a lot better.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

The Charlie Peprah Era Comes To A Close

As the Journal-Sentinel noted, it was a little surprising that the Green Bay Packers chose to release Charlie Peprah. I'm surprised that they didn't release him sooner. His 2011 season was horrible, and he was one of the players responsible for the team's worst play of the season: the Hail Mary touchdown pass against the Giants. I don't know if they did him a favor by releasing him now, but at least he's got a month to try and catch on with another team.

Peprah was originally with the Packers as a special teams player for three seasons before he was released in 2009. He re-signed in early 2010, the Packers were really looking for some help on special teams, but he looked better on defense, and he was a solid replacement for the injured Morgan Burnett in 2010. Unfortunately, his 2011 season was a giant step back, despite the five interceptions he recorded, and he was rated by Football Outsiders as one of the worst players at his position.

Of course, the next question is who will replace him at safety? They drafted a safety in the 4th round (Jerron McMillian) and second year player M.D. Jennings is returning, but neither one was seriously considered as a starter during the offseason. There was some talk of moving Charles Woodson to safety, but no one from the Packers seemed in favor of that move. I didn't think much of it either: why move Woodson if he's so good defending receivers in the slot?

However, when the first practice began, it was Woodson on the field at safety and Jarrett Bush at cornerback (another player involved in the Hail Mary fiasco). I'm never in favor of more playing time for Bush, but it's hard to say that Peprah is a better player. Mike McCarthy did an interview a few months ago during which he regretted not giving more playing time to Bush last season, so he's a believer in his ability as a corner and the team did just re-sign him to a new contract. I wouldn't be surprised to see Woodson stay at safety this season.

Bush had been playing the understudy role to Woodson for at least the last couple seasons, so I expect he'll now take over his job in 2012, if Woodson stays at safety. Bush might technically start at corner ahead of Sam Shields, but when the defense goes into the nickel, Shields will be lining up against the outside receiver, and Bush will be covering the receiver in the slot.

I wouldn't think that choosing Bush over Peprah, which isn't a straight swap since it requires moving Woodson to safety, to be a big improvement, but obviously the coaches and GM Ted Thompson disagree. I'm not crazy about either option, but things couldn't get any worse than they were last season, so it doesn't hurt to try.

Desmond Bishop Failed His Physical?

The Green Bay Packers announced via the NFL transaction wire the players who failed their physicals. Among them were three expected players that Mike McCarthy named earlier, a couple of backups (Brooks and Jones) who I'm not expecting much from anyway, and two new names: LB Desmond Bishop and LB Frank Zombo.

I'd written recently about Bishop's poor 2011 season, and inside linebacker isn't a position they need to panic about. I'm not expecting much of a difference if D.J. Smith was forced to play, and he's taken over for Bishop during the Packers's first practice. Still, the Packers just reported the injury late on Wednesday and it might not be a big deal.

When I wrote about the linebackers, my only comment about Zombo was that he's going to have to prove he's healthy, and he's been unable to do it. I'm not rooting against him, but I'm not optimistic about his tenure with the Packers either. He's got a lot to prove on the field anyway, and the Packers aren't going to show a lot of patience with him if he's hurt.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Mike McCarthy On Injuries And The Offensive Line

Usually the only bits of good information to be gained from a Mike McCarthy press conference are about injuries, and his presser on Wednesday was no exception. Here's the complete recap from Tom Silverstein:

TE Andrew Quarless, OL Derek Sherrod, and FB John Kuhn might all fail their physicals. I doubt this is a surprise to anyone with the Packers. Quarless's (torn knee ligaments, see below) and Sherrod (broken leg) were very serious injuries. I'm not counting on Quarless at all this season, and I expect he'll spend it on I.R.

McCarthy said that Sherrod is "getting close." I don't expect he'll be on the PUP list so he can practice at least on a limited basis. He still has so much to learn that he'll need that time with the coaches, even if he isn't ready to play.

McCarthy sounded more optimistic about Kuhn than either Quarless or Sherrod, but in hindsight, they might have made the wrong decision by choosing rehab over surgery for his MCL injury. I would have guessed that Kuhn would have been fine without surgery too, and that his knees are strong enough for the MCL to heal on it's own. They really don't have an obvious Plan B with only a couple of undrafted free agents behind him on the depth chart. This could lead to a change in strategy this season with the full back being de-emphasized in the offense. Of course, a similar thing happened in 2010 when Kuhn spent significant time at running back after Ryan Grant's injury, and the offense didn't struggle.

Finally, along with the news that McCarthy will spend more time with the offensive line after Joe Philbin's departure, he spoke about his confidence in Marshall Newhouse, and that the quarterback has confidence in him too. That's a pretty ringing endorsement. The stats haven't shown that Newhouse really deserves it, he did give up a lot of sacks last season, but McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers seem to think Newhouse really turned a corner late last season.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Some Deep Thoughts From Mike Tice

I'd really like to thank the Chicago Bears for bringing Mike Tice back into prominence in the NFC North, which makes unintelligible quotes like this possible, courtesy of the Chicago Tribune, via Pro Football Talk:
“I’ve helped establish some good offenses over my career and I’ve played in some good offenses over my career. I think I know what a good offense looks like,” Tice said. “At the end of the day, we’re going to have a certain personality and at the end of the day it will be one of explosiveness and one of intelligence and one of rhythm and one of tempo and one of enthusiasm. You have to have all of those to be an elite offense.”
On a sarcastic note, I don't recall ever seeing players worked out at the NFL combine on their ability to bring rhythm and tempo to the field. If that was very important, maybe Donald Driver is the missing link to a dominant Bears offense.

I can't tell what type of offense the Bears will be running based on that quote. Does explosiveness involve a short passing attack, or will Brandon Marshall be used more as a down field threat? Will it look a lot like it did in 2011, except Tice won't be trying to kill Jay Cutler?

Maybe Tice was just using coach-speak, answering a question without really telling you something new. But it's not like a Tice is a noted offensive genius. Instead, he's the coach best known for bringing the Randy Ratio to the NFL. It doesn't look like he'll be bringing anything to the field other than some rah-rahs for his players while they're watching Jason Campbell take the field for an injured Jay Cutler.

