The Packers Will Release Nick Collins

The Journal-Sentinel reports that the Green Bay Packers will release Nick Collins. It's really a sad day for all involved. The Packers will save some salary cap room, but I think GM Ted Thompson would rather pay him and have a Pro Bowl caliber safety. And I understand why they decided to release him. What would happen if he took another awkward hit to the neck? Would he be paralyzed? I really don't want to find out.

It's also a sad day for Collins because he wants to return. It's too bad that it came down to this, and neither Collins or the Packers can know for sure whether he shouldn't play again, but it's the safe decision. And I'd do the same thing if the choice was mine.

In his far too short career with the Packers, Collins became one of the team's best players. He was named the starter during his rookie season in 2005, and he never let go of the job. His first three seasons were on a learning curve. He was good enough to start, but not much of a play maker. However, he broke out in 2008 and made the Pro Bowl in his last three full-seasons (2008 to 2010). He's a great athlete who did everything he could to make himself better, and it's terrible that his time with the Packers has to end this way. Unfortunately it's a violent game, and this is one of those reminders.

The Packers Complete 2012 Mock Draft: 5th through 7th rounds

Who do you expect the Green Bay Packers will draft? With all twelve draft picks in seven rounds? If I get this one right, it's proof that I don't play the lottery enough. Earlier I wrote about the Top 10 draft needs, and those needs are the main focus. I'm certain not to select the correct players, but I hope they address these positions. And I hope they add players to nearly every position on the roster.

I also limited the pool of available players. I matched the Packers draft order with the CBS Sports draft prospect rankings, and selected a player as close as possible to that exact spot. For example, I tried to match the No. 28 overall pick with the player ranked as the 28th best player. But I kept in mind their Top 10 draft needs. So the positions that need the least help were drafted later, and the positions that need the most help are near the top of the draft. 

7th round, pick 243. Mississippi RB Brandon Bolden. Ranked 268 by CBS Sports. His speed score doesn't suggest that he'll be a starting NFL running back, but we're talking about drafting a 3rd stringer in the 7th round. He's got NFL size (5-11, 222 lbs.) and he was a good receiver in college. He looks like a good candidate to battle Brandon Saine for a spot on the 53-man roster.

7th round, pick 241. Northern Illinois QB Chandler Harnish. Ranked 262 by CBS Sports. He reminds me a little of Graham Harrell and Matt Flynn. He's almost the exact same size as Harrell at 6-2 and 219 lbs. He's athletic enough, something that you apparently can't say about Case Keenum, and maybe Mike McCarthy's quarterback school will do wonders for his arm strength and accuracy. 

7th round, pick 234. Regina DT Akiem Hicks. Ranked 235 by CBS Sports. O Canada! Though he might have wound up at LSU if he hadn't been involved in a recruiting controversy. He's a major project, but you can't coach 6-5 and 318 lbs. He'd be a good candidate for the practice squad, and the defensive line could use all the help it can get.

7th round, pick 224. Southern Miss OT Lamar Holmes. Ranked 229 by CBS Sports. You can't coach 6-5 and 323 lbs. but he might never have NFL ability. Maybe the best we could hope for is that he's the next Breno Giacomini. But the Packers have always had one of these guys on the practice squad, Chris Campbell was the guy in 2011, and maybe it should be Holmes in 2012. With the release of Chad Clifton, there's a need for some depth at tackle.

6th round, pick 197. Oregon SS Eddie Pleasant. Ranked 198 by CBS Sports. He might be an undersized linebacker playing safety, but he's finishing an accomplished college career, and he could compete against M.D. Jennings for a backup spot.

5th round, pick 163. Michigan WR Junior Hemingway. Ranked 163 by CBS Sports. At 6-1 and 225 lbs. he'd battle Tori Gurley for the honors as the biggest WR on the roster. It's more likely he'd be a candidate for the practice squad or only be considered if injuries become a problem. But with 12 picks, they should find a receiver to challenge Gurley or Diondre Borel.

Tomorrow, the first four rounds.

The Packers Release Left Tackle Chad Clifton

Here's the official announcement from the Green Bay Packers that they've parted ways with long-time LT Chad Clifton after he failed his physical. Here's what I wrote about it at Acme Packing Company:

After spending most of the 1990s looking for a replacement to Ken Ruettgers, I thought I had read at one time that Wolf was surprised to see Chad Clifton still available in the 2nd round. With his selection, the left tackle position was solidified for the next ten plus seasons. He hasn’t always been the best lineman on the team at any given time, but he’s always been a good left tackle in a league that has a short supply of them. However, I was surprised he wasn’t released earlier. He’s been playing through nagging injuries for years and 2011 looked like the end of the road. But the Packers were more patient than I was. They appeared ready to give him a chance to return next season. And probably compete for the starting job too. I think it’s unlikely, but it’s possible he could return to the team, depending on what happens in the draft. They were willing to keep him, and no other team will sign him until he passes a physical. If he continues to rehab, and he’s able to pass a physical over the summer, then he could be back.

Blogger 2012 NFL Mock Draft

I took part in the mock draft over at Zone Blitz.com, along with a lot of other excellent team bloggers. The first round is now complete though I didn't draft for the Green Bay Packers until late last week. I selected Penn State DT Devon Still in the first round.

While linebacker is a need too, the defensive line needs the help even more. Devon Still would immediately become the second best defensive lineman on the roster if he were selected.

While Ryan Pickett is better at some things, Still would be the complete lineman who can play against the run and pass. And I'm not entirely sold on Still either. That's how bad the Packers defensive line has become.

The Top Ten 2012 NFL Draft Needs For The Green Bay Packers

GM Ted Thompson recently said that the Green Bay Packers draft for long-term investment, and not immediate need. That's a luxury they could afford after winning a Super Bowl, and the selection of OL Derek Sherrod in the 1st round last year was one example. Sherrod helped little in 2011, but he's being counted on as a long-term player on the offensive line.

However this draft can't be treated the same as last year. Thompson isn't known to tip his hand, so while he's said one thing, he could be thinking something else. And I hope that's true because the Packers have a couple major needs.

One part of Thompson's draft strategy is that he doesn't focus heavily on one position. With a dozen draft picks in hand, it should be expected that he'll be adding new players up-and-down the roster. Without focusing on any particular player, and I'll count down the Top 10 most important draft needs. That doesn't necessarily mean he should draft in this particular order, the players won't be available in just the right order, but all of these positions should gain at least one additional prospect in the draft.

10. Offensive tackle. The last time Mike McCarthy spoke about Chad Clifton, it sounded like he was recovering pretty well from the injuries that limited him in 2011. But if he's unable (or too expensive) to return, and Derek Sherrod is slow to recover from his severely broken leg, this could be a position that lacks depth. A late round pick might be a necessity, and he would be a candidate for the practice squad if Clifton and Sherrod return.

9. Wide receiver. This isn't a position that needs depth, but the Packers offense is powered by its wide receivers, and they can never have enough prospects around.

8. Inside linebacker. If A.J. Hawk isn't worried about his starting job (and his roster spot; he won't be paid like a starter to sit on the bench), then he should be. D.J. Smith has a promising future, but the position could use more competition and an inside linebacker could help on special teams too.

7. Cornerback. It's more likely that Sam Shields will bounce back next season than they'll need a rookie to replace him. But with the departure of Pat Lee to Oakland, they have a spot open on the roster, and they should fill it with someone better than the average practice squad player.

6. Quarterback. With Matt Flynn in Seattle, they need another quarterback for the roster. Maybe Graham Harrell is good enough to move into the backup role, but they need a Plan B. A late round pick might be the best option because they could stash him on the practice squad if needed. But I wouldn't be upset if they used an earlier pick on the quarterback they really want.

5. Running back. The Packers have shown no interest in re-signing Ryan Grant. With Alex Green recovering from a season ending knee injury, and James Starks showing no sign that he can stay healthy for an entire 16 game season, they'll need another back.

4. Interior offensive line. Jeff Saturday's been signed, so this center not an immediate need after the free agent departure of Scott Wells. This is a long-term investment, as Ted Thompson would say. A lineman who could play either center or guard would be a valuable backup, and maybe a future starter.