Monday, July 23, 2012

The Football Outsiders 2012 Almanac: Looking At The Problems On Defense

July is a boring month for football, but it's also when the Football Outsiders Annual Almanac is released. It can be a tough read that makes me wonder if I've stumbled into a college textbook on statistics, but the team chapters are great, even if you're only skimming over the percentages. I'm not going to copy-and-paste the entire chapter on the Green Bay Packers, but overall it's going to reassure fans that they have a very good team.

I will bring up one group of players: the linebackers. Selecting Nick Perry in the 1st round has been a big first step towards improvement, but I've been worried about the return of A.J. Hawk at starting middle linebacker. However, according to Football Outsiders, he was better against the run and pass than any linebacker who wasn't named Clay Matthews last season.

Instead, the linebacker who came out with major egg on his face was Desmond Bishop, who graded out as poorly against the run (worst) and pass (bottom five) as any linebacker in the NFL. Bishop's never been great in pass coverage so it's not surprising to see he had some problems, and he'll much better in 2012 if the pass rush is improved. But I've always thought he was great against the run, so his terrible ranking was a surprise. However, plays like this one didn't help his stats.


Football Outsiders probably counted this play against him. Adrian Peterson ran right at the spot where Bishop should have been. Instead he was blocked out of the play, though he did manage to catch up 50 yards later to make the tackle. This is a really good example of his problems and why he needs more help from his teammates.

At the snap, Bishop's lined up behind B.J. Raji at NT, and Howard Green at DE. Green, who won't be back next season, was pushed outside by the left tackle while Raji did nothing against a double team. In fact, the center was able to come off Raji and move up into the second level to block Hawk too. Raji's poor effort was probably due to the fact that this was late in the game (the last play of the 3rd quarter) and it was the point last season when he was starting to look completely winded because he never left the field. With a wide open path on the left side, the full back ran untouched through the hole to knock Bishop off his spot and gave Peterson a lot of room to run. Charles Woodson and Morgan Burnett each missed an open field tackle that could have limited it to a 10 to 15 yard gain. To Bishop's credit, he disengaged quickly from the full back to get back into the play.

This, of course, wasn't the whole story. The Packers were among the league leaders by playing with five or more defensive backs on 70% of their plays, and they were one of the worst overall, as a team, allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. As much as Bishop struggled against the run, the defense wasn't lined up to prevent the run, and overall did a poor job against it.

What should happen next season is that the Packers will have a better player (rookie 2nd round pick Jerel Worthy) at that defensive end spot, Raji won't be as worn down from playing so many reps, and they'll give Hawk or Bishop a much better chance at making a play. Now we have to wait a couple more months before that can become a reality.

Friday, July 20, 2012

The Packers 90-man Roster: Linebackers

The Green Bay Packers are bringing thirteen linebackers into training camp next month, so this has to be one of the biggest areas of competition on the roster based on size alone. Though they could keep as many as ten on the 53-man roster. Overall, this may be the best group of linebackers to play for the Packers since the early 1980s.
Player Height Weight Age Experience
Bishop, Desmond 6-2 238 27 6
Francois, Robert 6-2 255 27 3
Hawk, A.J. 6-1 247 28 7
Jones, Brad 6-3 242 26 4
Lattimore, Jamari 6-2 230 23 2
Manning, Terrell 6-2 237 22 Rookie
Matthews, Clay 6-3 255 26 4
Moses, Dezman 6-2 249 23 Rookie
Perry, Nick 6-3 265 22 Rookie
Smith, D.J. 5-11 239 23 2
So'oto, Vic 6-3 263 24 2
Walden, Erik 6-2 250 26 5
Zombo, Frank 6-3 254 25 3
Unless there's a big shake-up in training camp, it will be Bishop, Hawk, Matthews and Perry starting at linebacker. There should be no doubt about Bishop and Matthews, and while Hawk had a poor 2011 season, the coaches are publicly supporting him and I can't imagine they'd take away his starting job in training camp.

I don't believe the Packers would have drafted Perry in the 1st round if they didn't expect him to be good enough to start immediately. They might limit his snaps if he struggles in some situations, such as obvious rushing downs or on defensive calls when they need a linebacker to drop into pass coverage, but I expect he'll start one way or another.

While the Packers should keep six (or seven, if a linebacker is kept on the practice squad) of the remaining nine players listed, I have no idea who they might be. It all depends on whether they can stay healthy, and how they play this preseason.

Francois has been cut before, so he's not a lock. Jones has been in-and-out of favor for the past three seasons, he's been lining up inside this summer, and he'll need a strong camp to stay. Lattimore looked good last preseason, but he did little when he had a chance to play during the regular season. Smith might be the one sure thing among the backups, but a poor preseason could doom his chances too. So'oto followed an outstanding 2011 preseason with a MIA regular season due to injuries, and he did little when he was able to play. Walden received little interest in free agency, and despite his limitations as a pass rusher and in coverage, he's probably the best outside LB after Matthews and Perry. Zombo had a lost 2011 season due to multiple injuries, and he'll have to prove that he's healthy and productive. Overall, there's a lot of potential with the returning backups, but an awful lot of question marks too.

Finally, Manning and Moses are the other promising new additions. Manning looks like he could be a solid middle linebacker in coverage, and he could be a Brandon Chillar type of player. Moses has been the star of the OTAs, the undrafted player who's already earned some reps with the first team defense. It's very early in their careers, but so far so good.

Overall competition level: high. There are a lot of good players here, and at least one promising player or former starter is going to find himself released before the start of the regular season. The Packers needed to upgrade the position, and they've certainly done it.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

The Packers 90-man Roster: Guards

I feel like I'm cheating. There's not much to write about with the guards for the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have two young, established starters, and a group of undrafted free agents battling for a reserve job.
Player Height Weight Age Experience
Barclay, Don 6-4 305 23 Rookie
Brooks, Jaymes 6-2 300 22 Rookie
Cook, Grant 6-4 318 23 Rookie
Dominguez, Ray 6-4 334 24 2
Lang, T.J. 6-4 318 24 4
Sitton, Josh 6-3 318 26 5
Sitton was outstanding during 2009 and 2010, and he was rewarded early last season with a huge contract extension. He's not going anywhere, and he should be in the discussion when people are talking about the best right guards in the NFL. He was a little off his game last season as he played through some injuries and missed two games, but he should be back strong.

Coming into the 2011 season, T.J. Lang had a lot to prove. He'd shown some promise at guard during his first two seasons, but faced only mild competition from Derek Sherrod during the preseason before securing the starting left guard job. And he did a fantastic job in his first season as a starter. He'll be a free agent next March, but the Packers are almost certain to extend his contract before then. With the departures of Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, and Scott Wells over the past two years, there's room for him under the salary cap. Bryan Bulaga won't be a free agent until after the 2014 season, so they can afford to take care of Lang now.

Ray Dominguez has played at both guard and tackle, but he's currently listed as a guard. He spent most of the last season on the practice squad, and he'll be eligible for it again in 2012. He was as good as any reserve lineman who played last preseason, but he wasn't great, and the pool of undrafted rookie free agents (Barclay, Brooks, and Cook) could challenge him with a strong preseason of their own.

Overall competition level: medium. While the starters are set, the backup position is wide open. Not only are four players battling for what could be only one spot on the practice squad, they also have to worry about spill over competition from the tackle position (that'll be a future post). This will be a position I'll be watching this preseason because I really want one of these players to step-up and establish himself as the clear backup guard.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Drew Brees Confirms It: Aaron Rodgers Should Be Paid $20 Million Per Year

Though the Saints's new contract with Drew Brees did set a record with $60 million guaranteed, it's about the same contract that Peyton Manning signed with the Broncos a few months ago. Zack Kruse has all the contract details. The difference between Brees and Manning is that, due to Manning's well known neck injury, he's only guaranteed $18 million in the first year, and it becomes $60 million guaranteed in 2013 only after he passes a physical.

Since Brees has no similar medical problem, the Saints aren't waiting a year, and they're bringing the total guaranteed money to $60 million immediately. It makes me wonder what took the Saints so long. They basically gave Brees the same contract as Manning, without the medical concerns.

So this probably means the Green Bay Packers will come agree to a new contract with Aaron Rodgers sooner rather than later. As Zack Kruse points out, Rodgers is underpaid compared to other elite quarterbacks, and none of them are the defending MVP. I'd be shocked if GM Ted Thompson hasn't been planning to give Rodgers a raise, and that he's just been waiting for Brees to confirm the market price ($20 million per season).

This reminds me of what happened two years ago. Darrelle Revis signed a new five-year contract and established the cornerback market, and two days later, the Packers gave Charles Woodson a contract extension so his annual average salary would match Revis's. But since Woodson was already under contract, the discount the Packers received was that Woodson received less guaranteed money, while his average salary was the same as Revis's.

If the Packers do the same thing with Rodgers, they might give him a three-year extension with around $40 million guaranteed. When that guaranteed money is added to the approximately $20 million he's scheduled to be paid through 2014, the Packers would be paying him around $60 million over the next three years. Then they'd set his base salary in 2015 and 2016 at $20 million per season, and he'd be scheduled to be paid $100 million over the next five seasons. That would accomplish the same thing the Packers did with Woodson two years ago: set his average compensation at the top of the market while keeping the guaranteed dollars less than comparable players. That agreement would seem like a win-win for both sides.

Friday, July 13, 2012

The Packers 90-man Roster: The Backs

While these three positions are all on the offensive side of the ball, they don't have much in common, except that they should each produce little competition.

Player Height Weight Age Experience
Cooper, Nic 5-10 249 23 Rookie
Hoese, Jon 6-2 238 23 1
Kuhn, John 6-0 250 29 7
Kuhn made the Pro Bowl last season, Hoese was signed onto the practice squad in December 2011 after his release the previous September, and Cooper's an undrafted free agent. There had been battles at this position in recent years, but now, Kuhn's guaranteed to start, while Hoese and Cooper would be lucky to make the practice squad. The overall competition level here is very low.

Player Height Weight Age Experience
Coleman, B.J. 6-3 231 23 Rookie
Harrell, Graham 6-2 215 27 1
Rodgers, Aaron 6-2 225 28 8
The only competition is for the backup job, and Harrell might not even be battling Coleman for it. If not Harrell, would the coaches trust Coleman or look elsewhere for a veteran backup? While Matt Flynn was named the backup as a rookie in 2008, the odds are very long that it would happen again, especially for a small school player like Coleman. I'm expecting Coleman to spend a year developing on the practice squad no matter what happens to Harrell. The coaches are speaking highly of Harrell's development, and they've made no effort to find a veteran to compete against him, so I'm expecting him to look sharp this preseason. The overall competition between these three players is low, but Harrell's got a lot to prove this preseason.

Player Height Weight Age Experience
Bennett, Du'ane 5-9 213 23 Rookie
Green, Alex 6-0 225 24 2
Saine, Brandon 5-11 220 23 2
Starks, James 6-2 218 26 3
Tyler, Marc 5-11 226 23 Rookie
I haven't looked closely at every position on the roster, but I'd be shocked if there's a position with less experience. James Starks has played in only 21 career NFL games (including the playoffs) but he's by far the most experienced player of the bunch. Green appears to have a solid hold on the backup spot because the Packers made no effort to find a Plan B by either re-signing Ryan Grant or drafting another young back. So I expect the top three running backs will be Starks, Green, and Saine, with Saine's only concern whether he'll make the 53-man roster or have to stay on the practice squad again in 2012. However, Bennett and Tyler could challenge Saine with a strong preseason, and the three undrafted players may find themselves in a real battle for that final spot. The overall competition level is average, but only for the job as the No. 3 back.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Jaws Calls It: A-Rod's The Best

I'm not going to make a big deal about Ron Jaworski's decision to call Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers the best QB in the NFL. Everything Rodgers has done over the past four seasons has been very impressive, including his continuing development. He gets better every season.

But I found Jaworski's Top 30 quarterback rankings interesting. When I was reading through it, I split the list into two parts: before Cam Newton at No. 15, and after Alex Smith at No. 16.

First, it's ironic that Jaws ranked those two quarterbacks next to each other since Smith's been making some headlines for himself by talking about Newton this summer. But I thought the same thing about every quarterback ranked No. 1 through No. 15: he's good enough to win a title. If Newton or Stafford or Schaub was my starting quarterback, I'd leave him alone as the starter, make sure he has a good coordinator and supporting cast, and look to improve the rest of my team.