3. Outside linebacker. Some people certainly would put this position higher, but some combination of Brad Jones and Frank Zombo might be just as productive as any rookie they'll draft. But the main point here is that the top two positions are even more important.

2. Safety. Maybe Nick Collins returns and then this need falls down towards the middle of the list. But no one knows that for sure. It's better to play it safe and find a talented prospect who could become the next Morgan Burnett. Without addressing this position, it could be either Charlie Peprah or M.D. Jennings starting. And that's not good enough.

1. Defensive tackle. Sometimes a young Cullen Jenkins goes undrafted and he can be discovered by a good scouting department. But usually the best interior pass rushers are selected early in the draft. And the Packers need a good interior pass rusher. While the Packers base defense is a 3-4, what they need is a 4-3 DT like Jenkins who can play as a 5-technique DE on rushing downs, and line up over the guard (like a 4-3 DT) when the Packers play their nickel defense. Improving the run defense would be a nice bonus, but this is about finding a pass rusher.

Will The Packers Draft A Defensive Back?

There were two different, but related, articles about the Green Bay Packers defensive backfield.

First, the Press-Gazette spoke with GM Ted Thompson about Nick Collins and he said he won't specifically target a safety in the draft. The Packers won't meet again with Collins until after the draft, and even then, they may not know when (or if) he'll ever play again. Thompson never talks much about his draft plans, but the team's immediate needs have to play some part in the decision process (despite his denial). They do have to manage the roster and make sure they have quality players at every position.

Second, the Packers are "looking at a lot of DBs." These guys look like potential undrafted free-agents, but they'll probably need a couple of those guys too. I wouldn't expect much from it, although that's how they acquired CB Tramon Williams.

Bottom line: they can't start Charlie Peprah next season at safety. After a solid 2010 season, he fell to earth last season with poor coverage and poor tackling. If Collins is out, then the list of candidates to even compete with Peprah is short. I'd rather they had a young veteran to challenge Peprah, but they need a more talented option than either M.D. Jennings or Davon House. They'll have to find that player in this draft. The safety class isn't great, and I'm no fan of moving Charles Woodson to safety, though there are a lot of talented prospects at corner. They should use a high draft choice to find a better option at safety.

The Packers Won't Sign Desmond Bryant

NFL restricted "free agents" are free agents in name only. These players never leave their original team no matter how much speculation is out there regarding Steelers WR Mike Wallace. Which is unfortunate, because there's one restricted free agent remaining who could be a good fit for the Green Bay Packers. Raiders DT Desmond Bryant.

I wrote about him back in early March, and saw that he's a good run defender in addition to recording five sacks last season. He'll be a good value for the Raiders, who will probably pay him around $2 million next season. The only way the Packers could have him is if they offered a crazy contract that would be so bad that Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie wouldn't consider matching it. And GM Ted Thompson doesn't do crazy.

Should The Packers Really Target Shea McClellin?

While I was taking a couple weeks off from blogging, a few mock drafts started linking the Green Bay Packers to LB Shea McClellin. He's finished a strong career at Boise State, and at 6-3 and 260 lbs., he seems to be a strong candidate to play outside linebacker in the NFL.

The scouting report at CBS Sports.com says McClellin's a "high effort and energy rusher" and "not an elite athlete." So is McClellin going to play at the same level in the NFL though he doesn't seem to have the same elite athletic ability? You don't draft a player in the first round just because he was great in college and has a high motor. He's got to be the complete package.



In the above video, it looks like Boise State is playing him like a Wide 9 DE. Similar to how the Eagles use DE Jason Babin. Now Babin had a great 2011 season with the Eagles, but the Packers don't use that type of defensive formation. Maybe they're thinking about changing it up, but that's just speculation. I didn't see any highlights of McClellin dropping into coverage and making a play.

McClellin's not going to last until the end of the second round, so if the Packers want him, they'll have to draft him at the end of the first round. He could be the next Jason Babin, but that wouldn't seem to fit with the Packers defensive scheme under Dom Capers.

When The Inability To Run Might Be A Good Thing

Pro Football Focus looks at how well teams ran inside last season, and it's not a big surprise that the Green Bay Packers aren't very good at running in the B-gap (between the guard and tackle). But is this a problem?

I'm sure Mike McCarthy wants his players to execute each play better than their opponent, so I'm sure he sees this as an area for improvement. Maybe OT Marshall Newhouse isn't much of a run blocker, or FB John Kuhn isn't great at getting through the line to take out a linebacker.

The best team last season at running through the B-gap was the Buffalo Bills. And Pro Football Focus noted that most of the Bills' success came when they ran from a shotgun formation. Which is something the Packers offense does on occasion, but it seems like it's used only as a change of pace because it almost never works for them.

Running up the middle seems like a play that's designed to fail. The Packers are pretty predicable about when they're going to run (usually on first down) and that's when they kill their opponent with the play action pass. And if they're sacrificing the run to set-up the big passing play, then that's a trade-off I'd be glad to see them take again next season. Here's an example of a likely inside run to the left that became a big play down field to the right:

Where The Recent Mock Drafts For The Green Bay Packers Stand

There are going to be a lot of mock drafts published in the final two weeks before the 2012 NFL draft, but I'm not expecting to see a big shift in what's expected from the Green Bay Packers. The consensus is that they need to find a pass rusher. And I can't argue with that analysis.

Mel Kiper's April 4th mock draft: USC DE/LB Nick Perry

Todd McShay's April 11th mock draft: Clemson DE/LB Andre Branch

Wes Bunting's April 4th mock draft: Perry

Rob Rang's April 12th mock draft: Perry

Dane Brugler's April 12th mock draft: Penn State DL Devon Still

And if Perry wasn't off the mock draft board by the time the Packers were on the clock, I bet McShay and Brugler would have Perry going to the Packers too. With Perry and Clay Matthews both having roots back to USC, I can see why that connection is made. But it really comes down to the fact that Perry is usually the best pass rusher available at the end of the 1st round.

There is some concern that Perry may want to remain on the defensive line, but he's almost the exact same size as Anthony Hargrove, who the Packers recently signed as a free agent. If Hargrove could have a role on the Packers defense, then it makes sense that Perry could fill a role too. Even if it's not as a traditional outside linebacker.

But I still have a sweet spot for Devon Still. He's been falling down draft boards because of a weak combine workout and a deep draft class at defensive tackle, but a turf toe injury may be holding him back. Otherwise, the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year is a perfect Cullen Jenkins replacement. At 6-5 and 303 lbs. he's a true 3-4 defensive lineman, and he can rush the passer. Maybe he's not a true 1st round talent and better suited as an early 2nd round pick, but on paper he looks like a better fit than Perry. I know where he'd play for the Packers, while I'm not sure what role Perry would fill.

Run Defense: Grading Desmond Bishop

Pro Football Focus grades out linebackers in run defense, and Green Bay Packers LB Desmond Bishop grades out as the best by tackles. Then they change the measurement by looking at Run Stop Percentage instead of tackles, and it turns out he's only one of the best. But there are some other factors that make this analysis complicated.

What isn't complicated is that there's no mention of A.J. Hawk. That's no surprise since he wasn't very good last year. I'd be stunned if the Packers replaced him next season, but he won't last much longer if he doesn't turn it around in 2012.

Back to Desmond Bishop. While he rarely came off the field, except for a couple games when he was hurt, he had the fewest run snaps of nearly every linebacker mentioned by Pro Football Focus. Teams didn't run the ball a lot against the Packers, so Bishop doesn't have as many stops. He wasn't often (maybe never) in a situation where his opponent was obviously trying to run out the clock last season.

Also, Bishop was asked to play run defense on a team that played in the nickel on about 75% of their snaps. Many times, there wasn't a defensive lineman in front of him to occupy the offensive linemen, and he certainly had to fight through many blocks to make plays.

He's a good inside linebacker and nothing here that really changes my thoughts on him. He grades out well statistically, even with a couple of factors working against him in their defensive scheme.

Ted Thompson Talks About Free Agency

This isn't anything new, at least to me, but Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson spoke to reporters at the recent owners' meeting, and he does a good job of explaining exactly how the Packers proceed in free agency. From JS Online.com:

"I know (people) don't believe me, but we're always active in free agency," Thompson said during a break in the owners meetings Monday. "There have been a couple years here in a row that we haven't actually signed anybody.
"It doesn't mean we weren't active pursuing leads, trying to understand the market, doing all that. In the case of Jeff Saturday we were able to address a specific need that we felt like we needed to address because we were unable to sign Scott ( Wells)."

It's hard to notice because they don't (usually) end up signing anyone, but free agency is still part of their annual process. However, they've done such a good job of building the team (primarily through the draft) over the past few years that they don't have a big need to sign a particular free agent. The annual March free agent frenzy has been a sucker's game, and they've done well to avoid the high priced troubles.

Thinking more about Jeff Saturday, his signing had a perfect alignment of events to make it happen. The Packers had an immediate need to fill after Scott Wells left. Nick McDonald might have been the future, but he was bad last preseason, I understand why he was released, and it left them with no young successor waiting in the wings. Saturday still wanted to play, but he wanted a two-year deal when most teams probably viewed him as a one-year solution. And he's still good enough to start, so the Packers offered him starter's dollars when apparently no other team would. I can understand why no other team offered him a competitive contract, why shake up their center position for a one-year solution, but if there was another team seriously interested in him, it's likely the Packers would have been outbid.

Now the Packers can draft Saturday's replacement, give the rookie a year or two to develop (as they did recently with T.J. Lang), and give Saturday the opportunity to start for a couple more years. It's not what I was expecting a month ago, but it's seemed to work out for both sides.

The Packers Were Awarded Four Extra Compensatory Draft Picks

Among #Packers' past compensatory picks: Marco Rivera, Tyrone Williams, @Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, Scott Wells, @MNewhouse74, @jsitton71.
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) March 26, 2012

It is possible to actually determine the formula by which the NFL awards compensatory draft picks, but it's as exciting as trying to figure out the salary cap. Because other teams signed Cullen Jenkins, Daryn Colledge, Brandon Jackson, Jason Spitz, and Korey Hall in free agency last summer, and the Green Bay Packers signed no one from another team, they were awarded the maximum amount of compensatory draft picks: four (two in the fourth round, and two in the seventh round). The picks come at the end of their respective rounds.

There's not a lot to get excited about here. The picks can't be traded, and while the Packers have sometimes gotten a good player with them, a lot of them have been misses. But it will provide them with a lot of extra quality depth in training camp, and if even one of them works out, it's a win.

Bring On The Colts: Packers Sign Jeff Saturday and Daniel Muir

I'm probably not as enthusiastic as most Green Bay Packers fans are about the signing of free agent center Jeff Saturday, who's spent the previous 13 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts. He was ranked as the 5th best center last year and the Packers need a center after Scott Wells signed with the Rams.

But many people expected him to retire. The Colts were willing to offer him another contract, but not as a player. They wanted him to work in their front-office. While he apparently wanted and received a two-year contract, this looks like a one-year stop gap. The Packers should still have a center on their wish list in the upcoming draft. At least now they have a veteran option if the rookie doesn't work out, or a rookie available in case Saturday decides to retire.

I'm really surprised Saturday didn't join Peyton Manning in Denver, but they must not have offered much money and/or showed any interest. GM Ted Thompson doesn't splurge in free agency and isn't known to outbid anyone. While the terms might not be rich, maybe two-years and $6 million, Mike McCarthy had dinner with Saturday, and it appears the team made an effort to show that he was wanted. That bit of respect can go a long way. [It ends up being two-years and $7.75 million, $4 million in 2012, which is richer than I expected. It's probably what they wanted to pay Scott Wells, but Wells was obviously able to find a more lucrative contract with the Rams.]

Another minor move was the signing of DT Daniel Muir. I don't want to make a big deal about it because I don't expect he'll even make the team next year. But with the recent suspension of Mike Neal, and no guarantees that they'll find a good defensive lineman or two in the draft, they could use some more bodies. Muir was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Packers in 2007, and he showed some promise as a pass rushing defensive tackle in his first season. After the Packers traded Corey Williams in 2008, I was expecting Muir to emerge to take Williams's place as a rotational tackle. Instead, he had a poor preseason, and he was released before the start of the 2008 season. He did land with the Colts, and he had a solid 2009 season (10 games started, 52 tackles) during their Super Bowl run. But he was really bad in 2010, He barely played at all last season before his release in November. He's got NFL size (6-2, 312 lbs.) but not NFL ability.

The Pat Lee Era Ends: The Packers Former Second Round Pick Signs With The Raiders

The Raiders have signed free agent CB Pat Lee away from the Green Bay Packers, and I can't say I'm at all surprised. He suffered injuries in 2008 and 2009 that got his NFL career off to a slow start, but that isn't the entire story. When healthy in 2010 and 2011, he couldn't get on the field, and he never developed as a player. The Raiders only gave him a one-year deal, and it couldn't have been for more than $2 million. He's a former second round pick with six round talent.

His best game was in the Super Bowl XLV, when he replaced CB Sam Shields as the third cornerback for a couple quarters. Lee didn't give up any big plays, but it didn't seem like the Steelers realized he was there either. They should have done a better job of challenging him.

Lee barely kept his roster spot at the start of the 2011 season. He played extensively in their final preseason game against Kansas City, and he was OK. He gave up a lot of yards against the Tyler Palko led Chiefs. But he was the best of the rest, and he deserved his roster spot. Only later did we see how bad the Packers secondary was in 2011, and despite all their struggles as they gave up the most passing yards ever in a season, Lee was never given an opportunity. It isn't that "he just needs game experience" he just isn't that good. But if his only competition for a starting job is Ron Bartell and Shawntae Spencer, then he may be given a chance to start at some point in 2012. If he makes their roster.

And don't forget his amazing special teams play from last season. Safety! The Raiders have not found their new kick returner, if they were looking for one.

Tim Tebow Won't Be Traded To The Packers

Tim Tebow is headed to the Jets. The Jets gave up a 4th round pick (with a swap of a 6th rounder for a 7th rounder) which is certainly more than the Packers were probably offering (rumored to be only a 7th round pick). I'm not a fan of his, and he seemed like a poor fit in Green Bay due to his Florida ties and unconventional skills, but a young, healthy, backup quarterback with starting experience is certainly worth a 7th round pick. And I'm not surprised another team offered more.

And now Jets fans have to live through another roller coaster season with a very popular backup quarterback sitting behind a pretty unpopular starting quarterback. Except to hear calls for Tebow after every failed third down conversion by Mark Sanchez.

NFL Teams Don't Go Wild: Jarrett Bush Returns To Green Bay To Play Special Teams

I cringe every time CB Jarrett Bush takes the field on defense for the Green Bay Packers. But on special teams, it's another story. He used to be called for too many penalties on kick coverage, but it's rarely a problem anymore. Instead, he's become the special teams captain and he occasionally pins the ball near the goal line in punt coverage.

So it's not a terrible thing that the Packers have re-signed him for another three-years. It was almost inevitable: his coaches love him. I'm just always afraid they'll think he's a good cornerback and play him on defense. He's only to be used on special teams, and in case of an emergency (if Charles Woodson is hurt). The three-year deal is supposedly better than his previous three-year contract ($4.5 million, $1 million guaranteed) but I doubt it's better than the three-year, $4.2 million contract the Bears gave to Eric Weems. That contract seems to be the going rate for a top special teams performer. Maybe it has more guaranteed money (Weems got $1.5 million) than Bush received the last time.

I'm not surprised he visited with the Jets and Cardinals because it's his right to see if some cornerback needy team would actually go insane and think he can play in the nickel, or even (shudder) start. His agent said that Bush would have only left the Packers for starter's money, so it's obvious no NFL team has lost their collective mind.

While Tim Tebow Rumors Dominate, Jeff Saturday Visits and Manny Lawson Is Mentioned

The Packers may have interest in trading a 7th round pick for Tim Tebow, if the former 1st round pick signs a new (i.e. cheap) contract. I've mentioned the idea of using a 7th round pick next April on a rookie quarterback, and that's effectively what the Packers are interested in doing here. Except Tebow has a couple years of NFL experience under his belt, which can only help the situation. I don't see why the Broncos would only accept a 7th round pick in return, Tebow has more value than that pick is worth and another team is sure to offer more. I'm not a fan of Tebow, I don't ever think he'd ever be an effective starter in Mike McCarthy's offense, but at that price (a 7th round pick with a cheap contract), he'd be worth it.