But if I had Smith, or Josh Freeman or Matt Hasselbeck, as my starting quarterback, I wouldn't be all-in. Some teams, the Titans for example, already have second year player Jake Locker waiting in the wings. I wouldn't have spent a high draft choice on a backup for Sam Bradford, who deserves a chance to start with better teammates and away from Josh McDaniels, but I'd have at least one other young QB on the roster to develop.

I'm just surprised the line is so bright between Newton and Smith, and that's it's right in the middle of the list of the Top 30 quarterbacks.


Monday, July 09, 2012

Randall Cobb Better Be Returning Kicks Next Season

Jason Wilde spoke with the Green Bay Packers special teams coach about Randall Cobb, and Shawn Slocum said that Cobb will remain in his role as a kick returner "no matter how vital he becomes on offense." Of course he should. The alternative, sitting an outstanding kick returner so he's ready to play as the No. 4 WR, is a ridiculous waste.


The Packers's special teams unit has been a sore spot for many seasons, but they finally played well in 2011 and earned a No. 8 overall ranking from Football Outsiders. Mason Crosby had a good season too, but the Packers scored a 3.1 and 3.8 on kick returns and punt returns, respectively. Those numbers were a dismal -6.1 and -2.4 in 2010. That's a hidden part of the game that helps explain, in part, why the Packers went from 10-6 in 2010 to 15-1 in 2011 while their defense was swirling the bowl.

Cobb's good enough to start at receiver in the NFL, but the Packers have the luxury of not needing him to. And as a late 2nd round pick, it's not like his salary is a drag on their salary cap, or on their ability to acquire help at other positions.

As a side topic, I haven't understood the rumors of trading James Jones. Those rumors were started once it was made known that Donald Driver was coming back next season, and his trade could also give Cobb more playing time. But Jones is more valuable to the Packers than to any other team. According to Football Outsiders, Jones was the No. 18 WR overall in 2011, and he wouldn't be that good on any other team as a No. 1 or No. 2 WR. That's the equivalent of Vincent Jackson's production, but at the price of a No. 3 WR. Unless another team wanted to give a high draft choice in return, and he's not worth that much on his own, the Packers wouldn't receive equal value in return.

Sunday, July 08, 2012

The Packers Drop A Lot of Passes

Kevin Seifert breaks down the good and the bad receivers in the NFC North, the ones who do and don't drop passes, and it's not a surprise that three Green Bay Packers made the bad list. 

TE Jermichael Finley. Despite all the potential he's shown over the past four seasons, 2011 was his career year because he finally played in every game. But there's still room for improvement. He's inconsistent, which is surprising because the Packers should be able to find a mismatch for him to attack each week. But he's also got to stop dropping so many passes. I'm not sure this is an area he'll actually show improvement next season.

WR James Jones. Seifert mentions his troubles in 2009, but he might have been thinking about 2010, when a thumb injury was revealed late in the season by Mike McCarthy. Jones has been inconsistent throughout his career, but once his thumb was healed, he rebounded with a very good 69% catch rate in 2011. While Finley has to improve his catch rate, only 60% in 2011, Jones just has to maintain his improvement from last season.


WR Donald Driver. Over the past couple of seasons, there have been some frustrating moments when he's dropped passes in the middle of the field on a slant route that it seemed like he should have caught. However, his 2011 catch rate of 66% is actually higher than other seasons. His current job to catch fastballs from Aaron Rodgers in-between multiple defenders is probably a lot harder than it looks.

Thursday, July 05, 2012

Where In The World Is Ryan Grant?

I'm a little disappointed the Green Bay Packers didn't make an effort to re-sign RB Ryan Grant. I'm not exactly inspired by a group of running backs led by an oft-injured back (James Starks), another coming off a major knee injury (Alex Green), and a bunch of undrafted players (Du'ane Bennett, Brandon Saine, and Marc Tyler). However, that might be good enough for an offense that doesn't rely on the running game.

There's also some comfort in the fact that John Kuhn is still around if an emergency strikes. But Grant could have provided something none of them could: a back who can still play and was playing at an elite level as recently as 2009. Also, he did finish strong last season.
Grant's agent says that he's made visits and received multiple offers, but "the deals haven't been right." I'm sure that's why the Packers aren't paying him anymore. With the exception of Donald Driver, the Packers don't pay for veteran backups who aren't contributing on special teams. And even Driver is arguably a valuable special teams performer for when they need him to play on the hands team during an onside kick.

Grant was OK last season, ranked No. 27 overall by Football Outsiders, but the guy ranked ahead of him at No. 26, Raiders RB Michael Bush, just received a four-year, $3 million per season, $7 million guaranteed contract from the Bears. I think the Bears overpaid for a backup RB, that's starter's money, but Grant is arguably Bush without as many attempts. It's reasonable for him to believe that he should be paid the same.

But Grant is two years older and there's only one Bears team out there will to overpay for a backup RB. No one is obviously viewing either player as a starter, or they'd be starting for that hypothetical team. Hopefully his agent isn't waiting for just the right opportunity and a contract in the $2 to 3 million range because I don't think it exists. There will be an injury or two during the preseason, there always is, but that doesn't mean that team will consider Grant as an option.

It would really be a shame if he doesn't play next season because he should still be playing football. He's still a good backup, and he'd be a better replacement starter than many backups on other teams. While he's never done much on special teams with the Packers, back when he was with the Giants, he was great at playing on the scout team and pretending to be the opponent's starting running back. That's probably not worth $3 million, but that should be worth something to many teams.

Monday, July 02, 2012

The Packers 90-man Roster: Cornerbacks

One of the biggest surprises in last April's draft was that the Green Bay Packers selected a cornerback (Casey Hayward) in the 2nd round. Maybe it shouldn't have been a surprise based on the terrible 2011 season, but I thought the coaches were looking for a bounce back season from Tramon Williams and/or Sam Shields. Instead, they added a shot of competition to the position.