With Scott Wells in St. Louis, the Packers brought in former Colts center Jeff Saturday for a visit. I could see their interest in a one-year deal, but if the Broncos are truly interested, I can't imagine him signing anywhere else as the Broncos look to surround Peyton Manning with his former teammates. I still think their next starting center will be arriving in next April's draft, with veteran backup Evan Dietrich-Smith as a Plan B.

The Packers might have some interest in free agent Manny Lawson. At 6-5 and 240 lbs., he might be a better fit as an outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, but he's had a lot of experience as a 3-4 OLB with the 49ers. He's very good against the run, and he's better in coverage than expected, but he brings almost zero as a pass rusher. The former 1st round pick never developed as a pass rusher, and his 6.5 sacks in 2009 seems more like a fluke than a sign of hope. He would add depth to the position, and he might be a good fit in a rotation with Brad Jones, but a Jones/Lawson rotation would hardly be a major upgrade. But still, they might be better than Erik Walden was last season.

Packers 2012 Free Agency: Wells Leaves, Then Flynn. Who Will The Packers Sign?

Scott Wells to the Rams. Here's my previous post. I expect the Packers will look for his replacement in the draft, and they'll only with a veteran if they can find someone who's good and won't cost a lot. The last time the center position was unsettled, after Wells struggled with injuries in 2008 and Jason Spitz appeared to be ready to take over, they signed Duke Preston from the Bills. Preston was released before the 2009 preseason ended.

Matt Flynn to the Seahawks. Everyone knew he was gone, and the Seahawks had long been rumored as a possible destination, but the Dolphins didn't really put up a fight with a low ball offer. It looks like their owner still believes he's in the hunt for Peyton Manning, and he doesn't want to settle for Flynn. And Flynn picked up on that. Now the Dolphins will end up missing out on Manning, and maybe they'll get desperate and sign Alex Smith. I guess they'll always have Matt Moore. And there's no way the Seahawks should be choosing Tarvaris Jackson over Flynn.



DE Kendall Langford to the Rams for way too much money. $12 million guaranteed? I'm not even sure why the Packers showed interest in a guy with no sacks and 1 QB hit in 2011. He reminds me of another player the Packers showed some interest in back when they were made the switch to a 3-4 defense and needed a DE: Igor Olskansky. For $8 million guaranteed, he lasted two seasons with the Cowboys and gave them 1.5 sacks.

The Packers show some faint interest in Kamerion Wimbley. He'd be a slight upgrade at outside LB, but he's not that much better then Erik Walden. And I'm not a big fan of Walden. The Packers probably made contact with his agent so he knew about their interest, just in case the free agent market turns out to be tepid. However, Wimbley should have no problem finding someone to pay him $10 million per season. It just won't be the Packers.

It's no surprise to see the Packers lose their players who were unsigned at the start of free agency, and then only show mild interest in a couple of other free agents who were/are certain to sign with other teams. To have done otherwise might have messed up their long-term salary cap and ability to re-sign their best young players, so while it's disappointing now, their patience should be rewarded.

Scott Wells Signs With The Rams

RT @jthom1: Scott Wells' contract with the Rams: 4 years, $24 million, $13 million guaranteed. W/incentives it can max out to $25.5 million.
— tom silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 17, 2012

Back in 2005, after Green Bay Packers Marco Rivera was named to his third consecutive Pro Bowl, GM Ted Thompson didn't re-sign the 33 year old right guard. Instead, Rivera signed a five-year, $20 million contract ($9 million guaranteed) that turned out to be an injury riddled disaster for the Cowboys.

Fast forward to 2012 when, once again, Thompson allowed a Pro Bowl offensive lineman, this time Scott Wells, to sign a big free agent contract with another NFC team. Though Wells has been healthy for the past three seasons, he's had some back troubles in the past. And just like Rivera, he's on the wrong side of 30.

Maybe Rivera's story guided Thompson's decision with Wells, but the driving factor may have been that the Packers have too many good players to re-sign. Could they afford to pay Wells $6 million per season, and re-sign T.J. Lang after next season?

Unfortunately, what's done is done, and it's time to look ahead. Tom Silverstein thinks their next starting center will not be a player currently on the roster. Unless the Packers find a low cost veteran free agent to their liking, it probably means they'll be looking at the draft.

Moving Back Day

After 5 years and two weeks writing for SB Nation about the Green Bay Packers, my time as the manager of the Acme Packing Company has come to an end. It was a change that I had been thinking about for a while, but it wasn't my choice. I'm not exactly sure what the future holds, but in the meantime, I'm going to go back to the blog where it all began for me.

Moving Day! I've been working with the guys over at SportsBlogs Nation for the past few weeks and I've agreed to start blogging at a new address as part of their group of blogs. Please come visit me at www.acmepackingcompany.com. Thanks!

Good news for Chicago which means it won't help the Packers. Chicago is coming off a Super Bowl season, but they have a lot of work to do and have made little progress. Two star players are being shopped for trades, they still have QB Rex Grossman at the top of the depth chart, and assistant five assistant coaches had left. They took one step forward by resigning Lovie Smith with a four year extension. Still losing LB Lance Briggs and RB Thomas Jones would be a step back for the team.

It sounds like GM Ted Thompson is only offering RB Ahman Green a one year deal. It wouldn't be surprising if Green has one more quality season in him, but that's probably it. Green should not accept a one year deal, because this will probably be his last multi-year contract and he might find some team, maybe the NY Giants, desperate for a new running back and willing to give him a big contract. Hopefully Thompson doesn't blink and cave into Green's demands.

I was wondering why it was taking so long for QB Brett Favre to undergo his ankle surgery. Apparently it is all Favre's fault. As much pain as he has probably played through during his football career, it isn't surprising that he put this off for so long. But to put it off for five years until your wife tells you to do it?

After I compliment GM Ted Thompson for having someone like DE/DT Cullen Jenkins under contract next season for around $1.5 million non-guaranteed, he goes out and gives Jenkins a four year contract with around $6 million guaranteed. Thompson said "I still think his best football is ahead of him. It was a good opportunity for the club to try to get a long-term deal with a good evolving player." It isn't that Jenkins is evolving, but he finally got more consistent playing time over the last few weeks when it was obvious DE KGB wasn't playing that great. Jenkins has always shown good inside pass rush moves which was how he made the roster in the first place back in 2004 as an undrafted free agent. The mystery is why it took him so long to receive consistent playing time. As of today, this was too much money to give to a restricted free agent that has only started a handful of games. After the free agent signings begin on March 2nd, this contract might look like a bargain. With DT Vonnie Holliday getting a $7 million guaranteed contract, DT Cory Redding getting the franchise tag, and few, if any, quality pass rushing defensive tackles available in this year's draft, teams might start throwing much bigger money at any defensive tackle with a pulse and a prayer of providing an inside pass rush. Thompson was probably concerned that Jenkins would receive an even bigger contract from another team once free agency began, although signing Jenkins would probably cost the other team a lot of money plus their 1st round draft pick. Thompson seemingly overpaid for DE Aaron Kampman this time last season and that was a great move. Hopefully his luck continues and Jenkins is just as good, or even better, next season.

So who at the combine might be catching the Packers attention?

I said the Packers need a defensive lineman to provide an inside pass rush for most of last season, but then DTs Corey Williams and Cullen Jenkins came on to provide it during the last few games. It still might be the position to draft because DE KGB has declined the past two seasons and Jenkins might be a free agent after next season. Michgan's DT Alan Branch and Clemson's DE Gaines Adams should be long gone by the Packers pick. Maybe someone like Louisville's Amobi Okoye, who is one of the biggest stories at the combine because the guy is only 19 years old and set to become the youngest player ever drafted. Okoye isn't a pass rusher, more of a nose tackle like NT Ryan Pickett, and wouldn't fit an obvious need in 2007, but with someone so young he could be providing solid performance and depth at the defensive tackle position for the next ten seasons.