Player Height Weight Age Experience
Bush, Jarrett 6-0 200 28 7
Hayward, Casey 5-11 192 22 Rookie
House, Davon 6-0 195 22 2
Merrill, Otis 5-11 188 24 Rookie
Ross, Brandian 6-0 191 22 1
Shields, Sam 5-11 184 24 3
Turner, Dion 5-11 194 23 Rookie
Williams, Tramon 5-11 191 29 6
Woodson, Charles 6-1 202 35 15

At first glance this looks like a tough spot for three rookies, and a 2011 practice squad member (Ross) who's had zero regular season experience. Unless Hayward is a complete disaster in training camp, which is very unlikely, he'll move into the spot vacated by former Packer Pat Lee, who's now with the Raiders.

Then it comes down to whether one of the three undrafted free agents (Merrill, Ross, Turner) can move ahead of House. While the most likely result is that they're only competing against each other for a spot on the practice squad, the fact remains that House was given zero opportunities last season while the secondary was imploding. If House struggles during the preseason, he could have reason to worry.

But other than a possible competition for the final spot on the 53-man roster, the depth chart should remain the same. Woodson is back, and Bush was re-signed to back him up. Shields took a big step back in 2011, but he played with the first team defense during the open OTAs. Some concern remains about whether Williams is fully recovered from his shoulder injury, but his injured nerve will heal at some point and he kept his starting job throughout 2011 despite his bad shoulder.

Overall competition level: low. Other than a potential battle between Shields and Hayward/House/Bush for the nickelback, there shouldn't be too many surprises here once the longshot, undrafted undrafted cornerbacks fail to move up the depth chart. The cornerbacks need to play a lot better in 2012, but that doesn't mean that there will be a lot of changes to the roster.

Friday, June 22, 2012

My First Time As A Shareholder

I became a shareholder of the Green Bay Packers for the first time last December when they had their most recent stock offering. With the annual meeting of shareholders coming up in July, I've received my first invitation to it. I won't be attending, but it's another souvenir for me.


Wednesday, June 20, 2012

The Packers 90-man Roster: Defensive Line

While the Green Bay Packers have created competition on the defensive line by drafting and signing several new players, there aren't enough roster spots for all of them. Most of the competition will be at defensive end, and these are the players from Packers.com that are considered at that position:

Player Height Weight Age Experience
Guy, Lawrence 6-4 304 22 2
Hargrove, Anthony 6-3 282 28 8
Merling, Phillip 6-5 315 27 5
Neal, Mike 6-3 294 24 3
Wilson, C.J. 6-3 290 25 3
Worthy, Jerel 6-2 308 22 Rookie
Wynn, Jarius 6-3 285 25 4

I'm expecting three of these players will make the 53-man roster, so the competition should be fierce. Guy was stuck on injured reserve last season, and now (assuming he'll return healthy), he has to fight for a spot on  the 53-man roster, though he still may be eligible for the practice squad. Hargrove and Neal are staring down suspensions. While Hargrove may have no chance of changing the commissioner's mind over his participation in the pay-for-performance scheme while he was with the Saints, Neal might have his suspension lifted on appeal because his situation is similar to Andre Brown's. Based on what I read during the open OTAs, Worthy might be considered the top defensive end because of his ability as a pass rusher. Merling, Wilson, and Wynn are going to have to give the team a reason to keep them this preseason, but they all have potential.

Here are the defensive tackles (plus Jones who's listed as a "DL"):

Player Height Weight Age Experience
Jones, Johnny 6-4 310 23 1
Daniels, Mike 6-0 291 23 Rookie
Muir, Daniel 6-2 322 28 5
Pickett, Ryan 6-2 340 32 12
Raji, B.J. 6-2 337 25 4

Three-and-three: the Packers should keep three defensive ends and three defensive tackles. Jones spent 2011 on the practice squad, and that's his only hope of staying with the team again in 2012. Muir only played in 4 games in 2011 before the Colts released him, so he'll have to prove that he still belongs in the NFL, which I don't expect he'll be able to do. That could make it easy to keep Pickett, Raji, and 4th round pick Daniels (assuming his lingering shoulder injury doesn't land him on the I.R.).

The wild card is former Packer Johnny Jolly. Reading between the lines on a recent comment from team president Mark Murphy, who mentioned that he just wants Jolly to "lead a productive life" and notes that Jolly's been out of football for a couple years, it looks like the Packers aren't including Jolly into their plans. He might have some football left to play, but it seems they don't want to take back a player who could easily provide more headaches.

Overall competition level: high at defensive end, low at defensive tackle. Other than Pickett, Raji, and Worthy (Daniels will stay either on the active roster or I.R.), the other three positions could be made up of any combination of these players. These two positions will be ones to watch this preseason.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

The Packers Biggest Question Mark Entering Training Camp

A few questions about the Green Bay Packers were pondered on by Tyler Dunne. I'm not worried about anything on the offensive side of the ball. My biggest question is: Did the Packers make the right decision on Nick Perry?

Based on the first team reps at OTA, it looks like Perry is locked in as the starter at outside linebacker opposite Clay Matthews. Both Frank Zombo and Erik Walden are back, but there's been no mention of either player in a significant role during the open OTAs. Perry might be sliding a little bit under the radar because he's just one of three early round defensive draft picks (Jerel Worthy and Casey Hayward being the others) and the out-of-nowhere performance by undrafted rookie Dezman Moses.

But Moses might still turn out to be nothing more than another Brad Jones. And Worthy was always going to get playing time as a rotational defensive tackle. Hayward might overtake Sam Shields on the depth chart in training camp, but the defense will only take a big step forward when Perry emerges.

Does Perry really want to play linebacker? While he didn't drop back into coverage much in college, all of the weaknesses mentioned by Dan Kadar sound like things that can be improved with coaching, but his speed off the snap cannot be taught.

Right now, I've got no answer to this question, and it won't be answered until he's playing in games next season. His ability to rush the passer, along with the additional depth on the defensive line and the return to health of CB Tramon Williams, could be the final piece needed to turn the defense back into a force. If he struggles, then they'd have to count on players like Williams, Charlie Peprah, and A.J. Hawk to bounce back from disappointing seasons, which might be too much wishful thinking.

Friday, June 08, 2012

Looking Back At The Second Week of OTAs

WR Randall Cobb is already looking fast and catching everything thrown to him, according to JS Online.com. His 2011 season was really impressive considering he had a short offseason to learn the offense, but he's a great talent and the coaches limited his opportunities, which I'm sure helped the learning curve. A receiver's second season, after he's had a year to learn the offense and build a relationship with the quarterback, should be a big one. The coaches, and Aaron Rodgers, all like James Jones, so I don't think Cobb should be expected to move ahead of him. But Jones, Cobb, and Donald Driver could each play about the same number of snaps in 2012. More of this next season!