The Packers need to add a good receiving tight end. Here are the 40 times for tight ends. Arizona State's Zach Miller has been a stud for years but Miami's Greg Olson blew them all away with a 4.47. Unfortunately he didn't show too much production at Miami. Both players would be a reach at 16.

The Packers need depth at wide receiver too. Some mock drafts have the Packers selecting USC's WR Dwayne Jarrett at 16. Unfortunately for Jarrett he didn't run at the combine officially and now his speed is coming into question. Of course the Packers would love Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson, but he will never fall to 16 and might be the first player selected. The receiver who did the most at the combine was Tennessee's Robert Meachem. He blazed a 4.39 in the 40, but he did not have a perfect college career, with a history of drops too, and might not be worthy of the 16th pick. Just like running back, this is another position where the Packers might wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to select someone like USC's Steve Smith or Washington State's Jason Hill.

Let the RB Marshawn Lynch talk begin! With RB Ahman Green's free agency and Lynch projected as a mid-first round draft pick, it seems like a natural prediction. GM Ted Thompson is still talking about bringing Green back (see above linked article at the bottom) but who knows. With a lot of free cap room around the league, letting Green hit the open market seems like a way to lose him. Green has been in decline since his great 2003 season and should not be brought back at any cost. Maybe this is the time to let him go.

But the Packers would be reaching by drafting Lynch at 16. Lynch should be good, but he might be the next RB J.J. Arrington too. If RB Adrian Peterson fell to 16 then the Packers should dance like New Orleans danced once it was reported that Houston signed DE Mario Williams. Assuming Peterson doesn't fall down to 16 (which he shouldn't) and Thompson doesn't trade up (which seems just as unlikely) the next prospect to discuss is Lynch. Unfortunately for Lynch there are a number of other college running backs who ran as fast or faster than him. Florida State's Lorenzo Booker, Arizona's Chris Henry, Auburn's Kenny Irons, and Ohio State's Antonio Pittman. All of these players might not have Lynch's size or eye-catching 6.21 yards/carry during his final two college seasons, but some of them will last into the 2nd and maybe the 3rd round. Plus if Green does return, then there is good depth for 2007 with RBs Vernand Morency and Noah Herron and another running back doesn't seem like a good fit.

Detroit's GM Matt Millen is the worst GM in the NFL today and I'm so glad the Packers play his team twice every season. Millen was good for another laugh when he designated DT Cory Redding with the franchise tag. Redding had a nice 2006 season after an unremarkable first three seasons in the NFL. Detroit can use the franchise tag on Redding, they don't have another free agent this season worthy of it, and it won't kill their salary cap because they are under it by $23.8 million. Plus if rumors of a purge of players by Rod Marinelli is true, then they might even have more room under the cap to work with.

However, the laugh is because Millen is paying $6.8 million for a defensive tackle that is basically the same player as DT Cullen Jenkins. Both are lighter defensive tackles/ends that are not run stoppers, but provide a good inside pass rush. The Packers will pay Jenkins a lot less in 2006, although that is due in large part because Jenkins has one less year in service time. But if it was announced that the Packers just slapped the franchise tag on Jenkins, most casual fans would probably wonder who he is. Plus putting the tag always upsets the player tagged. Better GMs would have found a way to pay a reasonable price for an unremarkable, but valuable, player and wouldn't have upset the player in the process too.

With all the franchise tags being placed now and the restricted free agent tenders due by March 1, the free agent season is almost upon us. The Packers have a few free agents and a couple important ones. With $28 million in cap room to work with there is enough room to resign everyone and still pursue others, if desired. Resigning DT Cullen Jenkins is important, but putting a 1st or 2nd round tender would probably persuade teams to look elsewhere. It would be a reasonable contract, between $1.3 and $1.85 million, and other teams could probably draft a player similar to him in the 1st or 2nd round anyway and hopefully lose interest. It would be surprising if any of the exclusive rights free agents weren't resigned. Resigning TE Donald Lee was a nice minimum wage signing, although Lee vanished in 2006 after a promising 2005 season.

Of the remaining unrestricted free agents, the only two that should be resigned, but not at any price, are RB Ahman Green and TE David Martin.

Green had a strong 2006 season, but his 4.0 yards/carry is a half-yard under his 2004 and career averages. Both RBs Noah Herron and Vernand Morency had a better average yards/carry than Green in 2006. Also, Green is only a season removed from major knee surgery and is about to turn 30. ESPN's Mel Kiper had his mock draft predictions scrolling at the bottom of ESPN and has the Packers selecting RB Marshawn Lynch, which is a possibility. With Green's strong return in 2006 and the weaker group of free agent running backs this offseason compared to last season's bonanza with RBs Edgerrin James and Shawn Alexander leading the way, it wouldn't be surprising to see some team overpay for Green. Green crossed the 400 carry mark during his outstanding 2003 season (including playoffs) and has never been as good since. Last season he resigned for a modest one year deal, but that won't happen this year. The Packers should let another team pay a premium price for his last few seasons.

If only Martin could stay healthy, then resigning him would be a priority. His 2006 stats look modest, but the offense played its best during the middle of the season when Martin was healthy and starting. They won 3 of 4 games in late October and early November by scoring 34 points at Miami and 31 against Arizona, with a TD pass to Martin in both games. They only scored 10 points at Buffalo, but turnovers ruined an otherwise great offensive day. Then Martin played his last healthy game in the win at Minnesota (against a great Minnesota defense) with 23 points scored. In the last seven games, the offense scored over 20 points (24 points at Seattle, but one TD scored by LB Abdul Hodge) in only two of them. They need Martin or another quality receiving TE like him. His past injury problems should keep contract offers modest so resigning him could be reasonable. Any free agent TE to replace him would have risks (such as Seattle's inconsistent TE Jerramy Stevens), so they should resign Martin but draft a TE to replace him in 2008 if he remains injury prone.

The last several months have been pretty bad down in Miami. First QB Daunte Culpepper comes back too early from his injury and might never be the same player he was back in 2004. Then the future of the team seems to be in the hands of QB Joey Harrington. Then Nick Saban stabs them in the back and takes the head coaching job in Alabama.

Now they've started off the free agency season with a laugh by giving former Packer DT Vonnie Holliday a fat $7 million signing bonus. Looking at his career stats, he has played well for them the last two seasons. But stats are a bit misleading for Holliday. He pads them with big games and then vanishes for the rest of the season.

Holliday's big rookie season in 1998 with 8 sacks in 12 games came because he was playing opposite DE Reggie White when White was named NFL Defensive Player of the Year and then he took a step back in 1999 without White in the lineup anymore. He had 6 sacks in 10 games during his final season with the Packers in 2002, but 3 or 4 of those sacks came in a single game. After he signed a big free agent contract with Kansas City his tackle total collapsed although he had a respectable looking 5.5 sacks until you learn that he had 3 sacks in the first half of the first game of the season. His 2004 stats were dismal until Kansas City released him mid-season. The Packers played Miami last season and I only remember noticing him a couple of times. It seemed like he was only a part time starter. Just an awful signing.

QB Brett Favre will have surgery in the next few weeks. How specific. The only thing interesting about this story is that Favre said he would have the surgery right after the season but it has been rescheduled or delayed until at least March. It shouldn't be a problem, but hopefully Favre doesn't have to wait too much longer.

ESPN says the Packers defense is all beefed up because they signed some future candidates for the practice squad. The only interesting name is Marcus Randall because he is now a linebacker but used to play QB at LSU.

Unfortunately the Packers signed WR Koren Robinson last season because now his updated legal status is reported on Packer news sites. However, if Robinson is sober and in shape then he could help in 2007. The good news for Robinson is that he will only serve 90 days and he should be available by training camp. GM Ted Thompson signed him last season when he knew Robinson had these legal troubles coming so there should be no reason he doesn't keep him now.

There will be some draft news and mock draft chart adjusting in the coming week because the NFL Combine begins on Thursday. Last season DE Mario Williams and TE Vernon Davis shot into the top 10 after the combine. The big problem with the combine is that although some hidden gems can be found, good players like Williams and Davis suddenly become overrated and some players like WR Marques Colston unnecessarily fall. Colston was a small college player who had a serious case of the drops during the combine and promptly fell into the 7th round. Even after only one season Colston is already one of the greatest 7th round bargains ever. Hanging around players for a day or two in perfect dome conditions is only part of the answer. NFL Network has complete coverage if anyone can manage to sit through all the repetitive non-responsive interviews from NFL GMs.

Chicago's defensive coordinator Ron Rivera interviews for the head coaching job in San Diego then goes back to Chicago to learn his contract will not be renewed and he ends up in San Diego as their linebackers coach. Wow. What a major turn of events. It is mostly good news in San Diego when after losing their coordinators and then firing their head coach, they end up with an experienced and well respected coaching staff. The bad news in San Diego is that Norv Turner has never impressed as a head coach and Minnesota's defense improved from 19th overall under Ted Cottrell in 2005 to 4th overall in 2006 without him.

What does Rivera's departure mean for Chicago? Unfortunately for the Packers it doesn't mean too much in 2007 because it is Lovie Smith defense it is unlikely to change. Here is Windy City Gridiron's take on the move. Why did they let Rivera leave? If Rivera gets a big fat new contract as defensive coordinator, then it is possible that Chicago is on the hook for his contract when/if they let Lovie Smith. If Smith is staying long term, then this isn't a problem. Is Smith not staying because he allegedly can't get a new contract extension? Did Smith have a problem with Rivera? Clash of ego and money are not something new in Chicago. George Halas's son Michael McCaskey ran the football and business operations from 1985 until 1999 when his mother "kicked him upstairs". From 1985 until Jerry Angelo was named GM in 2001 (although Mark Hatley was defacto GM during the late 1990s) the McCaskey family didn't feel they needed anyone else. The McCaskey family has been on the right track since 1999 when they hired CEO Ted Phillips who got the new stadium built and hired Mark Hatley. Hatley made some famous bust moves like drafting QB Cade McNown, but he also built the 2001 13-3 Chicago team and drafted LB Brian Urlacher. It has taken Chicago eight years to get where they are but only one offseason of bad front office moves to tear it all down. Is Chicago uninterested in paying any of their front office staff or coaches top dollar? Smith's departure would be a huge loss for Chicago and maybe Rivera's departure is a sign that it could happen.

There will be a million pointless mock drafts posted online between now and mid-April. All of them will be pointless and a waste of time. I know I shouldn't pay any attention to them, but just like staring at car accidents and reading tabloids at the supermarket, I just can't help myself. I ripped a Yahoo! mock draft for being ridiculous, but ProFootballTalk's Mock Draft 1.0 is much more realistic. ProFootballTalk says the Packers will take N.C. State's DT DeMarcus Tyler. That is possible and a good need area to fill despite the progress shown by DTs Cullen Jenkins and Corey Williams late in the season, but it is unlikely GM Ted Thompson would let California's RB Marshawn Lynch slip past them. Even if the Packers resign RB Ahman Green and keep RB Vernand Morency, Green is almost past 30 and Morency had some problems with fumbles and staying healthy. Lynch might not be needed for 2007, but he could be the heart of the offense by 2008.

One thing that surprised me in both mock drafts was the high rankings given to Michigan's DT Alan Branch and Arkansas' DE Jamaal Anderson. I watched most of the games played by the Wisconsin Badgers last season. They were a great overall team and they had a great offensive line. Not all of their linemen are going to play in the NFL, but they all have NFL size and are well coached. The Wisconsin offensive line was outplayed only twice last season; at Michigan and in the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas. Wisconsin managed just enough offense to win their bowl game, but it wasn't created by the offensive line. Anderson and his teammates dominated the Badgers O-line. LT Joe Thomas played well, but he was the exception. The only reservation with Anderson, and maybe with Branch too, is that they appear to be great players but they are definitely playing alongside some good-to-great players too. Are they really that good or are their teammates helping them look that good?

ProFootballTalk was speculating (no permalink for the February 11th post) that the Packers will make a serious push to sign unrestricted free agent LB Adalius Thomas. Thomas is a great player. Michael David Smith at Football Outsiders wrote this about Thomas: "Thomas is like a chameleon. Lines him up on the line of scrimmage and he attacks the quarterback like a defensive end. Line him up as much 10 yards off the line and he covers wide receivers like a safety. He’s very tough against the run but quick enough to keep up if he’s called on to defend downfield passes. He’s also the gunner on the Ravens’ punt team. Sometimes it just seems unfair for a 270-pounder to move like Thomas does." Adding Thomas alongside LBs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk might give the Packers the best starting group of linebackers in the NFL, but at 270 lbs., ProFootballTalk heard that the Packers would play Thomas at defensive end. It is always good news to hear the Packers want to pursue a great player, but there are a couple of problems. First the Packers would tie up a huge amount of cap room on defensive ends. DE KGB took up 5% of last season's cap and the team would take an almost $5 million cap hit if he is released. Then if Thomas plays at linebacker, he would block the improving LB Brady Poppinga and probably turn promising LB Abdul Hodge into a permanent second stringer. What is the point of drafting a linebacker in the 3rd round if he never has a chance to start? As great as Thomas is, the Packers would be better using cap room and money to resign current players like Barnett and target positions that could really use the help like safety, wide receiver, and tight end.

In honor of Valentine's Day it is sweet to read that the NFL power couple of Aaron James Hawk and Laura Quinn (sister of QB Brady Quinn) is planning a March 17th wedding despite the fact that they are already married. Unfortunately there is nothing too juicy about being formally married right after graduation for health and education benefits, and then waiting until the NFL season is over to throw a big celebration. Hopefully a good (and safe) time will be had by all in attendance.

Shocking but true, the Packers didn't give CB Al Harris any guaranteed money to sign a contract extension. It will be a 50% raise for him over the next three years, but he will still only be making $12 million over that time. The extension would be crazy for Harris to sign if he was an unrestricted free agent, but since he is under contract for the next three seasons, he doesn't have much leverage to negotiate. Still his extension is an NFL bargain for a (should be) Pro Bowl cornerback. Just ask Minnesota, who gave CB Fred Smoot $10 million to sign in 2005 but will now kick him to the street after two mediocre seasons later.

In 2005, CB Al Harris played outstanding for most of the season until he faded in the last few games. He held out of some minicamp activities last spring trying force the Packers to give him a new contract. At first he appeared slighted that new CB Charles Woodson was being paid so much more than then him, but it was then rumored that he was upset that DE Aaron Kampman received such a huge contract. Harris didn't look too sharp the first few games of the season, but he was outstanding afterwards. It is not a good idea to give a cornerback big money after he turns 30 years old, but Harris has been great the last two seasons. At age 32 he doesn't appear to be slowing down and he has never been a burner. He might still be a solid starting cornerback even if he loses a step. The unofficial salary cap says Harris made $2.5 million last season after he initially received a $4.375 million signing bonus back in late 2004 when he signed his current contract. Harris's current contract has been a steal for the Packers. Mediocre cornerbacks routinely receive $10+ million signing bonuses today. But it is unclear if the roster bonuses are guaranteed. If Harris is hurt and his released anytime during the next three seasons, then the guaranteed roster bonuses would be a huge salary cap hit. Usually roster bonuses are not guaranteed, but Harris would have wanted guaranteed money to sign an extension. Maybe some more news will be available about it later this week. The good news is that Harris got his new contract and won't be any distraction next season.

(AP Photo/Ronen Zilberman)

It usually isn't an exciting game to watch, but I am bummed that I missed watching the Pro Bowl. After not having any players in last year's game, the Packers had WR Donald Driver and DE Aaron Kampman. From the box score, it appears that both players played a bit since Driver had three catches and Kampman four tackles. I think the most annoying part of the Pro Bowl is that it feels like it is always interviewing someone on the side lines and there is nothing more annoying than side line reporters.