The Press-Gazette had a lot of comments after Tuesday's open practice:

I wasn't sure if the Packers had gotten anything except an injured player when they drafted T Andrew Datko  in the 7th round, but he's been playing at left and right tackle. I doubt he's in the mix to start, yet, at either position, but the Packers have some other free agent options in camp besides Datko, so he's moved ahead of a few other players already.

LT Marshall Newhouse is starting, but Derek Sherrod is being held out as he continues to rehab his injured leg. Sherrod might have a chance to move ahead and win the starting job, but he won't get his chance until training camp, at the earliest.

The emergence of undrafted OLB Dezman Moses continues, as he battles Erik Walden for the backup role behind Clay Matthews. Maybe he'll be no better than Walden, but it sounds like the Packers found another undrafted free agent keeper. Apparently Walden wants to start, but he'll have no chance if he's stuck behind Matthews. They are leaving the door wide open, unsurprisingly, for Nick Perry to start at the other outside linebacker position, with only Vic So'oto backing him up.

CB Sam Shields is holding off Casey Hayward and Davon House. I don't expect this position to be resolved until we see them all play this preseason.

I'm really glad to read that QB Graham Harrell is showing improved arm strength. The only reason the Packers survived with Matt Flynn as the backup in 2008 was because he wasn't needed. If Rodgers were to miss a game or two next season, I was afraid Harrell wouldn't be up to the task. But he seems to be improving, and I'm looking forward to watching him this preseason.

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

Mike Neal's Appeal and Atari Bigby in San Diego

Green Bay Packers DE Mike Neal is currently expected to begin the 2012 season with a four-game suspension because he took Adderall (which is commonly used to treat ADHD) without realizing the NFL considers it a banned stimulant. However, the NFL has made exceptions for it and Neal is appealing the suspension. Originally, I thought the league office would never lift the suspension, but a running back for the Giants recently had his similar suspension lifted on appeal. I would be more excited by the prospect of having him available for all 16-games next season if he'd played better or stayed healthy over the past couple seasons.

Speaking of healthy players, former starting safety Atari Bigby is currently healthy and making a good impression with his new team, the Chargers. They have an opening, and Bigby is certainly good enough to start, even if his pass coverage skills aren't great. For him, it's all about staying healthy, which is easier said than done. He's a big hitter and it has to take a toll on him.

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

The Return of Tramon Williams in 2012

There might be no member of the Green Bay Packers that needed the long offseason more than CB Tramon Williams. Now that the 2011 season is long over, he told JS Online.com about the nerve damage he suffered last season that left him unable to bench press "35-pound dumbbells" and, most importantly, took away his ability to play press coverage.

Williams didn't become an NFL starter because of his amazing physical abilities; he was undrafted in 2006. He learned how to play aggressively alongside CB Charles Woodson, and when you take away his ability to be aggressive, you see his mediocre 2011 season.

Hopefully the offseason rest does him a world of good, and we can see more highlights like this in 2012.

Williams said "It just takes time. There's nothing you can do...The nerve pretty much has a mind of its own" which is pretty much the official treatment. Unfortunately, the recovery time is different everyone, and he might not be all the way back by the start of the season. Here's to hoping that he's fully recovered by September.

Monday, June 04, 2012

At Safety, The Packers At Least Have a Lot of Options

For whatever reason, under GM Ted Thompson, the Green Bay Packers haven't made a big effort to stock their safety position with depth. When S Atari Bigby struggled with injuries in 2008 and 2009, his absence exposed their lack of depth. It was so bad in 2008 that they switched Charles Woodson to safety for one game, and in 2009, they even gave LB Brandon Chillar some reps at the position.

Actually, at the start of the 2011 season, the Packers had as much depth at safety as they've had in recent years. Nick Collins hadn't missed a game since 2007 and Morgan Burnett had returned from an ACL injury. Charlie Peprah was held in reserve as the top backup after starting in place of Burnett for most of the 2010 season. Instead the position was blown open by the (probably) career ending neck injury to Collins and the collapse of Peprah, who was bad throughout the season, before getting embarrassed during the playoff loss to the Giants.


The Packers haven't uncovered every stone to upgrade at safety, but selecting Jerron McMillan in the 4th round and signing two undrafted rookies is a big haul for them. Obviously the release of Collins has made this more of a priority than it had been in recent years, but the 2012 draft class was weak at safety so it's understandable that they went with some high risk/high reward prospects, especially when they needed to use their high draft choices to bolster the pass rush and defensive line.

JSOnline.com takes a closer look at M.D. Jennings, who the Packers saw something in last year after signing him as an undrafted free agent. I'm not a believer in him yet, but I expect he'll get a much longer look this preseason with a full offseason to prepare, and with the expectation that he should be the top backup, or even the starter alongside Burnett.

He's probably a long-shot to make the roster, but they also signed Micah Pellerin, an undrafted rookie out of Hampton, to give them another option. According to NFL Draft Scout, he's undersized, but showed good coverage skills at the East-West Shrine Game. Right now they need as many options as they can get.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Packers Sign Phillip Merling and Release Two Others

The Green Bay Packers announced a couple of roster moves. First, they released an undrafted rookie (Wake Forest TE Cameron Ford) after he apparently failed to impress at the rookie camp earlier this month. They also released former arena league QB Nick Hill, which wasn't a big surprise after he showed a lack of arm strength during the same rookie camp. I wouldn't be surprised if they signed another quarterback before the start of training camp so they can have four quarterbacks available during practice.

They also signed DE Phillip Merling, who the Dolphins had released last month because he wasn't very productive on the field and he wasn't showing up for the "voluntary" offseason workouts. But the commentators at The Phinsider believed Merling had played better late last season and they were a little surprised by his release.

Since Merling hasn't recorded a sack since 2009, the former second round pick is probably best suited for a role as a DE in their 3-4 base defense. At 6-5 and 315 lbs., he certainly looks the part. I was a little surprised to see the Packers lining up with C.J. Wilson as the starting DE in the base defense during this week's open OTA because Wilson didn't prove last season that he deserves to start. I'm not sure he's even worth keeping on the roster. It wouldn't take a lot for Merling to move ahead of Wilson and find himself starting in the base defense.

In addition to the lack of effort he's been showing in the offseason, Merling had some problems with the law when he was arrested for beating his pregnant girlfriend in 2010, but those charges were dropped after she wouldn't testify against him. The Packers haven't shied away from players with legal problems. Erik Walden was arrested during a similar incident in 2011 and he was recently re-signed.

The Packers won't tolerate him long if he doesn't show enough effort during the remaining offseason program, but if he can turn himself around and move into a starting role as the defensive end in the base 3-4 defense, he could be a solid value signing for the Packers.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

The First Open OTA of 2012: Packers Take The Field

This was the first week of scheduled organized team activities for the Green Bay Packers that will run over the next three weeks. It leads up to the mandatory mini-camp on June 12 through June 14. After that, the coaches and players will be out of sight until training camp opens at the end of July. Only three of the OTA's will be open the public, and today was the first of them.

Here's a recap from the Press-Gazette. With the arrival of first round pick Nick Perry, Clay Matthews has moved back to the right side, which was the side he played on during his rookie season. Back in 2009, Aaron Kampman was bigger (and less mobile in pass coverage) so he played on the strong (i.e. left) side. My recollection was that Matthews switched sides in 2010 so he'd lineup opposite Cullen Jenkins, and give the Packers a strong pass rusher from each side of the field. With no returning pass rusher worth mentioning on the defensive line, I guess it doesn't matter which side Matthews plays on. It's probably better to keep Perry on the strong side, which might give him fewer coverage responsibilities.

Another note was that C.J. Wilson remained the starting defensive lineman in the base defense, while rookie Jerel Worthy is the only defensive lineman alongside B.J. Raji in the nickel defense. This is really the most interesting note from practice. It appears that the Packers are going to rely primarily on the same defensive schemes they used last season. With the addition of Perry, it was possible that they could have used more 4-3 alignments. While I wasn't eager to see a new defensive scheme, though it would have been understandable after last season's poor results, it's not as important to change the scheme as it was the players. Hopefully Worthy will become the pass rusher they need, and he'll give them the pass rushing duo on the defensive line (Raji and Worthy) that's as good as the one that worked so well in 2010 (Raji and Jenkins).

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

The Packers 90-man Roster: Center

Last week, the Green Bay Packers hosted their rookie camp in Green Bay, and signed five players out of the 20+ undrafted rookies who attended it on a tryout basis. With the release of practice squad OL Chris Campbell, who was always a bit of a project, their roster is set at 90 players.

At first I was thinking about the expected 53-man roster. But Mike McCarthy has said that he doesn't "concern myself" with roster spots in May. "Create the competition and your roster will come to you." So instead of looking at the players who should make the roster, this is a look at the competition for each position. I'll start with the center position.
Player Height Weight Age Experience
Draheim, Tommie 6-4 309 23 Rookie
Genus, Sampson 6-1 315 24 1
Saturday, Jeff 6-2 295 36 14
Dietrich-Smith, Evan 6-2 308 25 3
With the departure of long time starter Scott Wells in free agency, veteran Jeff Saturday was signed after spending his first 13 seasons with the Colts. He'll be a good fit with their blocking scheme. Mike McCarthy even went as far as to have dinner with Saturday before he signed, something the coach hadn't done in years, which shows how highly they think of him. He may only play for two more seasons, and he was probably going to retire if the Packers hadn't signed him, so he's a short-term solution. But he should be a good one. He'll obviously be on the roster in September.

The big surprise in last April's draft was that the Packers didn't draft a center for the future. The only player they did add was undrafted rookie Tommie Draheim. He had a good college career at San Diego State, and he's the tallest center on the roster with almost ideal height for the position. But he's making the transition from college tackle, and expecting anything from him next season is speculative.

The Press-Gazette ran a nice story on Sampson Genus, who admitted that he wasn't ready to play last season, though he should benefit a lot from the offseason programs. His listed height of 6-1 is very generous but whether it's truly a detriment is yet to be seen. I think the coaches have to like his potential otherwise they would have brought in someone more likely to contribute in 2012 than Draheim.

Evan Dietrich-Smith was a surprise to make the roster in 2009 as an undrafted free agent, he was released in 2010 after a poor preseason, and he was a surprise returning player in 2011. That said, the Packers have little experienced backups to compete with him, and no other player has been given the opportunity to play multiple interior line positions. With the signing of Saturday, he appears to have no shot to become a starter, but they probably want to keep him around for depth. And he'll always have his highlight with Ndamukong Suh.

Overall competition level: weak. Saturday's the starter, Dietrich-Smith is probably not in a real competition since he'll back up three positions, and Genus should have the inside track for a return trip to the practice squad, if he isn't one of the last players to make the 53-man roster. Unless the offseason program really transforms Draheim into a legitimate option, he should be one of the early cuts this preseason.

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

The Packers 2012 Undrafted Free Agent Class

The Green Bay Packers signed 15 undrafted free agents after the 2012 NFL draft, and I came away pretty underwhelmed. Even the big name player, USC RB Marc Tyler, isn't someone who should be considered a find. He deserved to be undrafted.

He ran a lousy 4.76 in the 40 at the NFL combine, and it gave him a poor 85 Speed Score. I would put him way behind Brandon Saine, who ran a 4.43 in the 40, and has a very good 114 Speed Score. But Tyler does a good job of avoiding defenders (field vision), following his blockers, and catching the football as a receiver.



However, these undrafted free agents may make up a big part of the roster. Looking back at the list of 15 undrafted free agents signed before the start of the 2011 season, I see that 11 of those players are currently on the roster. Some of them were released and re-signed, while Shaky Smithson spent all season on I.R., but there's no denying that they provided depth.