It is good to read that the Packers and LB Nick Barnett are on good terms regarding a contract extension. It is reasonable that both sides will wait and see what LB Lance Briggs receives this offseason in free agency. Off the top of my head, it would seem that Barnett should receive about $15 million in guaranteed money, which is what DE Aaron Kampman received last year. The market has been clearly set for linebackers in their mid-20s. It seemed like LB E.J. Henderson received too much when Minnesota gave him $10 million in guaranteed money last month, but then Jacksonville gave LB Daryl Smith $10 million too. Neither Henderson or Smith have stats as good as Barnett over the last three seasons so he should be paid more than both of them. However, Barnett still isn't as good as Briggs who is exceptional in pass coverage. Football Outsiders reported that Chicago used Briggs basically as the nickel back last season. Briggs could easily receive $20 million in guaranteed money so then the $15 million I projected sounds about right for Barnett.

Wade Phillips has failed twice before as a head coach, but Dallas feels he is the best man for the job. Phillips is a good coach and he prefers to use a 3-4 defense, the scheme already in place in Dallas, which was probably why he was chosen over someone like Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera who uses a 4-3 defense and cover-2 defensive system. Unfortunately Phillips is known for coaching good regular season teams that fail in the playoffs, exhibited by 14-2 San Diego's 1st round playoff loss this season. Plus at age 59, he fails Bill Simmons's Speed Limit Coaching Corollary. Simmons says that any team that has a head coach over age 55 should be worried because the success rate for these coaches doesn't seem high. "Maybe coaching isn't a young man's game, but it's definitely a younger man's game" says Simmons.

I was thinking about the ideal coach because I was recently re-reading Rob Reischel's book Packers Essential. He discusses Vince Lombardi who was 46 in 1959 when the Packers hired him. Lombardi was a top NFL assistant with the New York Giants who believed he never would have a head coaching opportunity after getting passed over in New York. "He had prepared for that job for a long time," said former Packer Norm Masters. He was young, experienced, and knew exactly what he would do if he ever became a head coach.

While an NFL team is unlikely to find the next Lombardi, teams should be looking for someone with experience and past success, but who has never had a head coaching opportunity. Looking around the NFL at the top offenses, why doesn't Tom Moore's name ever get mentioned as a possible head coach? Maybe he is happy in Indianapolis and he does flunk the Speed Limit Coaching Corollary, but as the offensive coordinator of one of the best offenses in NFL history over the last 9 seasons, wouldn't you at least want to talk with him? How about Bob Bratkowski in Cincinnati? He has built Cincinnati's offense from the ground up and every important offensive player has been drafted since Bratkowski was hired in 2001. Cam Cameron was hired in Miami after a great season coordinating San Diego's offense, but both him and Marty Mornhinweg in Philadelphia have had previously unspectacular results as head coaches. If you ignore coaches that have failed in previous head coaching tries then you would miss some pretty good coaches like Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy. However, for every Belichick and Dungy, there are many retread coaches that never again succeed. I would look for the assistant coach with NFL experience, but first time head coach, and leave the retreads behind.

Yahoo! Sports writer John Murphy tried his hand at a mock draft and it was funny. Alan Branch and Jamaal Anderson in the top 5? It is debatable whether either player was the best defensive lineman on his own college team last season. They are both middle of the 1st round draft choices and either would be a good selection for the Packers at pick number 16. It would be wonderful if RB Adrian Peterson falls to the Packers at number 16, but there is no way Peterson should slip out of the top 5.

This is a non-Packer related post because it is signing day for college football teams. Watching the ticker on ESPN, it did not list the Wisconsin Badgers as one of the top 20 signing classes. Of course, trying to project how high school players to college has to be just as hard, if not harder, than projecting college players to the NFL. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has a short bio on each of the players signed by the Badgers. It is a good sign is that Bret Bielema has a player at every position and is providing depth to his entire roster. That is a good draft strategy for NFL teams too. For instance, when the Packers offensive line was great between 2001 and 2004, the Packers didn't draft an offensive lineman on the first day of the draft. When Gs Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle left in 2005, they had no quality depth to replace them and signed two veteran free agents who quickly flamed out. Last year, GM Ted Thompson did well to draft Gs Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz on the first day and improved the line, but he was lucky that both of them were able to step right in and contribute. WR Nick Toon caught my attention, since he is the son of former Pro Bowl and Badger great WR Al Toon. The only position where the Badgers didn't add much depth was at offensive lineman, but the single OT signed, Josh Oglesby, is arguably the best in the high school offensive lineman in the country.

The headline says the Packers are not going on a free agent spending spree, but it is misleading. GM Ted Thompson isn't going to throw big money at a free agent or two as quid pro quo for QB Brett Favre's return. Since Thompson's first draft choice was QB Aaron Rodgers, I wondered last season if Thompson wasn't trying to encourage Favre's retirement by blowing up the team and letting Rodgers take over. However, it is unlikely that Thompson could survive long if Favre does retire in a way that makes it seem like Thompson is pushing Favre out.

Thompson will be active in free agency if 2006 is any guide. Last season he made one good signing that worked out as well as was expected with NT Ryan Pickett. One signing that seemed bad and turned out bad with S Marquand Manuel. Finally he made one big signing that looked like a disaster, but turned out to be one of the best free agent signings by any team with CB Charles Woodson. He made a good non-signing by letting K Ryan Longwell go to Minnesota. There aren't as many holes this offseason, but there are still are some free agents that should be targeted.

There is a need for depth at wide receiver. WRs Greg Jennings and Ruvell Martin might be good next season, but for the most part neither was good enough to start last season. Although Tennessee will probably overpay to keep him, WR Drew Bennett could be the most likely target from this list of wide receivers. Not that Bennett is any good, Football Outsiders has him ranked as the 56th best WR last season, but Bennett is 6'5" and Mike McCarthy prefers tall receivers based on reports I read last offseason. Bennett's biggest problem is the awful 47% of intended passes that he caught last season. You can't blame QB Vince Young either, because Bennett caught an awful 53% in 2005. On the 2005 list, you can see WR Robert Ferguson's awful 47% catch percentage in 2005 and understand why I am not considering Ferguson has a legitimate option in 2007. Based on the Football Outsiders list from 2006, the Packers should seriously consider making an offer to restricted free agent WRs D.J. Hackett and Patrick Crayton or unrestricted free agent WRs Kevin Curtis and Keenan McCardell. McCardell is one of the few players left in the NFL that is almost as old as Favre, but McCardell still caught 71% of the passes intended for him.

Maybe the player most likely to be signed is TE Jerramy Stevens. Just like Manuel last season, he has that connection to Seattle from when Thompson was in their front office. It would seem impossible that Stevens will stay in Seattle after becoming a notorious pass dropping machine ever since the Super Bowl. Although Stevens has concerns, he is no Manuel, and he was one of the best TEs in the NFL in 2005. There is a major need to upgrade at tight end to find someone who can catch the ball. Stevens was one of the top 10 worst regular tight ends in 2006 when he managed to stay healthy, but he was still three times better than TE Bubba Franks who is parked dead last on that list. Stevens is still young, needs a change of scenery, and could return to his 2005 form. For a contract that limits the long term cap damage if he doesn't work out, he could be a good signing.

Could WR Randy Moss become a Packer? I couldn't find the Chris Mortenson report on espn.com to confirm that rumor, but it would not be a surprise me to find Oakland shopping Moss around for a 3rd round pick plus a veteran receiver. After the disaster 2006 season Moss had as a clubhouse disruption and his obvious slacking off on the field, it would seem optimistic that they could find someone willing to surrender anything higher than a 4th round (second day) pick for Moss and even then it might be conditional on Moss not being cut. It was widely felt that Seattle overpaid by trading a 1st round pick for WR Deion Branch, and the Packers only received a 2nd round pick for WR Javon Walker. Usually the team trading away the big salary takes the salary cap hit, so if the pick is conditional it might be a low risk trade for another team, as far as the salary cap goes, and the possibility of release might even get Moss's attention.

The Packers desperately need a veteran wide receiver to either push WRs Greg Jennings and Ruvell Martin or start alongside WR Donald Driver. The Packers probably have the salary cap room to make the trade. Supposedly Chris Mortenson reported that QB Brett Favre asked the team to consider it, which seems possible since Favre has to remember how good Moss can be. If Favre was a strong locker room presence, then he could probably keep Moss in check, but from everything I have read, Favre doesn't have a lot of friends on the team anymore. That probably has something to do with the fact that most of the team is closer in age to his eldest daughter than to him. A talent like Moss has to be considered, but it would be better to play it safe and see what the free agent market would offer instead.