Though the 2011 undrafted free agent class might be a high water mark. The Packers didn't lose as many free agents as they had the previous year, and many of those 2011 undrafted free agents will still be eligible for the practice squad next season. The 2012 undrafted free agent class is going to have to outplay the returning players. Maybe they can do it, but right now it's just speculation whether any of them can. Here's the rest of the players signed:

South Dakota State WR Dale Moss.
Iowa State WR Darius Reynolds.
Vanderbilt DB Sean Richardson.
Buffalo WR Marcus Rivers.
Winston-Salem FB Nic Cooper.
Minnesota TE Eric Lair.
Gannon NT Randy Colling.
Tulane DE/LB Dezman Moses.
Southern Utah DB Dion Turner.
SD State OL Tommie Draheim.
Minnesota RB Duane Bennett.
Wake Forest TE Cameron Ford.
West Virginia OL Don Barclay.
Michigan Tech DE Drew Vanderlin.

Monday, May 07, 2012

In The 7th Round, Packers Select Andrew Datko and B.J. Coleman

My recap of the 2012 draft class for the Green Bay Packers has been a long, slow process over a couple weeks, but there's not much going on until the rookie camp begins this week Friday. However, I'm wrapping up the process with a look at both of the compensatory selections taken near the end of the seventh round.

Round 7, Pick 241. Florida State T Andrew Datko. This is a bit of a departure from what GM Ted Thompson usually does in the seventh round. He's often looking for someone who he thinks has NFL ability, but for whatever reason, they have fallen through the cracks and into the seventh round. The recent selection of guys like Matt Flynn and Brad Jones come to mind. However, Datko hasn't fallen through the cracks. He could have been a much higher selection if a "serious shoulder injury" hadn't derailed his senior season. The Packers must feel comfortable with his medical situation or they wouldn't have drafted him at all, but obviously a lot of teams passed on him. The most likely scenario is that this is a lost pick because of his shoulder, but it's only a seventh round gamble. Projecting his future with the Packers is a bit speculative until we see whether he can play in 2012.


Round 7, Pick 243. Chattanooga QB B.J. Coleman. When looking at late-round quarterback prospects, I was thinking about players like Matt Flynn, Brian Brohm, and Graham Harrell. Quarterbacks who started at schools in big conferences, but they didn't quite have the measurables to be viewed as a top prospect. But this choice is more like another quarterback drafted by Ted Thompson in 2006; Ingle Martin. While Martin started out at Florida before transferring to Furman, Coleman was a top recruit at Tennessee before transferring to Chattanooga. Unfortunately, Martin never figured it out and only lasted one season in Green Bay before his release. Coleman might be doomed to suffer the same fate.

Though it's really up to Coleman whether he succeeds. He's in the perfect situation. He'll be competing for a backup spot again two undrafted quarterbacks that have never started an NFL game. He'll have three excellent teachers in Mike McCarthy, Tom Clements, and Aaron Rodgers. Reading his scouting report, it looks like he has all the ability to succeed, and he just needs a lot more coaching. Something that probably wasn't in big supply at Chattanooga. I could his selection going anywhere from bust-to-boom, but there's no denying that he's got potential.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

In The 5th Round, The Packers Select LB Terrell Manning

The Green Bay Packers had already drafted a pass rusher to play outside linebacker when they chose USC's Nick Perry in the 1st round. But I also listed inside linebacker as a position of need because of A.J. Hawk's poor 2011 season, and I think that's what they've found with this pick.

Round 5, Pick 163. NC State LB Terrell Manning. Watching the film below, I actually formed a different opinion of Manning than the writer for NFL Draft Scout. Manning seems to have good instincts and doesn't appear to bring much as a pass rusher, at least not anything more than any of the other middle linebackers on the Packers's roster. It does look like he needs to work on his fundamentals because he didn't always make the tackle.

In college, he's playing weak side outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, which is why he's listed as an outside linebacker by most draft previews, but NC State did move him around a bit. He often played with a safety to his outside which made him look like an inside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. He was also asked to drop into coverage a lot, so he could make the transition to inside linebacker in the Packers's scheme. But he might be undersized at 237 lbs. to ever be seriously considered a full-time starter outside.

He reminds me a little of last year's late round selection, ILB D.J. Smith. And he's being drafted a round later than most had him projected, so he's got some value to him. He's also coming out of college early, so he might have been ranked a little higher if he could have put together a strong senior season. He shouldn't be a serious challenger for Hawk in 2012, but he'll pressure players like Robert Francois and Brad Jones for a spot on the roster.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Packers Drafted Jerron McMillian With Their Second 4th Round Selection

The Green Bay Packers need help at the safety position, and they needed to find it in the 2012 NFL draft. They selected a defensive back, Vanderbilt's Casey Hayward, in the second round, and maybe that will lead to another cornerback, such as Charles Woodson, being moved to safety. Or maybe Hayward could be converted to safety. But the coaches expect Hayward to remain at cornerback and I think he was selected to pressure Sam Shields, who slumped last season. Also, I don't expect any of last season's cornerbacks to change position. Mike McCarthy has said he's not going to move Jarrett Bush back to safety, and none of the coaches seem eager to move Woodson either. So the Packers needed someone else in the mix at safety, and they grabbed a talented, raw prospect in the fourth round.

Round 4, Pick 133. Maine SS Jerron McMillian. Most mock drafts are hopelessly wrong, and often the players themselves have no idea. McMillian was just hoping to be drafted in any round, much less the fourth round. The Journal-Sentinel also wrote about how shocked McMillian was to be invited to the draft combine in February, and the players at Maine are typically players who receive no scholarship offers.

At 5-11 and 203 lbs., McMillian is about the same size as former safety Nick Collins. He runs a 4.36 in the 40, and in college, he was known as a big hitting strong safety who played close to the line of scrimmage. His combination of size, speed and strength make him an intriguing prospect, but one with a steep learning curve as he goes from Maine to the NFL.

It's up to McMillian himself whether he'll be a candidate to start in 2012. Morgan Burnett was thrown into the mix as a starter in 2010 as a rookie by working very hard over the summer to learn the defense, and he went out and proved it to the coaches during the OTAs. It also depends on what role Burnett will play. Will he spend the offseason preparing to take over for Collins as the deep safety in coverage? Then McMillian might be a natural fit as a safety who plays closer to the line of scrimmage.

Sometimes a player emerges during training camp, but I haven't seen anything from Charlie Peprah, M.D. Jennings, or Anthony Levine that makes me believe in them as a starter. I wouldn't expect a player like McMillian to have a shot to start as a rookie, but he doesn't haven't a lot of quality competition either.