Do players make the Pro Bowl after a good season, or do Pro Bowl players make it a good season? After having no Pro Bowl players in 2005, the Packers have two in 2006; WR Donald Driver and DE Aaron Kampman. If you look at the list of past Pro Bowl selections from the Packers, there are some players that probably made it because the Packers had a good season. TE Bubba Franks made it in 2003 because he had made it the previous two seasons and the NFC was not loaded with great tight ends. G Marco Rivera had some struggles in 2004, but still was selected to the Pro Bowl. However, both Driver and Kampman really earned their spots in 2006. Driver should have been shut down by opposing defenses by mid-season once it was obvious that QB Brett Favre didn't have any other receiving threat on the team. Meanwhile Kampman continues to improve each season. In 2004 and 2005, he was usually solid and had a big game two or three times per season. But in 2006, he had a big game every week, except for two or three times when he didn't make an impact.

QB Brett Favre's return is great news. It was understandable that Favre would not return after the 2005 season because it was his first losing season, head coach Mike Sherman was fired, and there were going to be a lot of new faces in 2006. I wondered if Favre was risking his life playing behind an offensive line likely to feature at least two rookie starters in a new zone blocking scheme. Instead Favre survived the season, the offensive line played much better than expected, and the running game came back to life. Still the offense was below average last season. Commentators like the Sports Guy through Favre was done, but Favre didn't have an above average receiver other than WR Donald Driver. Maybe RB Ahman Green was above average, but Green was used only as the checkdown receiver. WR Greg Jennings had a big start, but was hurt or ineffective for the last three quarters of the season. TE Bubba Franks was a disaster. Welcome Favre back and hope GM Ted Thompson finds a quality receiver or tight end in the draft, or more likely in free agency, that can help Favre in 2007.

I hate all the stuff leading up to the Super Bowl. All the pregame analysis is generally a bunch of hot air. If ESPN had Ron Jaworski breaking down film everynight, I would probably watch that show, but unfortunately they usually have the embarrasing Sean Salisbury talking loudly at the camera. The advertising tie-ins are everywhere, QB Drew Brees couldn't go onto Dan Patrick's radio show without making sure he was allowed to pitch that he is Visa's NFL spokesman in Miami this week. However, when I read that the Navy is inviting a few Packers onto an aircraft carrier to watch the Super Bowl with the sailors onboard, well that is cool.

The Packers resigned long snapper Rob Davis. He only plays on special teams during punting and field goal opportunities, but I can't remember a blown long snap since Davis took over in 1996 and when the Packers kick coverage struggled during the middle of the season, it seemed like Davis was always the first guy down the field. Plus it is cool that he will turn 40 next season and is still playing well.

The Packers are drafting 16th overall in the upcoming April draft. Last April, Miami drafted CB Jason Allen who didn't start, but looking at his game log had a very good game when Miami upset Chicago. In 2005, Houston drafted DE Travis Johnson, who everyone might have forgotten about because he only has one sack in two seasons, and appears on his way to becoming a bust. However, in 2004 Philadelphia drafted a pretty good G Shawn Andrews who has started every game the last two seasons. It is even better in 2003 when Pittsburgh drafted Pro Bowl S Troy Polamalu, but not in 2002 when Cleveland drafted RB William Green. Before that was WR Santana Moss by the NY Jets and LB Julian Peterson by San Francisco. Excluding Allen at this point, one thing that stands out is that teams that frequently make the playoffs (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, and San Francisco back in 2000) selected quality players at number 16, while perennially bad Houston and Cleveland picked poorly. It is a lot to hang on one draft selection, but if GM Ted Thompson selects a quality player in the first round, it might be a very telling sign whether he is going to build a perennial playoff team or doormat.

Oops. I blew it and forgot to comment on the Packers 2007 schedule when it was posted at the beginning of January. The Packers eight wins in 2006 was due in large part to the weak schedule they played. Excluding the annual conference games, in 2006 they played all the NFC West, AFC East, plus New Orleans and Philadelphia. In 2007, they will play the tougher NFC East and AFC West, plus Carolina and St. Louis. At first glance that 2007 schedule looks harder than the 2006 one. However, they will still play the same NFC North schedule that provided 5 of their 8 wins in 2006. With both Detroit and Minnesota unlikely to show much improvement in 2007, it would seem likely that the Packers would be favored to win those 4 games again. Then the Packers would have to go 4-8 against their remaining schedule to match 2006's 8-8 record. However, all the 2007 opponents except Chicago, Philadelphia and San Diego have major issues or a coaching transition to address next season (San Diego has a major issue, but it concerns how to win a playoff game with Marty Schottenheimer) and it wouldn't be surprising to expect the Packers to instead go 6-6 against those opponents. That would project a 2007 record of 10-6 and that usually is good enough to make the playoffs, as it was in 2006. Assuming the QB and RB positions have stability next season, or at least they do not become a problem, then there should be a lot of optimism looking forward to next season.

It was announced that former Packers WR Robert Brooks and S LeRoy Butler will be inducted into the Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame. The HOF inducts some players that might not strike you as HOF material, such as the 2005 induction of RB Edgar Bennett. Although Bennett might be a great guy, he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry for his career and only reached 4.0 yards per carry once in his career. As great as the mid-90s Packer teams were, they had some serious lack of depth at running back during Favre's MVP seasons. RB Dorsey Levens had his moments, but he really was only good during 1996 while outstanding in 1997. Brooks suffers from the same problem as Levens because he only had two good seasons, 1995 and 1998, plus one outstanding season in 1996, before injuries cut his career short. Actually Levens had the same problem when his 1998 injury basically ended the productive part of his career. Maybe Levens should have been inducted at the same time as Brooks. However, Butler is a slam dunk HOF inductee. He was probably the 2nd best player on the outstanding 1996 season defense after DE Reggie White. Butler's best seasons were outstanding plus he had a long and productive 11 season career. Maybe he should be inducted just for starting the Lambeau Leap.

One coach left the NFC North when Pittsburgh hired Minnesota's defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin as their new head coach. The first thing mentioned on ESPN during the Tomlin story was that Minnesota had the number 1 ranked run defense in the NFL last season. If that is why Tomlin got the job, he owes DT Pat Williams. Williams destroyed C Scott Wells in both meetings and destroyed the Packers run offense. This is not to trash Wells, who played very well in the other 14 games when he didn't have to face Williams. How DT Kevin Williams made it to the Pro Bowl over Pat Williams is a complete mystery. I wasn't too impressed that Tomlin couldn't figure out a way to cover WR Donald Driver with someone other than a linebacker when Driver killed them in the slot at Minnesota. Hopefully Tomlin will offer the defensive coordinator's job in Pittsburgh to Pat Williams so the Packers will have a chance to run against Minnesota in 2007.

The Packers were one of the youngest NFL teams last season. They ended up leading the league in games played by rookies with 66. LB A.J. Hawk and OL Daryn Colledge got deserved NFL all-rookie team honors, but WR Greg Jennings didn't deserve it. Jennings was one of the worst receivers in the NFL last season, ending with his last game vs. Minnesota when he only caught 1 of 13 passes thrown his way. His first few games, prior to his injury, were very good, but he never played well after his return. It would have been very surprising if Jennings was a strong player in his rookie season, but he really has a lot of room for improvement in 2007.

The Packers front office might get a little thinner if Reggie McKenzie is hired as Tennessee's new GM. McKenzie has been a hold over since the days of GM Ron Wolf. Apparently McKenzie got along with Ted Thompson during Thompson's days in Green Bay in the 1990s because and McKenzie has remained and is the highly ranked Director of Pro Personnel. It isn't obvious that McKenzie's departure would hurt the Packers. Tennessee decided to let long time GM Floyd Reese resign earlier this month. It would seem like a challenging GM position since Jeff Fisher just received a contract extension and he would be saddled with the decision to bet the franchise on the talents of QB Vince Young for the near future. Young made some spectacular plays in 2006, but overall he did not play that well.